Last year he was in peak shape and he was a non factor in AGR. There is no chance he beats Pogacar with a strong UAE.
I would say, he was in peak shape until Paris-Roubaix and after that his form dropped, but it´s a bit of speculation.. As I already said, he won this race already once in 2019, although his tactical behaviour had been a disaster in that year..
As I said, races with a similar profile like Glasgow 2023 he can be a real threat to Pogacar...
I think the main problem for the Amstel Gold Race for van der Poel is, that it´s very close to Paris-Roubaix and the cobble classics.. He always targets them and especially for Paris-Roubaix you need more muscle mass, so it´s difficult for a rider to target both races in the same year.
But all in all, if van der Poel wouldn´t target the cobble classics and especially Paris- Roubaix before, i can see him beating Pogacar in the Amstel Gold Race..