TDF 2016 design to give all the 'big 4' an equal chance?

[Singer01]

so after all the hype this year the big 4 turned out to be the big 2. what route characteristic's would you like to see next year that all 4 would go in with an equal chance of victory (by the way, i expect it to be the big 3 next year, nibali will go to the giro if he has any sense).

a triple trip up the galibier for quintana on the penultimate day (is that logistically possible?).
75km plus flat total TT for froome?
the full paris roubaix route with sprinklers on the side of the road for nibali?
all of the above for contador? as he is probably, at his best, the second favourite for all of the above?

 

[Hayabusa]

I would not say Contador was second best on the Cobbles. I think Froome edges him.

I think more TT kilometres, Contador not doing the giro and someone telling Quintana that it is okay to attack is all that is needed for next year. In the end any of the 4 could win on any route as long as the luck goes their way.

 

[LaFlorecita]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

 

[bajbar]

A long hilly time trial would favor Contador even more than Froome. But there will be more time trials next year. I am guessing there will be two time trials - one hilly (around 30 - 40 km) and one flat around 50 km on the penultimate day. I don't think there will be any team time trial or any cobbles - three times in a row would be too much. But there should definitely be Galibier. Hopefully from the side that they should have climbed this year.

 

[capuldemetal]

well..next year NQ might skip the tour.a more mountainous giro might prove tempting

 

[Steven Roots]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

 

[Ramon Koran]

No cobbles, more hilly ardennes stages (for nibali), punchy finishes for Contador, 80 km of tt (one hilly, one flat) and one stage with 3 passes over 2200 m with arrival at the galibier, bonette...

 

[TMP402]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

But that advantage was cancelled out by the ccobbled stage and stage absolutely begging for crosswinds.

 

[jsem94]

I just want a well balanced tour with decisive and long mountain stages, a minimum of 50km of ITT and some difficult moments in the first week (like we've had a few editions in the past few years).

 

[gazr99]

Opening stage TTT, one long ITT maybe with at least 1 hill in it, like this year a couple of cat 2/3 finishes on a hilly stage, less overall hilly stages and more mountain finishes, at least 4 mountain stages that finish on top of a cat 1/hc mountain with at least 1 big mountain to climb over on the way. A cobbled stage as well

 

[TMP402]

Personally I would have only four MTFs, and spread them around as much as possible to stop the usual thing of the last week being mountain-dominant but everyone being too tired to take full advantage of it, and over 120km of TTing.

 

[McLovin]

The 2016 Tour is already designed, I'm sure.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I want 14 sprint stages... no MTF,TTT and TT.

 

[LaFlorecita]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

That's the point.
This parcours was great for Quintana. Nibali had the cobbles and descents to make up time.
The addition of long flat ITT would have been better for Froome, and a very hilly 25-30km ITT for Contador. But that would have decreased Quintana's chances.
So overall I think this parcours (although I don't think it is a good parcours) gave them all a pretty fair chance.

 

[Steven Roots]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

But that advantage was cancelled out by the ccobbled stage and stage absolutely begging for crosswinds.

Well, technically no. Froome is clearly better than Quintana against the clock. I think we can all agree on this.

On the other hand, due to the nature of these stages, crosswinds and cobbles can penalise anyone, regardless of your talent and your ability. They're a great randomizer. This year, they might have been a positive factor for Froome, but its not because of Froome is better on this field. Last year, Froome fall and retired on the cobbled stage...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

No cobbles, more hilly ardennes stages (for nibali), punchy finishes for Contador, 80 km of tt (one hilly, one flat) and one stage with 3 passes over 2200 m with arrival at the galibier, bonette...

You do realize Froome is better at those than Contador, right?

 

[PremierAndrew]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

But that advantage was cancelled out by the ccobbled stage and stage absolutely begging for crosswinds.

Well, technically no. Froome is clearly better than Quintana against the clock. I think we can all agree on this.

On the other hand, due to the nature of these stages, crosswinds and cobbles can penalise anyone, regardless of your talent and your ability. They're a great randomizer. This year, they might have been a positive factor for Froome, but its not because of Froome is better on this field. Last year, Froome fall and retired on the cobbled stage...

Froome didn't fall and retire because of the cobbles though... he fell and retired because he was unable to handle his bike on the slippery tarmac because he injured his wrist the day before

 

[Steven Roots]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

That's the point.
This parcours was great for Quintana. Nibali had the cobbles and descents to make up time.
The addition of long flat ITT would have been better for Froome, and a very hilly 25-30km ITT for Contador. But that would have decreased Quintana's chances.
So overall I think this parcours (although I don't think it is a good parcours) gave them all a pretty fair chance.

Ok, i see what you mean then.

I dont know if its an equal chance per se, but we can agree that its the best that Quintana could have hoped for, and i am not sure that is the same for other high-profile names.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Personally I would have only four MTFs, and spread them around as much as possible to stop the usual thing of the last week being mountain-dominant but everyone being too tired to take full advantage of it, and over 120km of TTing.

120km of ITTing combined with only 4 MTFs would mean the likelihood of winning would be 80% for Froome, 8% Contador, 8% Nibali and 4% Quintana. Not an exactly equal chance

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Personally I would have only four MTFs, and spread them around as much as possible to stop the usual thing of the last week being mountain-dominant but everyone being too tired to take full advantage of it, and over 120km of TTing.

120km of ITTing combined with only 4 MTFs would mean the likelihood of winning would be 80% for Froome, 8% Contador, 8% Nibali and 4% Quintana. Not an exactly equal chance

Even Rohan Dennis would have a higher chance of winning than Quintana if that happened (and Contador is not a lot worse than Froome at TTs)

 

[LaFlorecita]

In hindsight I think this year's parcours gave them all an equal chance.

I dont think so.

With only 14km of ITT, it was a golden chance for a climber like Quintana.
And Movistar threw it away.

That's the point.
This parcours was great for Quintana. Nibali had the cobbles and descents to make up time.
The addition of long flat ITT would have been better for Froome, and a very hilly 25-30km ITT for Contador. But that would have decreased Quintana's chances.
So overall I think this parcours (although I don't think it is a good parcours) gave them all a pretty fair chance.

Ok, i see what you mean then.

I dont know if its an equal chance per se, but we can agree that its the best that Quintana could have hoped for, and i am not sure that is the same for other high-profile names.

I agree the parcours could have been better for the other 3, but after all we're looking for the parcours that gives them all an equal chance

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

No cobbles, more hilly ardennes stages (for nibali), punchy finishes for Contador, 80 km of tt (one hilly, one flat) and one stage with 3 passes over 2200 m with arrival at the galibier, bonette...

You do realize Froome is better at those than Contador, right?

This is hangover from "Froome is terrible bike-handler" syndrome.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Personally I would have only four MTFs, and spread them around as much as possible to stop the usual thing of the last week being mountain-dominant but everyone being too tired to take full advantage of it, and over 120km of TTing.

120km of ITTing combined with only 4 MTFs would mean the likelihood of winning would be 80% for Froome, 8% Contador, 8% Nibali and 4% Quintana. Not an exactly equal chance

Sorry I completely lost sight of the purpose of the OP. I think Contador and Froome would have an equal chance under those rules anyway.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Just force Froome to ride with Barguil on every descent - it would become equal very quickly

 

[Campervan man]

A MTT of decent length 8-10km's. 4 MTF's with 2 beastly days of climbing in different mountain ranges. The Tour not to travel again stay French for '16. Some more sprint stages in the first week again but with a hilly stage or 2. No TTT at all. And a big ish! ITT as stage 20 around 30-45km with a couple of small hills in it not completely flat. No time bonus on MTF either, just times taken. I'd love to see some new or unused climbs, forget Galibier, ADH, Ventoux. Time for Mont du chat!