Meh, I didn't think Nibali was capable of winning a GT either, and TBH and don't really rate him that much higher than Kreuziger. I think a little less race days will do Kreuziger much good. We'll see how he goes at the Giro... he probably couldn't have picked a worse GT than this year's Giro to go for the win, but the crazy steep ascents aren't in Nibali's favour either, so we'll see.Moondance said:If he focuses completely on the Vuelta I think he could very well Top-5 or even podium, but to win... I don't think so (regardless of whether or not Contador will ride the Vuelta as is being speculated). He's still not enough of a climber to stick with the top men in that regard, and none of the GTs this year look particilarly friendly for the time trialists of the peloton.
He certainly wont win a GT this year if he throws everything at le Tour in July and then tries to tack on the Vuelta as desert as he has done the past few year. Almost noone in the peloton is strong enough to do that, and Kreuziger doesn't yet belong to the select group of those who could.
Yeah, exactly. Kreuziger has shown in the last 2 TdFs that he isn't lacking 'what it takes' to compete consistently for 3 weeks (as opposed to the 1-week stage races where he has definitely shone) by getting top 10s. That is very good, he just didn't have the edge to keep with the best climbers on the hardest climbs. Granted this year's Giro is OMG hard, but he's no slouch in the climbing department, he's just not a memorable attacker like Ricco, Contador, Schleck. And he's only 24 so he's still developing.ingsve said:Everyone now lists Nibali as a top GT contender but remember that before last year Nibali and Kreuziger were very equal in ability and it was only in the last year that Nibali took a step forward. There is nothing that says that Kreuziger can't make the same type of improvement this year or the years to come.
He didn't exactly do badly last year, you know.theyoungest said:Meh, I didn't think Nibali was capable of winning a GT either, and TBH and don't really rate him that much higher than Kreuziger. I think a little less race days will do Kreuziger much good. We'll see how he goes at the Giro... he probably couldn't have picked a worse GT than this year's Giro to go for the win, but the crazy steep ascents aren't in Nibali's favour either, so we'll see.
He did and he didnt. lost 3 minutes on Zoncolan but stayed with Basso and Scarponi on Mortirolo.Moondance said:He didn't exactly do badly last year, you know.
Kreuziger showed an unbelievable level almost immediately after turning pro, but In the last 2 years He hasn't developed as much as I had expected.mombus said:What do ya'll think about his chances this take GT this year? Is he going to be riding the Tour? I really believe he can win the Vuelta.
Unfortunately Samu is going to have to make do with that olympic gold. Hes 33 years old and is basing his second consecutive season on a Tour podium. He wasted the rest of his form on the Vuelta a Burgos. Even with the tour fatigue, he could have won that Vuelta last year. But he didnt enter it and it doesnt look like hes going to this year either.jaylew said:I don't see him winning a GT anytime soon. I just don't think he climbs well enough at this point. Among non-GT winners, I give Schleck, Sanchez, and Evans the best shot, with Ricco, Gesink, JoRod and maybe Anton and JVB2 in the next group. One of the problems Kreuz has is that the Tour probably has the best parcours for him but also the best competition.
Of course he could always have a leap in performance and make a podium somewhere but I don't see it happening this year.
I think sometimes we forget Nibali wasn't planning on the Giro and was only added when Pelli got suspended. Maybe that has something to do with it.The Hitch said:He did and he didnt. lost 3 minutes on Zoncolan but stayed with Basso and Scarponi on Mortirolo.
Cracked in Andor, Pena Cabarga and Alto de Cottobello but put beat everyone on the steepest sections of Bola, to everyones surprise finishing not a second behind Mosquera, wooping Purito even.
Very very strange.
I've heard people hear say that, but I'm not convinced yet.theyoungest said:but the crazy steep ascents aren't in Nibali's favour either, so we'll see.
He did very average on the steepest MTF of them all. Losing 3 minutes on Zoncolan, that's not top contender stuff. He's alright on the steep climbs, don't get me wrong, but so is Kreuziger. Just not spectacular.Moondance said:He didn't exactly do badly last year, you know.
+1ergmonkey said:I think Kreuziger needs one solid year of learning, adjusting, and getting stronger while acting in the position of team leader in a GT.
A great season, in my opinion, would be a stage win or two along the way to a GT top-5--and preferably a Giro podium.
From there, he and his supporting cast could build with confidence towards a potential GT win the following year. After so much time riding with both the reduced pressure and the constrained opportunities of being third or fourth or fifth man at Liquigas, Kreuziger might need a transition year.
Long term, I'd much rather see him winning GTs than baby Schleck.
I think the improvement in Nibali's performance from early in the Vuelta to later can be attributed to his ability to adapt. Early in the Vuelta when the attacks were coming hard and fast he was trying to respond in kind and consequently blowing up. He got smart and began responding at a more measrued tempo instead of trying to match and maintain the tempo of attackers like Anton, Rodriguez and Mosquera. Like Evans and Basso he's a diesel.The Hitch said:He did and he didnt. lost 3 minutes on Zoncolan but stayed with Basso and Scarponi on Mortirolo.
Cracked in Andor, Pena Cabarga and Alto de Cottobello but put beat everyone on the steepest sections of Bola, to everyones surprise finishing not a second behind Mosquera, wooping Purito even.
Very very strange.
I was surprised also to see Nibali so much better than Roman. I was convinced Kreuziger was, with the extra year in his favour as well, the better gt bet. Wins in TDS at 22 and Romandie 23, + 9th in the Tour at 23. Then again, i may have been decieved by the positions at 09 Tour. Nibali was 7th and Roman 9th but Nibali was 7 minutes ahead actually. This a Tour with not many chances to get big time.
His superdomestiquing at Vuelta was good, even if it made much of the race boring.
Agreed on the preference of Kreuziger winning a GT over Schlecklet.ergmonkey said:I think Kreuziger needs one solid year of learning, adjusting, and getting stronger while acting in the position of team leader in a GT.
A great season, in my opinion, would be a stage win or two along the way to a GT top-5--and preferably a Giro podium.
From there, he and his supporting cast could build with confidence towards a potential GT win the following year. After so much time riding with both the reduced pressure and the constrained opportunities of being third or fourth or fifth man at Liquigas, Kreuziger might need a transition year.
Long term, I'd much rather see him winning GTs than baby Schleck.
But riders like Evans, Sastre and Menchov only started performing really well in GC's from their middle 20's on, and improved untill their late 20's, early 30's. Although there are exceptions, guys like Kreuziger who show incredible results at a very young age (already a great Tour at age 22) tend to peak pretty quickly. I would be suprised if he can keep improving like the more 'moderate growth' guys.La Pandera said:Agreed on the preference of Kreuziger winning a GT over Schlecklet.
We have to remember that grand tour success early in a rider's career isn't the norm and lack of grand tour success relatively early isn't a reason to write someone off. Evans, Sastre, Menchov and others in this generation didn't reach their highest placement in the grand tours until their late 20's and early 30's. Kreuziger still has time to gain experience, endurance and strength to put in a position to contend for the overall.
Evan's wore the pink jersey at the Giro and lost it in rather spectacular fashion relatively early in his road career, having started out as a mountain biker (and I believe world champ). Menchov was a winner of the white jersey at the Tour while riding for Banesto. Sastre was generally riding in the service of others (Hamilton and Basso) until sharing leadership with the Schlecks. I wouldn't give up on Kreuziger just yet.Lanark said:But riders like Evans, Sastre and Menchov only started performing really well in GC's from their middle 20's on, and improved untill their late 20's, early 30's. Although there are exceptions, guys like Kreuziger who show incredible results at a very young age (already a great Tour at age 22) tend to peak pretty quickly. I would be suprised if he can keep improving like the more 'moderate growth' guys.
Kreuziger has 2 tdf top 10's and came 11 the third time. That was at age 22. To compare his gt ability to that of Rogers or Gerdermann is just silly. And he is significantly younger than any of the guys you mention.bicing said:I put Kreuziger in the same category as Lokvist, Gerdemann, Rogers and Wiggins. They try all year for a GT and get nowhere. Well, Wiggins got 4th one freak year and Rogers was going alright once til he crashed but you get the general idea.