Question Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[burning]

Of course I think this performance is very suspicious; as I've said several times. But I don't really see why we need to try to exaggerate it, by making claims that he has no TTing pedigree; when he's clearly shown excellent potential and performances in that area. Or by comparing him to a clearly below par Roglic and Dumoulin.

The man beat full alien Aru and Froome performances on the same climb in the 3rd week while matching Dumoulin on the rolling part of the TT. This is a 2007 Albi or 2013 Mont-Saint Michael off the scale level of performance, and he was not exactly a 2009 Cancellara on his previous TT performances.

 

[Rollthedice]

Keep Giannetti out of the title, the kid deserves a thread of his own. Pog's performance today is proof that ketones don't do the trick, must hit the real stuff, hard. Whatever it is.

 

[DFA123]

Specialists are guys like Grabsch, Panzerwagen and Dennis who base pretty much their entire career on their ability to pound huge watts for an hour-ish while being as aero as possible. Pogacar is a stage race/climbing specialist with great TT ability. Pogacar is not a TT specialist, and in a clean field an actual TT specialist should be beating him every time, especially if the stage is flat.

Pogacar has had much better TT results than all of those three had at the same age. On all different kinds of TT.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

He was 19 that year.
You can also look at the U23 TT that year. His time wasn’t good enough to get on the junior podium where they ride with restricted gears.

These are somewhat absurd points of reference. Having good rather than world beating results as a 19 year old conti rider adds nothing much to a conversation about his results as a 21 year old pro either way. It’s not like jumping ahead between the ages of say 31 and 33.

 

[perico]

It's not like saying that at all; literally one of the worst analogies I have ever seen.

Someone who can win TTs aged 21 against a decent field is clearly a specialist. If you didn't realize that he was a specialist before today, then you should have been paying more attention tbh, because lots of people pointed it out in the race threads.

His amateur TTs were pedestrian. Last year he was a bit above average in his lone GT. He was nothing to write home about as a TT rider last year, putting

All of a sudden he comes out of a world enforced lay-off and wins the Tour TT by Indurain gaps. It was like watching pre-cancer Armstrong then post cancer Armstrong in less than a year.

 

[DFA123]

The man beat full alien Aru and Froome performances on the same climb in the 3rd week while matching Dumoulin on the rolling part of the TT. This is a 2007 Albi or 2013 Mont-Saint Michael off the scale level of performance, and he was not exactly a 2009 Cancellara on his previous TT performances.

Right, I agree, there is a hell of a lot to be suspicious about. So I don't really see the point in trying to pretend that he wasn't already an excellent time trialler before? It just takes focus away from this performance.

The other issue is, how did so many other riders also put in great climbing times today? Is there something new in the peloton and Pog is just better anyway? Or is he doing something different?

 

[luckyboy]

He was 19 that year.
You can also look at the U23 TT that year. His time wasn’t good enough to get on the junior podium where they ride with restricted gears.

He was 18 at the time of that race, 18 at the U23 TT and 18 when he won Avenir a month later.

Analysing U23 TT results from two years ago is a ridiculous process in any case, especially when we have no idea what his form is, whether he is completely building for Avenir the next month, whatever..

 

[DFA123]

His amateur TTs were pedestrian. Last year he was a bit above average in his lone GT. He was nothing to write home about as a TT rider last year, putting

All of a sudden he comes out of a world enforced lay-off and wins the Tour TT by Indurain gaps. It was like watching pre-cancer Armstrong then post cancer Armstrong in less than a year.

Except that he is 21 not 28. He's at an age when the best riders in the world will be taking huge strides forwards.

Which again, is not to say that the performance wasn't really suspicious. But there can be multiple factors at play. I don't think the only explanation is the he has to be on a different program to everyone else. He might be doing the same as everyone else and also be a super talent?

A 21 year old making big strides forward in a season isn't quite the same as a 25 year old Ricco or Froome transformation imo.

 

[BlueRoads]

Right, I agree, there is a hell of a lot to be suspicious about. So I don't really see the point in trying to pretend that he wasn't already an excellent time trialler before? It just takes focus away from this performance.

The other issue is, how did so many other riders also put in great climbing times today? Is there something new in the peloton and Pog is just better anyway? Or is he doing something different?

They took out all of Aru's blood and injected Pogacar with all the good stuff of it.

 

[burning]

Right, I agree, there is a hell of a lot to be suspicious about. So I don't really see the point in trying to pretend that he wasn't already an excellent time trialler before? It just takes focus away from this performance.

The other issue is, how did so many other riders also put in great climbing times today? Is there something new in the peloton and Pog is just better anyway? Or is he doing something different?

I do not know what exactly is going on with him and Peloton, but riding with Giannetti and Saronni is not the best yardstick for riding clean.

Edit: Again, no one was claiming that he is a Purito or 2005 Rasmussen in TTs. But he was also NOT a 2009 Cancellara or a 2007 Vino when it came to TTs.

 

[DFA123]

I do not know what exactly is going on with him and Peloton, but riding with Giannetti and Saronni is not the best yardstick for riding clean.

Edit: Again, no one was claiming that he is a Purito or 2005 Rasmussen in TTs. But he was also NOT a 2009 Cancellara or a 2007 Vino when it came to TTs.

No, of course he wasn't putting in performances on that level. And if that is your bar for being a TT specialist than fair enough. But the only other TT he has ridden in the last 12 months he did beat Roglic and put nearly 2 minutes into everyone else. Suggesting a big improvement on what were already very good results the year before.

 

[Red Rick]

Except that he is 21 not 28. He's at an age when the best riders in the world will be taking huge strides forwards.

Which again, is not to say that the performance wasn't really suspicious. But there can be multiple factors at play. I don't think the only explanation is the he has to be on a different program to everyone else. He might be doing the same as everyone else and also be a super talent?

A 21 year old making big strides forward in a season isn't quite the same as a 25 year old Ricco or Froome transformation imo.

And the biggest leaps are taken in the 3rd week of a GT in the span of like 2 days.

 

[GuntherL]

He was 18 at the time of that race, 18 at the U23 TT and 18 when he won Avenir a month later.

Analysing U23 TT results from two years ago is a ridiculous process in any case, especially when we have no idea what his form is, whether he is completely building for Avenir the next month, whatever..

Being born in 1998 makes you 18 apparently in 2018. That’s the kind of science I can’t argue with.

 

[burning]

No, of course he wasn't putting in performances on that level. And if that is your bar for being a TT specialist than fair enough. But the only other TT he has ridden in the last 12 months he did beat Roglic and put nearly 2 minutes into everyone else. Suggesting a big improvement on what were already very good results the year before.

Ok, you are being disingenuous here, he put 2 minutes on a washed Brajkovic or whoever else.

Again, this is not a very good performance, this is an off-the-scale performance. His previous decent to very good results do not warrant such a performance, not even close.

 

[DFA123]

Ok, you are being disingenuous here, he put 2 minutes on a washed Brajkovic or whoever else.

Again, this is not a very good performance, this is an off-the-scale performance. His previous decent to very good results do not warrant such a performance, not even close.

It's not disingenuous at all. He's ridden one TT before this year and won it - beating one of the best TT riders in the world in the process. He was already very good last year.

Yes, this performance is a new level. But it's a new level from an already extremely strong TT, who, at the age of 21 will still be improving. How exactly would you expect a super talent's progression to look like, if not this?

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar has had much better TT results than all of those three had at the same age. On all different kinds of TT.

So because he's almost 22, every possible development is just normal right? Others have made developments later?

 

[DFA123]

So because he's almost 22, every possible development is just normal right? Others have made developments later?

Another straw man? Of course it's not normal; but it is possible for kids that age to take huge strides forward.

All I think is that his progression over the last two years does leave open the possibility that he is actually a genuine super talent. I'm not certain about it, and, in any case, even if he is a super talent it obviously doesn't mean that he's definitely clean. But it may mean that he is not doing something so much different than everyone else.

 

[Red Rick]

Another straw man? Of course it's not normal; but it is possible for kids that age to take huge strides forward.

All I think is that his progression over the last two years does leave open the possibility that he is actually a genuine super talent. I'm not certain about it, and, in any case, even if he is a super talent it obviously doesn't mean that he's definitely clean. But it may mean that he is not doing something so much different than everyone else.

If it were genuine super talent he'd have shown more of that genuine super talent of putting minutes into world class ITTers before today. Genuine super talent doesn't crush and I mean crush records of riders who have doped before him.

 

[basque1]

Did he not do over 7W/kg on the Madeleine?

Oops I meant on the Peyresourde. He did 6.8. Strains credulity, especially in light of the TT performance today.

 

[SafeBet]

What strikes me is this ability to rebound after being on the down side in the last couple of mountain stages.

He looked to be fading in last year's Vuelta as well (losing a minute to Roglic, Valverde and others on Becerril de la Sierra) only to completely erase the field a couple of days later and get his spot on the podium.

Now exactly the same happens in the Tour. There must be something to it.

 

[DFA123]

If it were genuine super talent he'd have shown more of that genuine super talent of putting minutes into world class ITTers before today. Genuine super talent doesn't crush and I mean crush records of riders who have doped before him.

He's 21 and has just won the Tour de France, and you don't think he is a super talent? His performance and progression is pretty much exactly in line with what I'd expect for a once in a generation talent. Which again, does not mean that I think he's necessarily clean.

But if you don't think Pogacar is super talented, then what exactly do you think, that he's an average donkey using some super fuel that no-one else (including no-one else on his own team) can get hold of?

Because that would be like the kind of butthurt argument fans make just because their favourite has been beaten.

 

[Rollthedice]

I remember Contador's ITT in Annecy and an overlooked Nibali ITT in Polsa, Giro 2013. Both were out of this world, Contador beating Canc and others and Nibali putting a minute in the second place. Both made me question some things. What we witnessed today is way above everything.

 

[klintE]

I put effort to go under 70Kg this year.
Now I'm 176/68.
According to PCS Tadej profile he is 176/66
Wow, only more two kilos to loose and I shall be Pogacar-like. Weird.

 

[Red Rick]

He's 21 and has just won the Tour de France, and you don't think he is a super talent? His performance and progression is pretty much exactly in line with what I'd expect for a once in a generation talent. Which again, does not mean that I think he's necessarily clean.

But if you don't think Pogacar is super talented, then what exactly do you think, that he's an average donkey using some super fuel that no-one else (including no-one else on his own team) can get hold of?

Because that would be like the kind of butthurt argument fans make just because their favourite has been beaten.

I think an insane level of talent is required to be top 5 of the Tour. I also think it's impossible to get there without PEDs.

Where the real crazy comes in for me is that he goes from being dropped/struggling on the climbs in stage 17/18 then drops the craziest ITT performance seen in GTs this century, without ever showing any indication of being a world class ITTer before.

That's not just doping, it breaks all patterns we're somewhat likely to see and it's a big indication that it's not a level playing field.

 

[DanielSong39]

So what's next? Does he show up on the World Championship ITT and smash Ganna and Dennis by more than a minute?