Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[canina82]

True, but recons vs knowing every detail with your eyes closed.

They ride on circuits in world and euro championships. They probably do more than 20x times the main climb before the race and 2x in the actual race before any important move.

 

[Daywalker600]

They ride on circuits in world and euro championships. They probably do more than 20x times the main climb before the race and 2x in the actual race before any important move.

Probably will suffice i guess

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What better way to do it than one last 100m pull for Pogacar before going off to the pub.

Nah but the route suits Roglic a lot as well (he would prefer a finish on top though), so he should be quite competitive on this.

It would be much better if they attack together and cross the finish line holding hands (Rogla making sure to be 1 cm ahead).

 

[canina82]

It would be much better if they attack together and cross the finish line holding hands (Rogla making sure to be 1 cm ahead).

I'm not so sure he will be competitive even if this route is almost perfect for a prime Roglic.

 

[jotafap]

I'm not so sure he will be competitive even if this route is almost perfect for a prime Roglic.

He won’t. He never has been since Pogacar became the sole leader.

 

[canina82]

He won’t. He never has been since Pogacar became the sole leader.

I hope to see him launching Pogacar and dropping Remco on the run.

 

[BubbaChuck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2056767531306602762

View: https://x.com/InsideOut2912/status/2056767531306602762/photo/1

 

[canina82]

Vingegaard is losing a lot in these flat TTs. It's a bless the TT in the Tour is hilly. Pogacar would kill him there.

 

[rafa92]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2056767531306602762

View: https://x.com/InsideOut2912/status/2056767531306602762/photo/1

Don't think it's overreaction, seixas is way more dangerous than vingegaard for pogacar at the tour, especially because it's still unknown how good seixas can be in a few months. But even the level shown by seixas at basque is better than this vingegaard, both in long climbs and TT. The only question mark for seixas is week 3 in a GT, and that's the reason the odds for vingegaard are still close...

 

[canina82]

Don't think it's overreaction, seixas is way more dangerous than vingegaard for pogacar at the tour, especially because it's still unknown how good seixas can be in a few months. But even the level shown by seixas at basque is better than this vingegaard, both in long climbs and TT. The only question mark for seixas is week 3 in a GT, and that's the reason the odds for vingegaard are still close...

Exactly this. We don't know how good can Seixas be in 2 months. Vingegaard can't beat Pogacar anymore, we know that.

 

[BahamontesPhantom]

Don't think it's overreaction, seixas is way more dangerous than vingegaard for pogacar at the tour, especially because it's still unknown how good seixas can be in a few months. But even the level shown by seixas at basque is better than this vingegaard, both in long climbs and TT. The only question mark for seixas is week 3 in a GT, and that's the reason the odds for vingegaard are still close...

It’s not even a question , Seixas is too young. Best he can do at this tour is 3rd barring crashes

 

[BahamontesPhantom]

Exactly this. We don't know how good can Seixas be in 2 months. Vingegaard can't beat Pogacar anymore, we know that

It’s unlikely but the guy who is 2-3 with him and still in his prime has got to be favoured over the 19 year old with no grand tour credentials as yet..

 

[canina82]

It’s unlikely but the guy who is 2-3 with him and still in his prime has got to be favoured over the 19 year old with no grand tour credentials as yet..

Bookmakers don't believe in Vingegaard too. Seixas is already in front of him and the gap will be bigger after Dauphiné

 

[canina82]

New setup is ready. Another win in the hilly TT for him.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/cycling-kit-accessories/helmets/tadej-pogacars-new-tt-setup-is-finally-complete-thanks-to-massive-new-met-helmet-seen-at-giro-d-italia-time-trial/

 

[SHAD0W93]

Bookmakers don't believe in Vingegaard too. Seixas is already in front of him and the gap will be bigger after Dauphiné

Booking odds are just based on who’s being bet on though.

 

[canina82]

Booking odds are just based on who’s being bet on though.

At the beginning, Vingegaard had better odds, something has changed. I'm pretty sure Seixas will beat Vingegaard.

 

[BahamontesPhantom]

Bookmakers don't believe in Vingegaard too. Seixas is already in front of him and the gap will be bigger after Dauphiné

Let’s see in the tour, unless fisherman crashes out , Seixas will be nowhere near both of them

 

[dercuforever]

Exactly this. We don't know how good can Seixas be in 2 months. Vingegaard can't beat Pogacar anymore, we know that.

I watched a very informative study on Seixas growth for last 3/4 years, and his 10-20 min power only grew like 10%.
Instead he got better at doing those power at the end of longer races.
It is very unlikely that he'll gain another 10 percent, since he is already living like a pro since he is 16.
And sadly, Pogacar on 10-40 min effort is 10% better than him.

I wouldn't get my hope too high. This is not 2010 anymore. New riders get their peak power very young (Ayuso, Evenepoel) and tend to not improve very much from 20 to 26/28, except for Pogacar.

 

[canina82]

I watched a very informative study on Seixas growth for last 3/4 years, and his 10-20 min power only grew like 10%.
Instead he got better at doing those power at the end of longer races.
It is very unlikely that he'll gain another 10 percent, since he is already living like a pro since he is 16.
And sadly, Pogacar on 10-40 min effort is 10% better than him.

I wouldn't get my hope too high. This is not 2010 anymore. New riders get their peak power very young (Ayuso, Evenepoel) and tend to not improve very much from 20 to 26/28, except for Pogacar.

I don't believe that. We just need to assess his level in ECRR/GdL and his level now. Big difference.

 

[dercuforever]

I don't believe that. We just need to assess his level in ECRR/GdL and his level now. Big difference.

This is at the end of a long race, he improved that particular skill (stamina).
At 16 he did 6.4w/kg for 20 min.
This year :
At Algavre : 6,5w/kg for 19'40".
At Faune Ardeche : 6,75 w/kg for 17'
At Basque : 6,45w/kg for 24'

In 3 years, in which his physique matured a lot, he only improved at most 0,3w/kg. And this is now using everything he can, altitude training, pro coaching and equipment ...

Pogacar did 6,4 w/kg for 40 min (PDB), and 7,15w/kg for 17min (Peyragudes).

Seixas would need to improve as much as he did since he was 16, to be able to challenge Pogacar.

The video :

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fH-n9pvRWw

 

[canina82]

This is at the end of a long race, he improved that particular skill (stamina).
At 16 he did 6.4w/kg for 20 min.
This year :
At Algavre : 6,5w/kg for 19'40".
At Faune Ardeche : 6,75 w/kg for 17'
At Basque : 6,45w/kg for 24'

In 3 years, in which his physique matured a lot, he only improved at most 0,3w/kg. And this is now using everything he can, altitude training, pro coaching and equipment ...

Pogacar did 6,4 w/kg for 40 min (PDB), and 7,15w/kg for 17min (Peyragudes).

Seixas would need to improve as much as he did since he was 16, to be able to challenge Pogacar.

The video :

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fH-n9pvRWw

Those numbers are very low. No way, Pogacar did only 7.15 w/kg on Peyragudes.

 

[Peyresourde]

This is at the end of a long race, he improved that particular skill (stamina).
At 16 he did 6.4w/kg for 20 min.
This year :
At Algavre : 6,5w/kg for 19'40".
At Faune Ardeche : 6,75 w/kg for 17'
At Basque : 6,45w/kg for 24'

In 3 years, in which his physique matured a lot, he only improved at most 0,3w/kg. And this is now using everything he can, altitude training, pro coaching and equipment ...

Pogacar did 6,4 w/kg for 40 min (PDB), and 7,15w/kg for 17min (Peyragudes).

Seixas would need to improve as much as he did since he was 16, to be able to challenge Pogacar.

The video :

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fH-n9pvRWw

Sorry, but many of these numbers are far too low. Velo2max also estimated Seixas at around 8 w/kg on La Redoute, which is 1000% too low. He did bare minimum 8.5 w/kg there. Faun Ardeche is also completely unrealistic. And PdB for Pogacar also far too low.

And for the older numbers, at 16 years of age he was apparently 10kg lighter than now. Lighter guys have to push more w/kg to go the same speed (etalon effect), so you can mentally add around 0.2 w/kg to difference between then and now.

 

[dercuforever]

Sorry, but many of these numbers are far too low. Velo2max also estimated Seixas at around 8 w/kg on La Redoute, which is 1000% too low. He did bare minimum 8.5 w/kg there. Faun Ardeche is also completely unrealistic. And PdB for Pogacar also far too low.

And for the older numbers, at 16 years of age he was apparently 10kg lighter than now. Lighter guys have to push more w/kg to go the same speed (etalon effect), so you can mentally add around 0.2 w/kg to difference between then and now.

His calculation seemed correct because he often compare it with the numbers revealed by pros on the same day (like Onley for example), but I'll trust you on that.

Still if we take your numbers, what kind of improvement do you see from Seixas at 15 and now ? And what is the gap to peak Pogacar ?

Also, do you have many riders reaching 75+ at 20, and improving by 10 by the time they are 25-30 ?
Because as of now, Seixas seems to be around 90, and needs to reach 100 to fight Pogacar.

 

[Peyresourde]

His calculation seemed correct because he often compare it with the numbers revealed by pros on the same day (like Onley for example), but I'll trust you on that.

Still if we take your numbers, what kind of improvement do you see from Seixas at 15 and now ? And what is the gap to peak Pogacar ?

Also, do you have many riders reaching 75+ at 20, and improving by 10 by the time they are 25-30 ?
Because as of now, Seixas seems to be around 90, and needs to reach 100 to fight Pogacar.

Just as an example if want to rely on measured power: Ben Healy last year did La Redoute in 4'10 at exactly 8 w/kg measured (mostly in the draft). This year Seixas did it in 3'49. This is 21 seconds or 8.4 % faster. If we just take 8.4 % more power (which still underestimates because the power necessary does not increase linearly with speed) we get 8.67 w/kg for Seixas this year.

Of course, I also make mistakes and not all of Velo2max's calculations are wrong, but some important ones for his arguments like Redoute and Faun-Ardeche (the 2 best performances of Seixas) are clearly wrong.


I personally don't have any data on Seixas prior to last year. If we assume he really did 6.4 for 20 in a time trial at age 16, that would be a raw Index of 69 and high negative adjustment around -10 depending on altitude etc., so equal to 6.15 w/kg after a normal road race stage.

Let's say he can now do 85-90 on a climb after a normal stage, so maybe 6.85 w/kg. So the improvement would be 0.7 w/kg since he was 16, or a bit over 10%. And his punch on short climbs must have improved much more than that (from being dropped by Widar to following Pogacar).


Most riders improve by much more than 10 Index points (=0.25 w/kg) between 20 and 27. Exceptions also exist and improvement is harder the higher your level already is, e.g. Ayuso or Bernal. I can't predict the future regarding Seixas and all his best performances until now were on shorter climbs. It could be that he is a bit worse at longer efforts. We will get a lot of answers this summer already.

 

[dercuforever]

Just as an example if want to rely on measured power: Ben Healy last year did La Redoute in 4'10 at exactly 8 w/kg measured (mostly in the draft). This year Seixas did it in 3'49. This is 21 seconds or 8.4 % faster. If we just take 8.4 % more power (which still underestimates because the power necessary does not increase linearly with speed) we get 8.67 w/kg for Seixas this year.

Of course, I also make mistakes and not all of Velo2max's calculations are wrong, but some important ones for his arguments like Redoute and Faun-Ardeche (the 2 best performances of Seixas) are clearly wrong.


I personally don't have any data on Seixas prior to last year. If we assume he really did 6.4 for 20 in a time trial at age 16, that would be a raw Index of 69 and high negative adjustment around -10 depending on altitude etc., so equal to 6.15 w/kg after a normal road race stage.

Let's say he can now do 85-90 on a climb after a normal stage, so maybe 6.85 w/kg. So the improvement would be 0.7 w/kg since he was 16, or a bit over 10%. And his punch on short climbs must have improved much more than that (from being dropped by Widar to following Pogacar).


Most riders improve by much more than 10 Index points (=0.25 w/kg) between 20 and 27. Exceptions also exist and improvement is harder the higher your level already is, e.g. Ayuso or Bernal. I can't predict the future regarding Seixas and all his best performances until now were on shorter climbs. It could be that he is a bit worse at longer efforts. We will get a lot of answers this summer already.

Thank you for that complete response.
I did understand velo2max uses standardized 70kg rider for his estimations, but I don't know if the change the overall result.
I do hope you are correct and that he'll still progress so that we have a new challenger for Pogacar in GTs.