Tour de France Poll: Hautacam climbing time

[Red Rick]

Boys, it's time for some quality opinion polling.

Closest estimate gets a coveted like by me.

When in doubt, we use the timing by @jens_attacks from his website.

Beware - you cannot change your vote. Gotta lock it in.

 

[Red Rick]

33:51 locked in

Come on guys, poll should be the climbing time.

33:51

 

[QueenStagiaire]

34:09

 

[Barnacle Bill]

34:20

 

[peterfin]

33:40

 

[meat puppet]

34:19 is the way

 

[Andre]

34:15

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

33:33

 

[Devil's Elbow]

34:40, after a little bit of deliberate sandbagging in the final kilometre in an attempt to prevent the fallout from breaking arguably the most notorious record in cycling,

 

[Didinho]

Rechtschreibfehler 33:33
peterfin 33:40
Red Rick 33:51
Didinho 34:02
QueenStagiaire 34:09
Andre 34:15
meat puppet 34:19
Barnacle Bill 34:20
Devil’s Elbow 34:40

 

[Red Rick]

34:40, after a little bit of deliberate sandbagging in the final kilometre in an attempt to prevent the fallout from breaking arguably the most notorious record in cycling,

I wouldn't think the subject of these records and who holds them would really be a talking point for the riders. I'm fairly sure they smash the base and then one drops the other quickly, the sky is essentially the limit, and the only thing going against it is that PdB and Isola last year had significant tailwinds that affect current predictions maybe too much.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I wouldn't think the subject of these records and who holds them would really be a talking point for the riders

Which is why it will be a call by the DS.

 

[YavorD]

I voted on braking the record, but I reconsider.
I don't think they will drop each other and if they don't, they won't ride full gas.
35:10.

I know it sounds ridiculous, right?

 

[zlev11]

record should be broken but not by much i think. i'll say 34:27 for Pogacar and 35:08 for Vingegaard.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Don't think any of the two boys have enough balls to go full at the bottom:
35:10

 

[Cookster15]

the only thing going against it is that PdB and Isola last year had significant tailwinds that affect current predictions maybe too much.

PdB was also fast because Jorgenson drilled it from the bottom.

Nobody is considering today's crash? I would think that would have a slowing effect on Pogacar? I refrain.

 

[Tonton]

34'50". Many are hungry, many have something to lose, the first 5 km may not be that fast. The last 5 km will be record-fast.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

34:40

Sub 33:30 would be on with ideal conditions (wind from the west and not quite as hot)

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The record will be broken if Visma set a strong pace from the bottom and one of the mutants manages to drop another a few km before the line (either Vingo & Visma breaks Pogi or the latter counters Vingo like it was in PdB last year). If they stay together for too long there'll be some slowdowns and no new record. This is the scenario I'm predicting: 35'20''.

 

[Red Rick]

The record will be broken if Visma set a strong pace from the bottom and one of the mutants manages to drop another a few km before the line (either Vingo & Visma breaks Pogi or the latter counters Vingo like it was in PdB last year). If they stay together for too long there'll be some slowdowns and no new record. This is the scenario I'm predicting: 35'20''.

For me the big question is how much are the times on Plateau de Beille and Isola 2000 product of circumstance with PdB having 1 mutant pull the other like crazy for 5km and Isola in general coming off a false flat downhill that makes for a perfect rest before a big tailwind MTF that was attacked full gas like a third of the way in.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For me the big question is how much are the times on Plateau de Beille and Isola 2000 product of circumstance with PdB having 1 mutant pull the other like crazy for 5km and Isola in general coming off a false flat downhill that makes for a perfect rest before a big tailwind MTF that was attacked full gas like a third of the way in.

I think people in this thread are too optimistic regarding beating Riis record. PdB was huge but it doesn't happen every day (Isola was also great but probably near Riis in performance level). As you said, circumstances were favourable as well. Plus the fact that #1 favorite crashed yesterday decreases the chances too. As for the monster pull from the bottom: Visma is able to do it again but I'm not sure they will be as eager to see Jonas with Pogi on his wheel for so long. The record is more likely to fall if Pogacar is either totally fine or strongly affected.

 

[Red Rick]

I think people in this thread are too optimistic regarding beating Riis record. PdB was huge but it doesn't happen every day (Isola was also great but probably near Riis in performance level). As you said, circumstances were favourable as well. Plus the fact that #1 favorite crashed yesterday decreases the chances too. As for the monster pull from the bottom: Visma is able to do it again but I'm not sure they will be as eager to see Jonas with Pogi on his wheel for so long. The record is more likely to fall if Pogacar is either totally fine or strongly affected.

Isola wasn't that far behind PdB in metrics, and it was at higher altitude. I also think the Jorgenson pull was slower than ideal and not exactly irreplicable. And it doesn't help you have 1 domestique on the entire climb.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Isola wasn't that far behind PdB in metrics, and it was at higher altitude. I also think the Jorgenson pull was slower than ideal and not exactly irreplicable. And it doesn't help you have 1 domestique on the entire climb.

TBH PdB was almost a perfect team time trial by Visma + Pogi (if you want to optimize team leader time: Pogi's). And there were two domestiques on that climb, not one (Vingo was the second!). Pogacar said that wattage was crazy especially during Jorgenson's pull so it wasn't too slow.

 

[Miha81]

34:55 only because I believe that two main GC contenders will neutralize each other on the climb

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

34:59