Stage 16: Ponte Di Legno-Val Martello/Martelltal (139 km)

Aug 16, 2011
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Once again, thanks to Eshnar. : )









Technical overview:
Yep, let's try again and pray for warm weather. I'll quote myself from the 2013 stage analysis:

Eshnar said:
Technical overview:
Silly stage at high altitude, awfully short, with 3 HCs. The peloton will start immediatly the awesome and never used combo from the Gavia(16.5 kms at 8%) to the Stelvio (easy side again, 21.7 kms at 7.2%), featuring two most difficult descents which could be more decisive than the climbs. What ruins everything is the 20 kms of flat in the valley before the never used climb of Val Martello, which despite being an HC on its own pales in comparison to its neighbours.
What to expect:
Everything can happen here, including nothing at all. The most likely outcome is GC guys staring at each other until the last 7 km of Val Martello.

General Classification after Stage 15
1 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) 63:26:39
2 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 1:03
3 MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF-SAXO) + 1:50
4 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 2:24
5 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) + 2:40
6 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 2:42
7 KELDERMAN, Wilco (BELKIN) + 3:04
8 ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 4:47
9 KISERLOVSKI, Robert (TREK FACTORY RACING) + 5:44
10 POELS, Wout (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) + 6:32
 
stage looks awesome, but maybe too hard. i think the group of contenders will catch the break in the first third of the last climb, then stay together with attacks starting with 10ks to go.
Maijka to try to crack Evans, everyone to distance Uran at some stage, with Uran going at his own pace and limiting losses to less that 1 minute.
 
observer said:
stage looks awesome, but maybe too hard. i think the group of contenders will catch the break in the first third of the last climb, then stay together with attacks starting with 10ks to go.
Maijka to try to crack Evans, everyone to distance Uran at some stage, with Uran going at his own pace and limiting losses to less that 1 minute.
Astana will throw caution to the wind and send two guys in the break. Aru will attack on the Stelvio and use the two Astanas as springboards to a stunning 3 minute victory.
 
Are they going to keep Arredondo on a leash again?

Otherwise he will go on the breakaway.

Duarte will go as well. Duarte will take the stage.

Have no idea what will happen with the GC contenders. They'll send reinforcements in the breakaway.
 
It's not completely out of question to see something happening on the Stelvio, even tho nowadays it's quite far-fetched.
But I bet there will be at least one GC candidate who's gonna end his bid for the maglia rosa on those terrible slopes.
 
Pippo_San said:
It's not completely out of question to see something happening on the Stelvio, even tho nowadays it's quite far-fetched.
But I bet there will be at least one GC candidate who's gonna end his bid for the maglia rosa on those terrible slopes.
If anything is suited to Quintana then it must be this stage with the exception of the 20km flat after the Stelvio.

Edit: forecast is really bad though :(
 
Dec 27, 2013
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QUOTE: What to expect:
Everything can happen here, including nothing at all. The most likely outcome is GC guys staring at each other until the last 7 km of Val Martello.QUOTE

It´s after a rest day, I would say anything can happen and probably will.
The GC wont play their cards until Val Martello but if you have a bad day a lot can happen even before that, along with the weather, if it´s freezing again this could turn out to be an even more terrible day than it already is.
I put my money on Quintana to take the pink "already" today.
 
Dec 27, 2013
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Kwibus said:
If anything is suited to Quintana then it must be this stage with the exception of the 20km flat after the Stelvio.

Edit: forecast is really bad though :(
Obviously depends where you look and who you ask, DMI the danish weather institute predicts dry weather and 5 degrees on Stelvio, other says it will snow.

We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope they can race, course no way in hell any Italian race coordinator or race director would have prepared for any kind of alternative, regardless what happen last year, no way that will ever happen.
 
Butterhead said:
Obviously depends where you look and who you ask, DMI the danish weather institute predicts dry weather and 5 degrees on Stelvio, other says it will snow.

We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope they can race, course no way in hell any Italian race coordinator or race director would have prepared for any kind of alternative, regardless what happen last year, no way that will ever happen.
Yea, as of last night the organisers still say say the stage will go on as planned.
 
Dec 27, 2013
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Zam_Olyas said:
Yea, as of last night the organisers still say say the stage will go on as planned.
Let´s hope so, course if they don´t we have nothing to do all afternoon :D
 
I really wish the likes of Pellizotti, Scarponi (Aru can handle the stage with the rest of the team), Basso, Geniez, Monfort, Roche, Duate, Cunego, Ulissi, Arredondo, Sanchez etc would go all in on Gavia and create chaos.

But I think the peloton will group ride Gavia with Bouhanni setting the pace at the front, lol.

Luckily the organizer has placed a soft-ish stage (good flat stage design) next day, so we might see a GC contender doing something on Stelvio.

Solid design of a stage here, but the riders must now deliver.


Rolland FTW.
 
Dazed and Confused said:
I really wish the likes of Pellizotti, Scarponi (Aru can handle the stage with the rest of the team), Basso, Geniez, Monfort, Roche, Duate, Cunego, Ulissi, Arredondo, Sanchez etc would go all in on Gavia and create chaos.

But I think the peloton will group ride Gavia with Bouhanni setting the pace at the front, lol.

Luckily the organizer has placed a soft-ish stage (good flat stage design) next day, so we might see a GC contender doing something on Stelvio.

Solid design of a stage here, but the riders must now deliver.


Rolland FTW.
Immediately after yesterdays stage i have a feeling that delfino would win a stage.
 
The GC contenders probably won't attack on the Stelvio because of the 46K valley that comes afterwards. However if Aru or Quintana wants to win this Giro they shouldn't wait for the final 5K. They should attack in the beginning of the final climb and try to take at least a minute.

Important stage for the mountain jersey. Will Arredondo and/or Wellens be in the breakaway? Duarte should also join the breakaway for the stage win. Rolland will just defend his eighth place and stay in the GC group. I'm afraid Thomas De Gendt will have to work for Uran. That comes from joining a big team...
 

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