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Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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So obviously Vingegaards preparation for the Tour would be far from ideal, even if he can start. But what I fail to understand is this obsession of comparing his recovery to that of Pogacar last year and using the fact Pogacar got beaten as proof that even Poacars preparation last year wasn't enough to win. But that argument just takes it for granted that Pogacar could have been much better without the wrist injury which we have no proof of whatsoever. All things considered I think it's fair to say that he looked better last year than in 2022, so why should I think the injury made a big difference? Maybe a small one, maybe him cracking on Col de la Loze had something to do with bad preparation, but that's pure speculation.

My guess is, Vingegaard will not be good enough to win the Tour, but I'm not certain of that and I'm definitely not certain of it because of some comparison to an injury that left Pogacar in a shape in which he absolutely could have won the Tour. Some people wrote off Contador before the 2014 Vuelta, I'll not make that mistake with Vingegaard a decade later.
I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.

For Vingegaard the problem I see isn't that he just has a limited time to get to his peak level, it's that the position he needs to recover from is gonna be much worse than what a Contador had to do in 2014. He wasn't at Tour level in Itzulia, he was near the end of his first racing block, and he spent a very significant amount of time so immobile it's gonna detrain very quickly.

The question is basically now if a rider can basically go from something similar to untrained December shape, which mind you is much better these days, to his very best level in about 6 weeks of training.

I don't think this is similar to injuries where the form is there and you just need to heal from the injury quickly and them bum rush a quick high intensity block. To me it's more similar to Evenepoel flailing around in his first Giro or Roglic getting surgery in late 2022 with Jumbo thinking he may not reach top shape by the Giro months later.

If anything, the idea that Vingegaard can be competitive at the Tour goes against just about everything I've learned about pro level training
 
I don’t agree that he’s taking it easy. Every mountain stage he took time, he went deep. He’s much better than the competition but that doesn’t mean you can freewheel to victory.

Just like Vingegaard goes deep to win his GT’s and 1-week stage races.
But he didn't take time on every mountain stage. On Prati di Tivo he rode in with the GC group and out-sprinted them. In the Sterrato stage he held fire. He looks fresh as a daisy, not someone tired from going deep every day for three weeks.
 
This is a pretty ambitious plan. Only one week off and then altitude o_O Is it even a typical approach for doing the double? I though more rest between Giro and Tour was planned by guys in the past. Maybe they will start the camp easily and increase intensity in week2 and week3.
I don't know but a full week off the bike already seems long. Thought they would rather work with recovery rides. No way, one can be in top form, taking off 2-3 weeks fully with only 1 month to go...
 
If we think a little, we know Vingegaard won't be ready for the Tour. He spent 13 days in the hospital (he was even in intensive care) and then some time off the bike (I think 2 weeks). How can he be in peak shape ( or near peak shape) with 9 weeks to prepare the Tour? Even Pogacar can't do it last year with a wrist injury (he broke his hand 9 weeks before the Tour), how can Vingegaard do it with injuries way more severe? Tour is a mirage unfortunately.
Obviously not peak shape but I still wouldn't rule out that if he makes it and shows up, he will be one of the best. Take Pogacar out the last 2 years and he had similar gaps than Pogacar in this Giro. They are just levels above the rest.
 
I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.

For Vingegaard the problem I see isn't that he just has a limited time to get to his peak level, it's that the position he needs to recover from is gonna be much worse than what a Contador had to do in 2014. He wasn't at Tour level in Itzulia, he was near the end of his first racing block, and he spent a very significant amount of time so immobile it's gonna detrain very quickly.

The question is basically now if a rider can basically go from something similar to untrained December shape, which mind you is much better these days, to his very best level in about 6 weeks of training.

I don't think this is similar to injuries where the form is there and you just need to heal from the injury quickly and them bum rush a quick high intensity block. To me it's more similar to Evenepoel flailing around in his first Giro or Roglic getting surgery in late 2022 with Jumbo thinking he may not reach top shape by the Giro months later.

If anything, the idea that Vingegaard can be competitive at the Tour goes against just about everything I've learned about pro level training
Lets ignore the mental aspects of the crash that could affect a person and not having an ideal preparation. Not even thinking about the physical set back and having to do alternative training for weeks.

Saying he was gonna take it easy anyway is lazy and lame.

It also takes a lot of energy to heal and to recover, when he was supposed to "rest". His body and mind basically didnt get any rest at all.

We also dont know if he still rode with some pain or not in the Tour. Not mentioning the potential sickness, not recovering after the big effort in the TT etc.

Evenepoel and Roglic should be fine.

Vingegaard too. He is already training. Whats the problem? Keep it consistent.
 
Obviously not peak shape but I still wouldn't rule out that if he makes it and shows up, he will be one of the best. Take Pogacar out the last 2 years and he had similar gaps than Pogacar in this Giro. They are just levels above the rest.
When I wrote he won't be ready, I was writing about not being able to fight for the win unless Pogacar and Roglic crash out. And we are talking about Vingegaard, Tour defending champion, the last thing I want to see is a scenario similar to Remco in the 2021 Giro.
 
On these very mediocre mountain stages, the only time Jonas realistically could put Pogi in danger would be on Grappa. Close to impossible to beat him on this route.
Probably. Jumbo A-team drilling first lap of Grappa would hit different.

I also just think the Tour route is just really bad for Vingegaard, even in peak shape. I basically only really like the Plateau de Beille stage for him.
 

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I’m not saying every mountain stage, but those he took time. He doesn’t look fresh as a daisy, would be ridiculous after 3 weeks
3 weeks where no one has forced him and he has made the efforts when and how he wanted. To me this sounds like training, and in the hardest stages he looked very good after finish, I don't know if like a daisy, I'm not a botanist...
 

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I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.
The lack of training is the basis, I believe, no one wants to go to a Tour starting to train well in June. If this had not affected the concentrations at altitude in May they are a waste of time.
 
Jonas will field a team that can control the race and pace him back if needed. If Jumbo is as strong as we have seen in recent Tours, it will be very hard for Tadej to deliver on the double. What a feat it would be! What an opportunity! He can do it.
This year it will be Jonas, Kuss and Jorg vs Yates Pog, Ayuso, Almeida. I don't think UAE will ever be under represented this year.
 
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This year it will be Jonas, Kuss and Jorg vs Yates Pog, Ayuso, Almeida. I don't think UAE will ever be under represented this year.
Almeida will do his thing of sitting at the back of the group, drop before his help is needed and yoyo his way back to get a top-10 result without having spent a second in front of Tadej. And I wouldn't bet on Ayuso sacrificing himself for Tadej like A.Yates did last year in Joux-Plane, ignoring completely the threat to his own GC aspirations of eventual stage winner Carlos Rodríguez.
After having watched Catalunya this year, it may sound ironic to say that Tadej will need at the Tour more Soler and less Almeida.
 
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