Reasoned decision thread (includes speculation)

[thehog]

I’m guessing. Additional positives, Spanish labs covering up and hiding positives and swapping urine. Further payments to the UCI and others. Use of high end drugs from clinical trials.

 

[BroDeal]

I assume that LeMond dumped a ton of information on the USADA. He spent $1M+ on his lawsuit against Trek. I cannot imagine he would sit on all the material that was gathered. How Armstrong treated LeMond would be a text book case of how Armstrong wielded power to prevent his doping from coming to light in a timely manner and why the statute of limitations should not apply.

If I were writing the decision, I would stress the 1999 corticosteroid positive. That is a clear cut situation where Armstrong's doping should have resulted in a sanction. Punishment was avoided by committing forgery. That is way beyond just lying to anti-doping officials. The team manufactured evidence to excuse the positive, and there are mutliple witness who can verify that. This situation is probably the strongest argument for tolling the SOL.

 

[BroDeal]

From the other thread.

Assuming the USADA decides to go there to support tolling the SOL, the most damaging stuff will be the lengths that Armstrong went to keep his secrets. While the cycling public that is clued in knows it, it will come as a big surprise to outsiders that Armstrong did things like hiring people to smear LeMond on the Internet. Ultimately it will be acts like that that will destroy Armstrong's reputation among the prols. The doping can be dismissed as him doing what everyone else was doing. The non-doping stuff cannot.

 

[sniper]

to be sure, why are you guessing those labs will be spanish?

 

[thehog]

to be sure, why are you guessing those labs will be spanish?

Just a hunch. Could be others.

 

[Merckx index]

I'm guessing...another delay till Christmas.

Seriously, IMO very little that wasn’t in Tyler’s book. Additional witnesses (beyond the ones we all know or are quite sure about), some of whom may have seen separate incidents of the same kinds of things Tyler saw. How much George says will be very important.

Evidence against UCI: the word of Tyler and maybe several other riders that LA told them he got the positive dismissed. No evidence from Saugy or anyone else at the Swiss lab beyond what has already been reported. But possibly damning testimony that riders were warned ahead of time of tests. At the very least, UCI will be revealed to be grossly incompetent, at most, there may be reasonable evidence of favorable treatment. The question is whether it will be selective in favor of LA/Postal, or general, aimed at trying to reduce embarrassing positives throughout the peloton.

New drugs: possible witness testimony (Tyler has alluded to this), but no hard evidence. Witness testimony may possibly be very compelling and damaging, but I tend to think it will fall short of proof in the way that transfusions and EPO will be proven..

Lab evidence of blood doping: What MA has said. Evidence consistent with transfusions, no beyond reasonable doubt statistics. BUT there may be witness testimony that correlates with the time of dodgy blood values. I expect USADA has worked over these times and dates very carefully, and has spent a lot of time trying to prove an association between testimony and dates of suspicious values.

All in all, I don’t expect to be surprised with something unexpected and shocking. But I hope I’m wrong about this.

I assume that LeMond dumped a ton of information on the USADA. He spent $1M+ on his lawsuit against Trek. I cannot imagine he would sit on all the material that was gathered. How Armstrong treated LeMond would be a text book case of how Armstrong wielded power to prevent his doping from coming to light in a timely manner and why the statute of limitations should not apply...

Assuming the USADA decides to go there to support tolling the SOL, the most damaging stuff will be the lengths that Armstrong went to keep his secrets. While the cycling public that is clued in knows it, it will come as a big surprise to outsiders that Armstrong did things like hiring people to smear LeMond on the Internet. Ultimately it will be acts like that that will destroy Armstrong's reputation among the prols. The doping can be dismissed as him doing what everyone else was doing. The non-doping stuff cannot.

The problem I have with all this stuff is that it wasn’t mentioned or alluded to in the original charging statement. It could be part of an appendix to the case, but it does not seem to figure in any of the main charges against LA.

 

[sniper]

Just a hunch. Could be others.

ok, thought i had missed something somewhere.

anyway, good hunch of course.

 

[JimmyFingers]

Best title of a thread ever

 

[BroDeal]

The problem I have with all this stuff is that it wasn’t mentioned or alluded to in the original charging statement. It could be part of an appendix to the case, but it does not seem to figure in any of the main charges against LA.

There is almost nothing mentioned in the charging document. It is pretty much devoid of details. The intimidation was mentioned.

The USADA has to support tolling the SOL.

 

[peterst6906]

The USADA has to support tolling the SOL.

For the 7 tours to be stripped, I would speculate that there must be a lot of reasoning to support tolling the SOL in the decision.

 

[Sarcastic Wet Trout]

Here's some of the more damning testamony:

Tygart: Did Lance really pass all 500+ tests?

Kristin: No, that's not exactly true. Actually I faked them all.

 

[Fortyninefourteen]

My guess:

1) Mole from within UCI.
2) People have forgotten about Ochowicz....
3) Carmichael
4) WAG's
5) Pharma insiders
6) Armstrong 'client list'
7) Supporting cast of soigneurs, drivers, minions.
8) USAC mole.

 

[Briant_Gumble]

I'm guessing...another delay till Christmas.

Seriously, IMO very little that wasn’t in Tyler’s book. Additional witnesses (beyond the ones we all know or are quite sure about), some of whom may have seen separate incidents of the same kinds of things Tyler saw. How much George says will be very important.

A.

If there isn't to be much more revealed beyond what was said in Tylers book then why did Tygart say what he did to L'Equipe. He seemed to hint he was aware of what was in there but he had more damning evidence/reveleations.

I'm expecting celebrity witnesses but some kind of bombshell probably on the witness intimidation front.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Lance is Numero uno

 

[python]

if i was writing the reasoned decision, i would make it as heavy on legalese as possible (recall, am not a lawyer). this would be because there is the need to leave enough room for further maneuvering should the unpredictable uci appeal to cas while allowing myself enough space for fighting the pr war with armstrong and the uci which will inevitably follow.

i would also follow the general outline of the charging letter structure as if it was my table of contents…

i would NOT release any witness names but would call them witness A, B, C etc.. said this and that. I would not provide ANY specific detail of the uci favoritism to armstrong except reiterating the facts already communicated, adding some spice and hinting at many more details available with the hooks like ‘witness A confirmed witnesses B and C regarding the tour tds epo positive and the corticosteroid positive‘. this is because the uci needs to be warned against going to cas but not given too much ammo that may be needed to shoot them down in front of cas should they appeal or be foolish enough to go continue suing kimmage.

i am with brodeal re. the document featuring heavily the reasons why the sol was waived.

I also believe there will be a fresh confirmation via a modern test of the 1999 six epo positives uncovered by l’equipe.

iow, the usada needs to say enough and to say it strongly about the Armstrong doping and the attempts to conceal the doping. At the same time, the usada should NOT say too much because the adjudication is not over since the uci can not be trusted.

 

[Velodude]

Here's some of the more damning testamony:

RE: Kristen faking Armstrong's tests. This may suggest a urine substitution by Kristen.

It would have been real comical for the UCI, who had control of all tests during that Armstrong relationship/marriage, to find the results of a test indicated LA was pregnant!

 

[DirtyWorks]

I've mentioned this elsewhere, I wonder how much they can publish about the terrorists at the uci. Specific to wonderboy's case, probably plenty. If we are lucky, johann's and pepe's case will bring more to light.

The scale of the conspiracy will hopefully deeply implicate wiesel and co.

There is still the matter of the fantastic lengths the uci has gone to protect the myth. Let's hope whatever it is that wonderboy has on hein comes to light.

 

[Berzin]

There are still 6 days left until the deadline, but that doesn't mean any details included in the reasoned decision will be made public for a while longer.

This isn't going to be resolved anytime soon. I believe further speculation over the same details is just going to frustrate people more on either side of the fence.

Until we get something new, we just have to wait.

 

[ToreBear]

I'm hoping for a Weisel, Amgen, USAMMA, DARPA connection from the 1980s. But corruption within the UCI would be ok too.

 

[Race Radio]

He will blame it all on the tobacco lobby

I am going on a long ride tomorrow. No spoilers!

 

[Page Mill Masochist]

My guess:

1) Mole from within UCI.
2) People have forgotten about Ochowicz....
3) Carmichael
4) WAG's
5) Pharma insiders
6) Armstrong 'client list'
7) Supporting cast of soigneurs, drivers, minions.
8) USAC mole.

Guessing you are right about most of these. I always took Tygart's "30 times worse" comment as a hint at the number of his sources. Moles within UCI, USAC and pharma would be devastating.

 

[thehog]

Guessing you are right about most of these. I always took Tygart's "30 times worse" comment as a hint at the number of his sources. Moles within UCI, USAC and pharma would be devastating.

Lab directors/staff.

 

[Race Radio]

Labs doing work on the side
Positives
USAC and UCI will be exposed
EPO in a baby carriage
Wire transfers
Video (Yes, video)
Emails, lots of emails
Lance's feelings about the French
Johan the fixer
Schattenberg

It will also be interesting to see who didn't talk. Far more important to focus on those who impeded the investigation and not those who helped

 

[Tinman]

Schattenberg

Please Radio Please, we beg you, tell us about Schattenberg...

 

[Cloxxki]

Stephanie McIlvain witness tampering testing even our beliefs. More connected than ever imagined.

HemAssist proof. Confirmation of rider who got it from Lance to help test or something. Tyler didn't know where Lance's tour boost came from?

Even current employees implicating Lance on all accounts. Livingston.

Sheryl Crow as a greater star than the implicated, must have really rocked it.

Hoping: Floyd did happen to find some more funny snapshots from back in the day after all.