I more of less agree with this, though I'd put Pinot higher, though maybe I'm too optimistic for him. My list goes:Tier 1: Bernal, Roglic
Tier 2: GT, Quintana, S. Yates
Tier 3: Pinot, Kruijswijk, Pogacar, Buchmann
Tier 4: Landa, Mas, Lopez, Bardet, Uran, Mollema, Porte, Higuita, Aru
Tier who-the-hell-knows: Froome, Dumoulin.
Of course, being such a strange season, with few racing days before the Tour and almost 5 months without races, surprises might occur. I think guys like Bernal and Roglic have shown a very high base level in the past few years which leads me to believe they will be very good no matter what. Someone like GT is a bit more unpredicatable.
- Froome (won't be surprised if he DNFs or gets in mid-teens and won't be completely shocked if he wins but I think 5 is a fair bet)
- Dumoulin (does not sound like a winner in his interviews and half the game is mental...)