In my opinion Carapaz is overrated as a climber, he doesn´t have the stamina to go solo climbing for more than 2 or 3 kms, that is the reason why he attacked so late in Covatilla, Angliru and in others ocassion, because he knows his body well, and the fact thar he will be in danger of blowing up like in Romme-Colmbiere if he tries earlier. He has a great kick (specially in moments when the pace is not very high) and a good firsts 2-3 kms after that kick, but can´t sustain it with tempo for a whole climb.
So I believe that with his move he was expecting the others to stop and play cat and mouse like in 2019 but with Peio there this was not the case.
If he wins this it will be due to his consistency not climbing superiority, but in Fact i think he is going to struggle this week against Hindley (maybe also Landa but not so sure about it).