I give MVDP a chance of riding for the podium like in LBL this year where he got dropped by the chasers but group 2 dynamics allowed him to claw his way back then sprint well at the end.MVDP weighs much less, check his face, it's like Evenepoel at Dauphine and at TDF difference. He also doesn't have a long peak from WC CX -> Roubaix behind his belt now, he's fresher.
Obviously he won't be able to follow when Pogacar goes, but I don't see Pogacar ride away that easily from everyone and finish solo. So if he's joined by others, and the tempo is gone, MVDP is one of the first ones to come back. He was 3rd at LBL for a reason, and he's in better form and physique now.
The race might have 4500 altitude meters, but the route isn't as difficult as people assume at the moment.
Less than a 0.0.1% chance for me that he contests the final 200 metres in contention for the win against Pogacar.