Rest Day 1 Round Up - la Vuelta 2011

[just some guy]

Been a great start to the Vuelta with big changes happening all the time.

J-rod 2 stages - blew as expected in the ITT but great to see the pocket rocket light up the steep stuff.

Froome riding very well and wearing Red for the rest day which maybe of benefit to his Captain.

Wiggins riding well.

Kittel welcome to the winners circle in GT stages.

Scarponi , VDB2, Anton, Sastra are all out of the running.

Dennis not sure he is being silent is he about to strike ?

Nibali looks like a good bet for the repeat imo

What are your thoughts ?

Overall:
1 183 FROOME, Christopher SKY 38h 09' 13''
2 103 FUGLSANG, Jakob LEO + 12''
3 188 WIGGINS, Bradley SKY + 20''
4 1 NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ + 31''
5 131 KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST + 34''
6 104 MONFORT, Maxime LEO + 59''
7 157 MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB + 1' 07''
8 61 COBO, Juan José GEO + 1' 47''
9 201 BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 2' 04''
10 209 ZUBELDIA, Haimar RSH + 2' 13''
11 118 BRUSEGHIN, Marzio MOV + 2' 15''
12 127 VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO + 2' 21''
13 65 MENCHOV, Denis GEO + 2' 35''
14 81 RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT + 3' 23''
15 117 PARDILLA, Sergio MOV + 3' 23''
16 206 MACHADO, Tiago RSH + 3' 28''
17 11 ROCHE, Nicolas ALM + 3' 47''
18 155 KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB + 3' 52''

 

[Gloin22]

Froome = Rider of the Race so far.

 

[roundabout]

Gaps are small and can almost be wiped on the Angliru alone.

Although there they will probably smaller than before continuing in the recent GT tradition.

Nibali holds all the cards.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Can't see past Nibali for the overall win. Scarponi to win a stage. Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, Mollema top 5. Wiggins and JVDB outside of top 5. Froome to finish higher than Wiggins.

 

[jsem94]

I wouldn't count out Scarponi or Anton just yet.

Remember Rujano in the Giro? He lost five minutes on the Montepaschi stage, but in the climbs he excelled.

I think Sastre lost his GC riding abilites 2 years ago or so, he's out - but a lot can change in the coming mountain stages. Maybe not a win for Scarponi or Anton - but a podium shouldn't be at all impossible.

 

[roundabout]

Anton is 8 minutes behind on GC.

If he is feeling better he should try to hunt for stages.

Scarponi maybe can still do something but the TT was bad and even with doing a lot on the fron on stage 9 he faded pretty badly so it'll probably be bottom top-10.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yea, Antón is still likely too close to be allowed in a break (Cunego had to drop half an hour to be allowed to go on La Pandera after his win on Aitana; he'd tried to go on the Sierra Nevada stage but was considered too close). However, if he's feeling better he could go from the base of the final climb on either Somiedo or Anglirú. It's quite likely that the breakaway will take stage 20 too, so if he's still 8+ minutes down then they'll probably not be too fussed and be content to peg it back; however I'd anticipate a better ITT rider or sprinter than him being in that group if he made it.

 

[Arnout]

I wouldn't count out Scarponi or Anton just yet.

Remember Rujano in the Giro? He lost five minutes on the Montepaschi stage, but in the climbs he excelled.

I think Sastre lost his GC riding abilites 2 years ago or so, he's out - but a lot can change in the coming mountain stages. Maybe not a win for Scarponi or Anton - but a podium shouldn't be at all impossible.

Problem is both Anton and Scarponi didn't get dropped on some stage that didn't suit them, but in the mountains themselves.

 

[WillemS]

Dennis not sure he is being silent is he about to strike ?

Dennis is always silent. He whether he just won the Giro, his yellow-wearing teammate is thrown out while on a guaranteed winning position, he falls off his bike again or the year that should have been his year is blown by his team failing to obtain ProTeam status (bad Contador at Tour, a no-so-great-as-previous Andy), he remains silent. If there isn't a reporter pulling the words out off his throat, he isn't going to say much. So I don't think his silence reveals anything.

I don't think Menchov will really be a contender anymore. He will continue to be stable, though, but his level is not as high as it should've been. He might climb a few places.

 

[Tank Engine]

Very enjoyable so far. There were a couple of moments. The Liquigas TTT that was sabotaged by Lastras was maybe the best stage finish, rivalled by Sunday's MTF, when the crosswinds played into the hands of Froome and Wiggo rather than the pure climbers. Can't complain that Dan the Man won that stage . Sky went from the ridiculous in Stage 1 to the sublime in the last 2 stages (hope they don't rebound).

The next week will be crucial with the hardest climbing to come, leading up to Angry Lou. The Shark has been very consistent (except for a small loss on the day after his crash) and is the man to beat. TGBM looks to be strong. Birdsong and Kessiakoff are hovering in the background. JRod is down but not out. Froome is the joker in the pack. How well he rides in the mountains and the interplay with Wiggo will to a large extent determine what happens in the next week. Sky must now take the reins from Katusha.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's exciting because the gaps are so small and it's so impredictable. I just miss a really good climber in this Vuelta. Isn't anyone capable of leaving Wiggins etc. behind on a long climb?

 

[l.Harm]

On the steeper ones, probably

 

[Havetts]

Conclusion is that one major mountaintop finish was neutralized by the low gradients and the other one, while very attractive to watch, could've been way more attractive if there wasn't headwind. Although Wiggins & Froome setting up a crosswind was pretty cool.

Other conclusion is Tony Martin for World TT title, finally BavarianRider may cheer for once.

 

[seaby71]

Its Nibalis to lose now. He has so much time on the other main GC contenders he can ride defensively if he needs. He can save energy where required and can always make up time on any decents. The likes of Froome and fugslang have been great although i think the second half of the tour may find these guys out.

 

[movingtarget]

Of the proven grand tour riders, Nibali is the best placed. Menchov is still lurking and without his mechanical would have been much closer. With 67 seconds covering the top seven riders it is very hard to predict. Two days ago Wiggins climbed very well on a climb that suited him. A power climb. I still expect to see him and Froome dropped on some of the upcoming stages even though they have both done really well so far.

Rodriguez, Anton and Scarponi are now too far back to win the race. They may win stages but even with time bonuses I don't think they are going well enough to consistently put time into the riders ahead of them on GC.

The unknowns for me are Kessiakoff, Fuglsang and Mollema. Can they continue riding at the front on the upcoming mountain stages ? Cobo and Zubeldia have also done well and are not far off the front on GC.

It will be interesting to see how Sky play the tactics. I see Nibali as the rider to beat but any of the top five are doing well enough to challenge. As usual the third week separates the men from the boys.

 

[Ferminal]

Great race so far, a pity we will have to pay for it with the final few stages.

Scarponi is a huge disappointment and there's nothing more to say about Anton. There is however a stack of contenders still in this, if they are willing to take the race up to Sky and Liquigas.

The top 20 has 2 Sky, 2 Leopard, 2 Movistar, 2 Rabo, 2 Katusha, 2 Geox and 3 Radioshack which seems like quite a unique situation after time gaps from hills, descents, mountains and time trials.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Of the proven grand tour riders, Nibali is the best placed. Menchov is still lurking and without his mechanical would have been much closer. With 67 seconds covering the top seven riders it is very hard to predict. Two days ago Wiggins climbed very well on a climb that suited him. A power climb. I still expect to see him and Froome dropped on some of the upcoming stages even though they have both done really well so far.

Rodriguez, Anton and Scarponi are now too far back to win the race. They may win stages but even with time bonuses I don't think they are going well enough to consistently put time into the riders ahead of them on GC.

The unknowns for me are Kessiakoff, Fuglsang and Mollema. Can they continue riding at the front on the upcoming mountain stages ? Cobo and Zubeldia have also done well and are not far off the front on GC.

It will be interesting to see how Sky play the tactics. I see Nibali as the rider to beat but any of the top five are doing well enough to challenge. As usual the third week separates the men from the boys.

Pretty good summary there. I don't think Menchov though, but I could be wrong. Sky tactics will be interesting with Froome and Wiggins both up there in the standings. Froome has caught me totally off guard. Would they send Froome or Wiggins on the attack, making other teams drag the other along? Or just have Froome and Wiggins sit back and respond to others? I dunno.

 

[luckyboy]

Can't really imagine Wiggins attacking on some of the climbs coming up. I don't know enough if Froome is an attacking kind of rider though.

They might try and grind people off their wheel tomorrow as they did on La Covatilla rather than sit back.

 

[hfer07]

separating all the excitement of the ITT stage & looking dispassionately the current stands- I cannot count Purito off yet, nor can be Menchov-both within 2-1/2 & 3-1/2 minutes, can climb back in the GC with the upcoming stages, where some names of the top ten will be shed off & someone of the top 5 can have a bad day and end up losing minutes-specially in the Angliru-where is going to decide this Vuelta.

PS: Brajkovic looks well positioned too....

 

[Eric8-A]

Rider of the race so far for me: Dan Martin. He's placed 50th in previous Grand Tours, and look what he's done now. A stage win, a third on a pretty tough stage, current holder of the KoM, and looks poised for a good placing on GC.

Marcel Kittel gets his stage win, even if there was a crash behind him, chances are he still would have gotten it.

Wiggo, truly a surprise. Good to see him live up to expectations.

Igor Anton. What's the matter with the guy?

 

[daveinzambia]

Can't really imagine Wiggins attacking on some of the climbs coming up. I don't know enough if Froome is an attacking kind of rider though.

They might try and grind people off their wheel tomorrow as they did on La Covatilla rather than sit back.

in the races we have seen so far this year Froome has been very attacking. those attacks have had mixed results. We have also seen Froome blow himself up completely and not recover for several days.

i think riding for Brad has helped him in some ways. Holding that steady pace up the climbs and not unnecessarily turning himself inside out with attacks may have helped him be more consistent

one thing that really worries me about Brad this race is descending. has been mentioned elsewhere (even in an interview with Brad himself somewhere) that he seems really nervous since his crash in the tour and his team have had to work at positioning him on a couple of climbs. Have seen him right at the back of the peloton on several descents. Hopefully on bigger mountain stages with smaller groups riding he will be better but can see on stages with a few big descents he could either get himself dropped or end up wasting effort trying to get back into position.

 

[the asian]

Nibali is definitely the big favourite now. Can't count out Purito yet. Wonder whether his customary bad day in the mountains is over, with his time loss in stage 8. Anton & Scarponi are big dissapointments so far.

 

[auscyclefan94]

It's between a handful of people now.

Wiggins, Nibali, Mollema and JvdB

I am counting out rodriguez. I think it is likely he will have another bad day on the climbs. Froome is a little too young and I think will have a really bad day.

Nibali
Wiggins
Mollema
JvdB
Kessiakoff

That's my top 5

 

[Euskaltel!]

Looking at the GC it's obvious that Nibali is the main man so far, but a lot can change and surely Anglirú is going to mix things up a lot (I'm aware that Nibali has actually done OK on the steep stuff i.e. Zonoclan)! VDB would be OK if it were not for his serious injuries at the Tour - I just think that counts him out against Nibali. Wiggins? He'll lose time on Anglirú, but can he repeat his Covatilla wonders? And then the team dynamics with Froome - just great! I think I'll plump for Mollema and see if TGBM can serve it up on the mountains, he was ahead of everyone on GC who still matters at Covatilla.

Would love to see Dan Martin attack like crazy on every single MTF! Maybe he should not attack first though...

 

[RedheadDane]

Probably slightly unrelated but:

Prize for best ability to hang onto the red jersey goes to Sylvain Chavanel.

And that opens the question: Will the jersey change holder as frequently in days to come?