Stage 4 - TeamTimeTrial - Who will win? Why?

[auscyclefan94]

I think the stage 4 team time trial shall be decisive for the tdf gc once the race gets to paris. Astana looks very strong but have they done much practise in the discipline yet? Columbia always features in this event and should be the favourite to win but will the sprinters be a dead weight for their chances. Can Garmin give a big buffer for Vandevelde and win the ttt?How will teams like Rabobank, Silence Lotto and Cervelo limit their loses to not lose too much time to the other big gc favourites. Which teams will surprise us and which teams will crumble. Please share your thoughts on this thread.

P.S Please no doping comments on this thread as it is really boring and not interesting to read!!!

 

[BigBoat]

This is where Astana will really crank it up...I think.

 

[stefrees]

The problem Astana may have is the split in camp this could be pivotal. Columbia with rogers kirchen martin monfort hincapie will take some beating. Garmin will be a factor but I don't think euskatel can win

 

[39*23t]

top three will probably be 1)astana, 2)garmin and 3)highroad.
Astana has got at least three strong tt riders in Armstrong, Kloeden, and Liephiemer with contador also showing a vast improvment in the discpline and popo going strong again this will be the team to beat.

Garmin have a squad built for this with Millar, Wiggins, Zubriskie, and vandevelde and will probably have trained specifically for this the only reason i put them second is because they just don't seem to win these things.

Highroad have a good squad but the course might be a little too long for them to match up with the others.

Saxo also have a good squad but with Chris Sorenson + Schlecks might slow down their engine room alittle.

 

[nathan_peace]

I cant see anybody but Astana winning, with rides like Contador, Armstrong, Leipheimer and Kloeden, they are probably the best TT team on paper. Contador and Armstrong could have a lead of 2-3 minutes on a rider like Sastre before the first mountain stage based on the ITT and TTT.

 

[39*23t]

The problem Astana may have is the split in camp this could be pivotal. Columbia with rogers kirchen martin monfort hincapie will take some beating. Garmin will be a factor but I don't think euskatel can win

True but a good TTT is important to both Armstrong and AC. Might be the only time in the tour they work together, unless one of em punctures.

 

[dominicsavio]

Team columbia highroad will win! Why? because theyre the best! Most experienced as a group too!

 

[dominicsavio]

The essence is how one works as a group and not as an individual! Go Columbia Go Cav!!!!!!

 

[Amsterhammer]

I think Astana will just pip Columbia.

Why? Because they will go faster.

 

[skippy254]

I'm leaning towards Columbia in the TEAM time trial (with the emphasis on TEAM). These guys and Garmin are actually a team and have spent the time training for this event. Astana is again the big ? as they are super talented but are very fractured and as a team (emphasis lacking) when have they practiced for this event?

 

[BigBoat]

The problem Astana may have is the split in camp this could be pivotal.

Not in the TTT though...Kolden is very strong for the TT, so is Levi and Lance and the rest of the whole damn squad...Damnit I hate Lance and he's gonna win.

 

[Frosty]

Looking at the form from the Giro i think you would make Columbia favourites. (i do realise that teams have changed their line up so it isnt a completely fair comparison but i think their strength should be reasonably similar at the top end). However, one factor here could be that Columbia are likely to have to work for Cav on stages 2 and 3 - their team may well be a bit tired whereas Astana should still be relatively fresh.

Garmin will want to give Farrar a chance in the sprints but if someone has a chance of taking the yellow jersey then their efforts on stages 2 and 3 may only be to get Farrar into a good position and not do much work on the front unless other teams are unwilling to do the work. After all, if Columbia and Cav are firing on all cylinders then it might not matter what everyone else does. So Garmin could be quite fresh and will have worked hard on their team time trial. Astana on the other hand are likely to have put a bit less effort in as they will have been focussing on the climbing stages more.

So i think it may well be very close between these three. On the basis that it is their big chance to win a stage and maybe put someone in yellow, i think i will go for Garmin.

As an aside, what makes a good TTTer? Is it just the same as being a good TTer? I would have thought that in a TTT a rider may be doing, say 10 seconds on the front and then 80 seconds in people's slipstreams as the other 8 take their turns. So is it almost like a hard ride with sprints every so often? Would this then favour a different type of rider than the specialist TTer?

 

[Jasper]

Apparentely, size also matters. A big powerful guy can put the guys behind him out of the wind, and create a better slipstream than a small and skinny rider would. But I don't know for how much of the total picture this effect accounts.

 

[eric_vv]

That's why Sprinters usually make good TTT riders. A combination of a sprinter and a TT specialist is ideal for a TTT. The sprinter gets the tempo up, the TT specialist takes over and keeps the pace steady for a while. It's not about having the best TT specialist you have to have riders who can cope with a high tempo, faster than what you would do in a TT. It requires a different mentallity and some of the best TTT riders aren't good in TT's because they can't do it alone, but can in a group.

 

[benpounder]

Not in the TTT though...Kolden is very strong for the TT, so is Levi and Lance and the rest of the whole damn squad...Damnit I hate Lance and he's gonna win.

Using your honesty as a foil...

It constantly enrages me how the media, in need of jawdropping headlines, foists a narrative that may, in fact, be entirely incorrect. I have yet to see any tangible evidence that team Astana has fractured allegiances. But it sure sells papers and pageviews. And so many people buy into the spin.

Given Astana’s performance in the Giro (all the poo pooing aside, they still won the team title by wide margin – 24+ minutes), they will be exceptionally motivated, and well powered. Big bodied Rast to block the wind, powerhouses Leipheimer, Kloden, Armstrong and Contador (Spanish TT champ) to drive the train, and super domestique’s Popovych, Zubeldia, and Paulinho to fill the infrequent gaps. This isn’t the short, flat Lido TTT of Italy, where wind (and micro-dosing) affected the final outcome.

HighRoad, Garmin, and Liquigas will all be strong, but each will have different motivations for the race. Irrespective of who HighRoad sends, they are in the Tour for stage wins – and why not – Cav is the rainmaker, and they have shown the ability to win a majority of the non-sprint, non-mountaintop finishes as well. JV will again be targeting the TTT, and so early in the race, Garmin ought to have the horsepower. And Liquigas is sending just a flat-out dynamite team; they could, as well as Astana, place several riders on the final podium.

CSC should do well overall, but unlike last year, they do not have ace-in-the-hole Sastre to take advantage of the disarray caused by brothers Frank and Andy toying with the pelaton. Thus they wont have the motivation as the other four teams for the TTT. And I certainly do not expect any Phoenix of Banesto to arise from the Spanish teams to challenge.

Astana followed closely by Garmin and Liquigas, a good gap to Columbia and SaxoBank. Rabobank then follows and Gesink proves he is stronger than Menchov. And Sastre is forced to stalk stage wins.

Contador wins the overall, with Armstrong and Leipheimer riding in support.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Using your honesty as a foil...

...Contador wins the overall, with Armstrong and Leipheimer riding in support.

A lucid, realistic and entirely feasible assessment, thanks!

(Though I don't think CSC is taking part!)

 

[DenisMenchov]

That's why Sprinters usually make good TTT riders. A combination of a sprinter and a TT specialist is ideal for a TTT. The sprinter gets the tempo up, the TT specialist takes over and keeps the pace steady for a while. It's not about having the best TT specialist you have to have riders who can cope with a high tempo, faster than what you would do in a TT. It requires a different mentallity and some of the best TTT riders aren't good in TT's because they can't do it alone, but can in a group.

IF so just take a look at RAbobank team. Freire - sprinter, Menchov - TTspecialist, Clement-Good TTer, Gessink-Good TTer, Joost Posthuma-good TTer, they can well play part in TOP 5

 

[auscyclefan94]

What will happen to teams like Cervelo and Silence Lotto with having not so strong teams to support them? I have noticed that those teams have been doing team time trial training camps unlike some of the bigger teams. e.g. lotto in zolder. Can any of those teams pull out the big surprise. I think Sastre will struggle a lot in the first part of the tour as the ITT where he will lose time and the ttt where cervelo in general will likely lose big time. Their are many second tier teams who could surprise the upset such as rabobank, Cervelo, and Silence Lotto. The team time trial is always a great spectacle to watch in cycling but the ttt at the tour should be extra interesting due to many teams can win and cause the upset.

 

[msjett]

I think that the odds on faves have to be Columbia and Astana, I haven't seen Garmin in a TTT (time difference is a ***** for watching races). I think there could easily be a surprise winner, not sure who could do it though...but you never know, if it is a wet day, then anything can happen.

But we will have to wait and see.

 

[ambrose]

Silence lotto won't go to bad. We all know cadel can TT, but they've got Lang in this year as well, Vansummeren, Greg Van Avermaet won't be to weak. BUt certainly there is some serious weakness here but they have worked hard on the disipline,
Cervelo won't be to far behind, but they will losse minutes i feel. No standouts here.
columbumbia for me, and astana close by.

 

[phillop]

i dont understand why every ones asuming cervelos team isnt going to be strong, i think they will be one of the strongest teams, look at the results they got at the giro. Hushovd, hausler, roulston and lancaster will be great asets in the TTT, strong strong tt riders that are also sprinters and formerly team pursuit rider.

 

[BroDeal]

Columbia will take it. They have a well drilled TTT team. But what is really important is that a win over Garmin will allow Cav to again publicly laugh at the burrito boys (and the brits on that team).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

1. Highroad
2. Astana
3. CSC
4. Garmin
5. Rabobank

(S-L will do ok too, dekker, land and cadel... Cervelo i think will struggle. good luck carlos)

 

[auscyclefan94]

1. Highroad
2. Astana
3. CSC
4. Garmin
5. Rabobank

(S-L will do ok too, dekker, land and cadel... Cervelo i think will struggle. good luck carlos)

Whoa! you didn't tip rabobank to win. i'm surprised

 

[kloftus1044]

In order: Astana, Columbia, Garmin, and Saxo.

But, with the TTT at only 39km, I don't think the time gaps are going to be very large

At 55kph: 42 minutes, 32 seconds to finish.
At 54kph: 43 minutes, 20 seconds to finish.