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Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Contador in 2011.
I don't think Contador was a bigger favorite than Pogacar is now. Contador was the undisputed king at that point, but his edge over the rest of the field wasn't perceived to be what Pogacars is minus Vingegaard.

Also, the field of the 2011 Giro looked quite strong for that period, whereas the competition for Pogacar looks very tame to me.
 
I don't think Contador was a bigger favorite than Pogacar is now. Contador was the undisputed king at that point, but his edge over the rest of the field wasn't perceived to be what Pogacars is minus Vingegaard.

Also, the field of the 2011 Giro looked quite strong for that period, whereas the competition for Pogacar looks very tame to me.
It is looking back but at the time it wasn’t for that Giro. All the others listed as favorites, Contador had beat substantially in the previous Grand Tours not to mention that he’d won 5/5 of his previous GT starts.

Looking at some of the betting odds, Pogacar has an advantage from two sites at 1.33 and 1.33 while Contador was 1.6 and 1.73. Second favorite odds for both were rated at 6 while third favorite is advantage to Contador. So it’s similar favoritism for the two according to the bettors.

Not to mention Contador walked away with 2 stages and the points classification when he could have won another 2-4 more plus the mountains classification. It was total domination and what most of us are expecting Pogacar to do as well.

 
Contador hadn't lost the Tour the past two years. Will Pogi crack again?
Maybe. More likely fade than crack spectacularly as we saw on stage 17. But likely Pog won’t have the crash and injury interruption he did in 2023. But then this year he is doing the Giro. I am guessing he would need to ride as passively as possible in the Giro to give himself any chance of rivalling Vingegaard at the TdF. Very difficult when you are aiming to win it.

In 2011 Contador was the overwhelming favourite to pull off the double. Everyone is wise in hindsight.
 
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That wasn't the question. Contador was in 2011 a more sure bet to beat his opponents in that Giro than Pogi will be in May. Not because Pogi is likely to fail, but because Contador was even more assured to sail through.
I don't know, i think is a sure bet in a similar level.

The most stronger opponent Pog will face, is a former Tour de france winner, but the difference between the two is high, just like contador against scarponi or nibali.
 
2009 Contador was a monster
He was, but he still got smashed in Dauphine and got beaten in both Paris-Nice (what happened on that stage where he lost almost 3 minutes on LLS, I can’t remember??) and Castilla y Leon that season.

Looking at Pogacar, he hasn’t been beaten in a one week stage races since Itulzia 2021 and has won 8 of 9 of these races in his last 3 seasons. He’s also a monster, even if he’s been spanked two times by Vingegaard in the Tour. Including the tour he’s won 10 of 13 GC starting with the Tour 2020. Damn impressive.

——
when it comes to who was the bigger favorite, I’d say that it’s in my eyes is pretty similar situations, Pogacar this Giro and Contador 2011 Giro.
 
He was, but he still got smashed in Dauphine and got beaten in both Paris-Nice (what happened on that stage where he lost almost 3 minutes on LLS, I can’t remember??) and Castilla y Leon that season.

Looking at Pogacar, he hasn’t been beaten in a one week stage races since Itulzia 2021 and has won 8 of 9 of these races in his last 3 seasons. He’s also a monster, even if he’s been spanked two times by Vingegaard in the Tour. Including the tour he’s won 10 of 13 GC starting with the Tour 2020. Damn impressive.

——
when it comes to who was the bigger favorite, I’d say that it’s in my eyes is pretty similar situations, Pogacar this Giro and Contador 2011 Giro.
It's also fair to say that Contador never faced opponents so strongest than the opponents pogacar faced.

In 2009 he faced a young andy schleck who was also really bad in TT(actually he always was).

Verbier performance gives an incredible aura to contador, he never did the mythical "7 w/kg" that was talked for a long time (it was 6.7 w/kg in a unipuerto stage). It was a very famous and good performance but overrated.
 
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It's also fair to say that Contador never faced opponents so strongest than the opponents pogacar faced.

In 2009 he faced a young andy schleck who was also really bad in TT(actually he always was).

Verbier performance gives an incredible aura to contador, he never did the mythical "7 w/kg" that was talked for a long time (it was 6.7 w/kg in a unipuerto stage). It was a very famous and good performance but overrated.
Mate, Contador raced in an era that is completely ancient compared to now. Back when you could win Sanremo on three gels and a banana.
 
It's also fair to say that Contador never faced opponents so strongest than the opponents pogacar faced.

In 2009 he faced a young andy schleck who was also really bad in TT(actually he always was).

Verbier performance gives an incredible aura to contador, he never did the mythical "7 w/kg" that was talked for a long time (it was 6.7 w/kg in a unipuerto stage). It was a very famous and good performance but overrated.
No. In 2009 Contador had to beat his own team and Lance. Vingegaard has always had the strongest team to support him, that was very obvious in 2022 but still the case in 2023.

On Verbier, Greg Lemond estimated it would require a VO2 max of 100 to do what Contador did that day. So I guess close to your boy 😉.

It will take a few more years before anyone can claim Vingegaard to be a better stage racer than Contador. For starters Vibgegaard needs to actually win a Giro or Vuelta. Perhaps the reason he hasn’t tried the Giro yet is he has doubts and fears of Pogacar?

Please note I still think Vingegaard is the overwhelming favourite for the TdF, especially with Pog now doing the Giro. But it is a softer looking Giro, both in terms of climbing and possible competition so who really knows how he might recover by July?
 
No. In 2009 Contador had to beat his own team and Lance. Vingegaard has always had the strongest team to support him, that was very obvious in 2022 but still the case in 2023.

On Verbier, Greg Lemond estimated it would require a VO2 max of 100 to do what Contador did that day. So I guess close to your boy 😉.

It will take a few more years before anyone can claim Vingegaard to be a better stage racer than Contador. For starters Vibgegaard needs to actually win a Giro or Vuelta. Perhaps the reason he hasn’t tried the Giro yet is he has doubts and fears of Pogacar?

Please note I still think Vingegaard is the overwhelming favourite for the TdF, especially with Pog now doing the Giro. But it is a softer looking Giro, both in terms of climbing and possible competition so who really knows how he might recover by July?
Greg lemond estimated that VO2 max because they were talking about him doing 7 or 7.2 w/kg on that day. It's impossible, because on that case, bradley wiggins who finished 1 minute behind, did an unbeliavable performance of 6.8/6.9 w/kg.

Ammattipyoraily calculated 6.7 w/kg.

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1111750462859038720?lang=de
 
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That wasn't the question. Contador was in 2011 a more sure bet to beat his opponents in that Giro than Pogi will be in May. Not because Pogi is likely to fail, but because Contador was even more assured to sail through.
Who is Pogi’s main competition at the Giro? I’m not seeing much? Damiano Caruso, Buchmann, Kelderman? Or are you suggesting Cian Uijtdebroeks is a threat?

In 2011 Contador had to beat Scarponi who doesn’t seem any easier to beat than what I see lining up in this years Giro?
 
Or put another way, I think if both lined up for 2011 and 2024 Giro that Contador would be the favorite for 2011 due to the route, climbing, and overall hardness all around while Pog would be the favorite for 2024 due to his ability to gain time on any type of stage.
 
It will take a few more years before anyone can claim Vingegaard to be a better stage racer than Contador. For starters Vibgegaard needs to actually win a Giro or Vuelta. Perhaps the reason he hasn’t tried the Giro yet is he has doubts and fears of Pogacar?

Please note I still think Vingegaard is the overwhelming favourite for the TdF, especially with Pog now doing the Giro. But it is a softer looking Giro, both in terms of climbing and possible competition so who really knows how he might recover by July?
If anyone has doubts and fears at this point, surely it's Pogacar. Choosing to do the Giro doesn't exactly show a lot of confidence in being able to beat Vingegaard. It's more like "well, if I can't win the Tour this year, at least I've won the Giro". It's just the way these things are framed, with Pogacar it's always in terms of adventure and courage, but you might as well see it as a copout.

And of course it takes away any pressure from the Tour, if he doesn't win he can point to the Giro, if he does win he can say: it's a miracle, I can win the Tour after the Giro! Which would be perfectly possible. Dumoulin finished second in the Tour after coming second in the Giro, and he said he was actually better in the Tour. Certainly a relatively "easy" Giro with weak opposition could just be a good training camp for the Tour.
 
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Pogi cracked for one reason only - Vingegaard. There is no Vingegaard, hence, he is easily the best climber in the race, hence, no cracking.

Probably.
Not one reason, two. You forget Pog’s LBL crash, broken wrist and loss of time on the bike. Base miles which is why I think he completely collapsed on stage 17 after going too deep in the TT.
 
Not one reason, two. You forget Pog’s LBL crash, broken wrist and loss of time on the bike. Base miles which is why I think he completely collapsed on stage 17 after going too deep in the TT.
Well, yes and no. Vingegaard dropped him 2 years in a row. No Vingegaard and he cruises to the win in each. Ofc prep was not ideal last year but no Vingegaard and he would have looked dominant.
 
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