Fact first, then fiction
OK. Lets figure out starting from scratch who is in and who is out.
First the limit. It is 28 with 0 neo-pros, 30 with 2+ neo-pros. As Jesse Sergent and Ben King from Radioshack have already been mentioned in the official communique, that sets the upper limit at 30.
Now lets start with Radioshack. Those mentioned in the official announcement are 1) Kloden 2) Horner 3) Brajkovic 4) Busche 5) Zubeldia 6) Oliveira 7) Sargeant 8) King. That is 8. Plus Ben Hermans and Gregory Rast have been signed from Radioshack separately, so lets say they stay too. That is 10.
That leaves room for up to 20 more from the Leopard squad. Lets leave the final three seats open and pick 17.
Again, facts first. Those mentioned officially in either of two communiques are 11) A Schleck 12) F Schleck 13) Cancellara 14) Wagner 15) Bennati 16) Fuglsang.
So that makes 16. Now with the fiction, in a manner of speaking.
I think 17) Monfort 18) Zaugg and 19) Posthooma will walk in. 20) Denifl is way too talented a climber at 23 years to let go (he was their best rider in Colorado already), and 21) Jens Voigt is going to be on the team come what may (no way the Schlecks and Cancellara will accept his departure). He is leading the team in the Tour of Britain, for God's sake.
That makes 21. I think these 21 riders are pretty much certain to form the nucleus of the team.
Now comes the fictitious fiction. None of the remaining face guarantees, though I will proceed to pick the most likely.
22) Gerdemann is the kind of moody rider who may just walk, but he has grown very close to Frank Schleck and become his regular training partner, so I guess he could hang on too if he accepts to ride Giro and Vuelta (he has no Tour ticket in 2012 in this team). A rider who wont be nudged out in my opinion, but will not be pulled back either if he heads to the door.
23) Fabian Wegmann 24) Martin Pedersen
Both should stay put, though one cannot be sure. The Leopard backbone will probably want to keep them, but I am not so sure on what JB would want for these two. My guess is unless they volunteer to go, they will stay.
25) Will Clarke 26) Giacomo Nizzolo 27) Dominic Klemme
Clarke is a very talented Australian and Nizzolo an upcoming 22-year-old sprinter, neither of whom will be costing too much money. I don't see many names in favour of whom you would want to discard these promising lads. Cancellara may want to hang on to Klemme. At 24, he can time trial and ride the cobbles very well. Again, unlikely to be on a heavy contract. All three should be on the minimum 47,000, or a little more at best.
That just about takes it to 27, and it would be a very strong 27. As I said at the start, I am leaving the final three seats open.
It will be a mad dash right here with Stamsnijder and Anders Lund leading the race. Of course, more spots could open up if the likes of Gerdemann or even Fuglsang decide to look elsewhere. So there, you have it! Watsay!