Rogers aims for TDF overall

[53 x 11]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rogers-aims-for-tour-de-france-overall

Can anyone tell me why this guy is constantly built up to be a grand tour contender? He did OK back in his Quickstep days but I am yet to see anything that would indicate the ability to podium in grand tours.

A lot is made of the fact that he crashed out of the tour in the virtual race lead, why is this any significance at all when he was simply in an early break and was allowed into it because he wasnt a real GC threat?

I'm not saying the guy is another alsoran but I'm struggling to understand why this guy is constantly discussed as a contender, perhaps it is just an Anglo media thing.

 

[McLovin]

maybe because he can? i'm not a romantic/naive person but i really think he's clean, because of an interview he did back in 2006...i can't remember it all, but it was endend something like' when the night come i choose to say 'no' ". he finished a top ten in tour ( being beaten by what riders?) and a top ten in the giro, after riders like di luca, menchov and i don't wan't to say more cause i don't want to move your topic to the clinic.
mike, all the good luck!

 

[Mellow Velo]

MR Clean?
This thread is bound to end up in the clinic, but not the one in Frieburg.
Top 5 would be quite an achievement and then some.

 

[Anonymous]

i don't think he is going to be a 'contender'

but rather, his best role in a grand tour is to ride for GC. He has top 10 in two GTs so far, but spent the most of his career as a domestique to others.

he is a respectable climber, and if he could pull out some TTs like in his WC days, then a top 5 is possible, but a long shot.

however, with the class and talent moving up, i think he will need all the luck he can to break a top 10 at the 2010 TDF.

he will have to work for CAv at some stage in the race, and will be wasting energy to do that, just like Kirchen at the 2008 tour. he was great for 2 weeks, then it all caught up with him.

there's no point targeting GC and green. Rogers, head over to BMC and work on GC with Cadel!

 

[kurtinsc]

Well...

8th in Giro 2009
10th in TDF 2006

And for shorter stage races:

2nd in Catalunya 2007
2nd in Tour de Suisse 2005
1st in Deutchland Tour 2003

Now those aren't superb results, but they're decent results for a guy less then 30 who's been injury plagued.


I don't think he's a favorite by any stretch... but I'd say he's definitely a threat in the GC and likely top 10 finisher when healthy. Let's not forget that the best place Cadel Evans managed in a GT prior to the year he turned 30 was a 5th in the Tour in 2006.

He's probably more of a 7th to 8th finish... but a guy who's a decent top 10 guy has to be considered a contender of some sort.

 

[Cogombre]

He's a Top 10 contender, but I can't see him going for more than that. It seems that the whole peloton is aiming for the 2010's Tour GC, so Michael will have to fight with Contador, Schlecks, Evans, Sastre, Wiggins, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Gesink/Menchov, Nibali/Kreuziger/whoever from Liquigas, Van den Broeck, etc. A Top 10 would be a great result for him, and even more taking into account that he'll ride in a team focused on Cav.

And what will Martin do? I thought that he was supposed to be the GC man of Columbia for the next years.

 

[issoisso]

i really think he's clean, because of an interview he did back in 2006...i can't remember it all, but it was endend something like' when the night come i choose to say 'no' ". !

Kohl and Dekker both had much stronger words than those in favour of riding clean. So by your logic, they're also clean. oh wait

 

[Runitout]

maybe because he can? i'm not a romantic/naive person but i really think he's clean, because of an interview he did back in 2006...i can't remember it all, but it was endend something like' when the night come i choose to say 'no' ". he finished a top ten in tour ( being beaten by what riders?) and a top ten in the giro, after riders like di luca, menchov and i don't wan't to say more cause i don't want to move your topic to the clinic.
mike, all the good luck!

I would love to believe you. I doubt Rogers felt hard done by. He was beaten by faster riders.

What is staggering with Rogers is the decline of his ITT. When he almost won TdSuisse (2005), he was 18 seconds off Ullrich over 36km. When he won the Deustschland Tour in 2003, he put over a minute into Ullrich over 40km and over two minutes into Cancellara.

Now he gets hammered in the ITT and his climbing has suffered as well.

 

[Ferminal]

If he stays off the bitumen he is definitely a chance of 4-10.

If you take the Lance Armstrong prediction in that "he will be better for a year back on the road" then he could possibly improve on the 8th (7th) at the Giro.

 

[Highlander]

I would love to believe you. I doubt Rogers felt hard done by. He was beaten by faster riders.

What is staggering with Rogers is the decline of his ITT. When he almost won TdSuisse (2005), he was 18 seconds off Ullrich over 36km. When he won the Deustschland Tour in 2003, he put over a minute into Ullrich over 40km and over two minutes into Cancellara.

Now he gets hammered in the ITT and his climbing has suffered as well.

I agree that the drop in Rogers' TT ability has really been quite profound. For a multiple world champion in the discipline, he really has become quite mediocre in recent years. Besides discussing any topics that belong in the clinic, I know that he has claimed to have focused more on climbing to become an all-arounder, but he hasn't produced too many results in that regard either.

I think at best he may break the top 10, but I think even that may be pushing it. With riders like Contador, the Schlecks, etc. ahead of him, I can't really see him hanging at all when the road turns uphill and even if he did miraculously get his TT skills back, this year's race simply lacks enough distance to make up too much time.

 

[Kingsley A]

I was a little surprised when I read that CN article too.

My guess had been that Columbia/HTC tactics would be to go all out to put Cav in green (especially after proving they can do it with Greipel in the Vuelta) and use Rogers and maybe one or two others to support Tony Martin in the quest for QC. W/o trying to do down Rogers, that also seems to be the way the team is set up - GC is secondary to stage and points victories. Rogers may still have a shot but is less likely than Martin in the coming years.

If Columbia are looking to win a GT in the near future I think they are better off supporting a Martin and ordering Rogers to work for him than vice versa. They will lose one or the other sooner or later anyway and they are a team that seems to, at least partially, focus on the potential of youth.

I agree with Cogombre that Mick is unlikely to ever get beyond top ten but Tony just might. He is a better bet anyway.

Of course, comments from sportsmen always have to have taken with pinches of salt but bravado is a big part of the psychological game. I still don't think that HTC will worry that much about the GC at next years TdF and will mainly be focused on winning Green.

 

[Anonymous]

I don't think he's a favorite by any stretch... but I'd say he's definitely a threat in the GC and likely top 10 finisher when healthy. Let's not forget that the best place Cadel Evans managed in a GT prior to the year he turned 30 was a 5th in the Tour in 2006.
He's probably more of a 7th to 8th finish... but a guy who's a decent top 10 guy has to be considered a contender of some sort.

Well, Cadel only raced ONE GT (Giro, wore pink, then massive hunger bonk) before that, and he started road racing a bit later than most becoz he was a MTBiker.

Cadel broke his collarbone 4 times between 2003 and 2004, and he was expected to be picked as a helper for big Jan in the 2004 Tour, but he got cut from the squad. he didn't agree with the "management practices" at that team.

About the "contender of some sort", i guess what I meant in my post is that unless he can dominate TTs, he will never contend for an overall win. However, if I was a team manager, i think my sponsors would prefer Rogers to be in the top ten of a GT, than out of the top 100.

I don't think someone in the top ten (since the gap between 1 and 10 is often over 20minutes) is considered a contender for the win, but i see no reason why rogers shouldn't focus on doing his best on GC. If he finishes his career with 4-5 top tens in GTs, that's a pretty good career in my eyes.

 

[karlboss]

At best, top 5 tour, podium giro/vuelta. Can't see it happening with Martin in the team who shows more promise, and he has been working even in the giro for cav.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I would love to believe you. I doubt Rogers felt hard done by. He was beaten by faster riders.

What is staggering with Rogers is the decline of his ITT. When he almost won TdSuisse (2005), he was 18 seconds off Ullrich over 36km. When he won the Deustschland Tour in 2003, he put over a minute into Ullrich over 40km and over two minutes into Cancellara.

Now he gets hammered in the ITT and his climbing has suffered as well.

i think rogers would be a good domestique for a gc guy but not a leader. how will he aim for gc when there is cav in the way who needs a big lead out train. rogers got 8th on gc at the giro basically because of the ttt. once it got to the moutains and even the tt, rogers was going backwards. he was not the 8th best guy on gc but had good team for a ttt.

rogers should target the giro or even better the vuelta, him and kirchen could ride the vuelta with full support behind him (no sprinters in the way) and actually contend for the podium. contention in the giro or tour is a bit out of rogers depth.

 

[brianf7]

I wish him well he can do it with a bit of luck and he has the team he almost made it before that crash and who knows what would have happened if the mechanics had glued his tyres on properly.
But he has to set the goal of winning not lead out in sprints he can climb sprint and time trial.

He suffered with Cronnic fategue so he cant do all the races and set a goal of winning the tour. the team nedd to look after him. You wont see Armstrong in early season races.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I'd like to see him make a run, but that comes more from a desire to see a strongly contested race than any interest in seeing Rogers win. This year it was AC, AS, and LA. Everybody knew it would come down to those three; it would make for a far more exciting race to see those three, plus Cadel, Wiggo, and Rogers all going for it. Ultimately, Rogers will lose significant time unless he somehow finds his old TT form, so I don't see it happening.

The TdF isn't his GT. With Cav going stage hunting, Rogers will be obligated to help him. The Vuelta, on the other hand, might be well suited for him, unless Cav decides he wants more GT stages to his cred.

 

[red_flanders]

I think his world championships, while great for his palmares, are not as indicative of his TT prowess as might seem at first glance. The field was not great in the years he won, with many top TT'ers not there or on failing form, and I'd suggest that the real world championship in the TT was/often is in the Tour.

That said, yes, I do think his TT form has dropped off a bit as well. I don't see him as any better than a top 10. You can question whether that's a worthwhile goal, buy my question is --what else should he focus on?

 

[powderpuff]

Well, Cadel only raced ONE GT (Giro, wore pink, then massive hunger bonk) before that, and he started road racing a bit later than most becoz he was a MTBiker.

Cadel broke his collarbone 4 times between 2003 and 2004, and he was expected to be picked as a helper for big Jan in the 2004 Tour, but he got cut from the squad. he didn't agree with the "management practices" at that team.

Cadel rode the Vuelta in 2004 for TMO, he ended up in 60th place about 1hr 48 down, even Zabel beat him. Cadel and half the team ate some dodgy fish salad very early on in the race; 3 or 4 team members pulled out, he stayed in and finished the race.

 

[53 x 11]

I think his world championships, while great for his palmares, are not as indicative of his TT prowess as might seem at first glance. The field was not great in the years he won, with many top TT'ers not there or on failing form, and I'd suggest that the real world championship in the TT was/often is in the Tour.

That said, yes, I do think his TT form has dropped off a bit as well. I don't see him as any better than a top 10. You can question whether that's a worthwhile goal, buy my question is --what else should he focus on?

I agree with your point about the WC he won. Perhaps it is time for the media to start discussing him for what he is, a good short tour rider and mountain domestique. Personaly the best I ever saw him ride was when he was helping Dickie get over the climbs.

 

[53 x 11]

he almost made it before that crash and who knows what would have happened if the mechanics had glued his tyres on properly.

for some reason this line about "what would have happened if it wasnt for that crash" gets brought up a lot. I'll tell you what would have happened; he would have been caught and dropped by Rasmussen just like all the othes and finnished way down the order.

 

[Polish]

UNIBET Odds:

Current UNIBET.COM odds have him unlisted at this time...fyi...

Tour 2010: General Classification
Who will win?
No refunds on non-starters. Others on request.

Contador Velasco, A 1.65
Armstrong, L 6.00
Schleck, Andy 6.00

Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 20.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00

Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
Van den Broeck, J 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00
Cancellara, F 150.0
Casar, S 200.0
Moncoutié, D 200.0
Le Mevel, C 300.0

 

[Anonymous]

Well, Cadel only raced ONE GT (Giro, wore pink, then massive hunger bonk) before that, and he started road racing a bit later than most becoz he was a MTBiker.

Cadel rode the Vuelta in 2004 for TMO, he ended up in 60th place about 1hr 48 down, even Zabel beat him. Cadel and half the team ate some dodgy fish salad very early on in the race; 3 or 4 team members pulled out, he stayed in and finished the race.

I stand corrected. Why isn't that on his wikipedia? And why no mention in the book? haha

For some reason I thought the food poisoning was before the Vuelta started and he pulled out before the first day... my mistake, thanks for the clarification!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Current UNIBET.COM odds have him unlisted at this time...fyi...

Tour 2010: General Classification
Who will win?
No refunds on non-starters. Others on request.

Contador Velasco, A 1.65
Armstrong, L 6.00
Schleck, Andy 6.00

Evans, C 20.00
Wiggins, B 20.00
Basso, I 25.00
Gesink, R 25.00
Valverde, A 25.00
Menchov, D 30.00
Rasmussen, M 30.00

Sanchez, S 35.00
Nibali, V 35.00
Leipheimer, L 40.00
Sastre, C 45.00
Klöden, A 50.00
Kreuziger, R 50.00
Schleck, Frank 50.00
Van den Broeck, J 50.00
VandeVelde, C 50.00
Vinokourov, A 50.00
Pellizotti, F 60.00
Martin, Tony 65.00
Cancellara, F 150.0
Casar, S 200.0
Moncoutié, D 200.0
Le Mevel, C 300.0

I don't think LA should be at $6.00. maybe $10. Evans, wiggins and valverde should be a bit more shorter price in my opinion.

 

[auscyclefan94]

for some reason this line about "what would have happened if it wasnt for that crash" gets brought up a lot. I'll tell you what would have happened; he would have been caught and dropped by Rasmussen just like all the othes and finnished way down the order.

he would of been yellow though. even if rasmussen dropped him. he would of not lost too much time as he was better than Colom who was last to be dropped.

 

[Frosty]

Cadel rode the Vuelta in 2004 for TMO, he ended up in 60th place about 1hr 48 down, even Zabel beat him. Cadel and half the team ate some dodgy fish salad very early on in the race; 3 or 4 team members pulled out, he stayed in and finished the race.

Thats strange as Cadel didnt seem to be affected on that stage. Looking at the stage where the guys pulled out

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/vuelta04/?id=results/vuelta045

Cadel finishes 6th so he obviously wasnt affected significantly on that day. I have wondered before why he did so poorly after that. Was he trying to work for Zabel, who with the points jersey, probably stood a better chance of winning something for the team than Evans did?