Stage 6 prediction

[Krzysztof_O]

Not gonna lie, for me this is the most anticipated day in this Tour and it's been the case for half a year. It's for two reasons:
1) The hardness of Tourmalet coupled with a shallow climb to Gavarnie make a long range GC action possible.
2) The stage is so isolated (the next big GC stage is stage 14) that some guys may want to make the most of good legs and put the hammer down on the brutal second half of the Tourmalet.

From my perspective it would be the best for the race if some moderage gap (i.e. 30-40 seconds) is created between top2 so that the last week of the race isn't too tactical with one side forced to risk a bit and attack first. If it's super close all the time we will see Vingo and Pog looking at each other till very late in the race.

 

[Netserk]

maybe between option 1 and 2

 

[Krzysztof_O]

maybe between option 1 and 2

Option 6 also seems likely if Pogi isn't much stronger than Vingo. If they are close then Del Toro's pull could make the difference (if it happens at all, Pogi may spare his good buddy).

 

[AmRacer]

Jonas and Pogi attack on Tourmalet, they get a gap of 1-2 minutes on a group of 3. Pogi wins the sprint with Jonas. Sexias wins the sprint for third, Del Toro fourth and Lipo fifth.

 

[pihi42]

Jonas and Pogi attack on Tourmalet, they get a gap of 1-2 minutes on a group of 3. Pogi wins the sprint with Jonas. Sexias wins the sprint for third, Del Toro fourth and Lipo fifth.

I think in this case, Vingegaard would have to pull by himself. Which in turn would create conditions for another Pogi attack. Pogačar certainly would not pull Vinge if DelToro is just behind.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Jonas and Pogi attack on Tourmalet, they get a gap of 1-2 minutes on a group of 3. Pogi wins the sprint with Jonas. Sexias wins the sprint for third, Del Toro fourth and Lipo fifth.

Vingo likely won't cooperate with Pogi, who won't be willing to pull his nemezis to the finish.

 

[AmRacer]

I think in this case, Vingegaard would have to pull by himself. Which in turn would create conditions for another Pogi attack. Pogačar certainly would not pull Vinge if DelToro is just behind.

1-2 minutes would be enough for Pogi to pull with Jonas.

 

[AmRacer]

Vingo likely won't cooperate with Pogi, who won't be willing to pull his nemezis to the finish.

They have done so before

 

[Krzysztof_O]

They have done so before

Yeah, 5 years ago on Portet. A lot has happened since then. Vingo didn't cooperate even with Gall.

 

[pihi42]

I see another option. Pogi attacks on Tourmalet. Vinge goes after him, lets the gap go. Then Vinge starts gaining on Pogi and catches him on the descent. Pogi doesn't pull. DelToro doesn't pull (Seixas and perhaps Remco if he's with them). The groups come together and Pogi wins the sprint, deflated. Vingegaard feels happy. Discussions are inflamed across the cyclonet. We all wait for stage 14.

 

[AmRacer]

Yeah, 5 years ago on Portet. A lot has happened since then. Vingo didn't cooperate even with Gall.

Jonas saved for tomorrow.

 

[Schachus]

None of these options have anyone finish solo after attacking a non-cooperating group on the last climb, which is quite likely imo. If Tourmalet doesnt leave anyone solo, but eliminates the domestiques, that could likely happen

 

[Netserk]

None of these options have anyone finish solo after attacking a non-cooperating group on the last climb, which is quite likely imo. If Tourmalet doesnt leave anyone solo, but eliminates the domestiques, that could likely happen

if both del toro and pogi are there , one of them will win

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I have put everything I have on Pogačar. If he doesn't win, then he will owe me 5 bucks.

 

[miller152]

Pogacar attacks on the Tourmalet, Vingegaard follows. Vingegaard isn't willing to work, so they are caught by a small group of chasers, including Del Toro.

UAE wins the sprint with either of their riders. Without the heatwave though, Pogacar would drop everybody and stretch the gap with Vingegaard to over a minute at the finish line.

 

[YavorD]

I have put everything I have on Pogačar. If he doesn't win, then he will owe me 5 bucks.

If he wins, you should have something like 5,1 bucks.

What are you planning to do with this fortune?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If he wins, you should have something like 5,1 bucks.

What are you planning to do with this fortune?

10 cents for charity (the world will become a better place) and the rest to fulfill his/her dreams.

 

[canina82]

Where is the option "Pogacar finishes solo with a +2' gap"?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

If he wins, you should have something like 5,1 bucks.

What are you planning to do with this fortune?

I am thinking of betting on De Lie on one of the coming stages. He's going a bit under the radar at the moment, kind of like he's not even in the race, but I heard he finished stage 3 faster than anyone so he clearly still has enough speed to win.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Where is the option "Pogacar finishes solo with a +2' gap"?

First option, those gaps are just examples.

 

[YavorD]

I am thinking of betting on De Lie on one of the coming stages. He's going a bit under the radar at the moment, kind of like he's not even in the race, but I heard he finished stage 3 faster than anyone so he clearly still has enough speed to win.

But you'll obviously wait for stage 14 and 15 to bet on De Lie, right?
Maybe bet for both stages. Can't go awry that way.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

But you'll obviously wait for stage 14 and 15 to bet on De Lie, right?
Maybe bet for both stages. Can't go awry that way.

I think he can win in Paris as well. Then they will start calling Montmartre "The Belgian Mountain".

 

[pihi42]

I can even see UAE not controlling the break, then drilling it on Tourmalet to shave something off the 8' deficit. Then if Pogi feels it, he can attack some 20 minutes to the top.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I can even see UAE not controlling the break, then drilling it on Tourmalet to shave something off the 8' deficit. Then if Pogi feels it, he can attack some 20 minutes to the top.

Winning the stage doesn't matter, it's about gaps. If saving guys on flat will make a bigger impact on climbs they should do it.

 

[canina82]

Where is the option "Pogacar finishes solo with a +2' gap"?

A GdL performance.