TDF 2016 Green Jersey

[SKSemtex]

After winning 4 green jerseys in the row Sagan is ready to get closer to Zabel ´s record (6 wins). Will he make it or will duo Kittel-Richeze spoil the party? Or is there anybody else who can challenge him. ( Bouhanni, Kristoff, Coquard ... ) The main factor can be Contador form and his realistic chance for yellow. Will Sagan have the free role or will he stay with Contador till the end? Can green Jersey be a motivation for Kittel? Probably not. Let’s discuss.

Some betting odds (Paddy power)

Peter Sagan 8/11
Marcel Kittel 4/1
Nacer Bouhanni 14/1
Alexander Kristoff 14/1
Bryan Coquard 18/1
Maximiliano Richeze 300/1 I never bet against Sagan but I could not resist to put 20 EUR

Points classification:
50,30,20,18,16,14,12,10,8,7,6,5, 4,3 ,2 Stage: 1,2,3,4,6,11,14,16,21
30, 25,22,19,17, 15,13,11,9,7,6,5,4,3,2 Stage: 5,7,10,12
20,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7, 6,5,4,3,2,1 Stage: 8,9,15,17,19,2 no chance
20,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6, 5,4,3,2,1 Stage: 13,18 (TT) no chance
20,17,15,13,11,10,9, 8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 Intermediate sprints

ETAPA 1

ETAPA 2

ETAPA 3

ETAPA 4

ETAPA 5

ETAPA 6

ETAPA 10

ETAPA 11

ETAPA 14

ETAPA 16

ETAPA 21

ETAPA 2 LAST KM

ETAPA 4 LAST KM

My „naive“ calculations

Kittel stages 90% : 1,3,11,21 0,9*200 = 180
Kittel or break 50% : 6,14 0,5*100 = 50
Intermediate sprints Kittel 80%: 1,2,3,11,12,21 0,8x120= 96
Kittel: 326


Probably Sagan 70%: 2,4,16 07*150 = 105
Probably Sagan 60%: 5,10, 0,6*60 = 36
Sagan TOP five placement 80%: 1,3,11,21 0,8*20*4 = 64
Intermediate sprints Sagan 80%: 4,5,6,7, 0,8x 80= 64
Intermediate sprints Sagan TOP 5 placement 80%: 1,2,3,11,12,21 0,8 x 15 x6= 72
Sagan 341 points

 

[LaFlorecita]

Pretty sure it will be Sagan again, regardless of Contador's performance.

 

[DFA123]

I think this could be his hardest year yet to win it. If Kittel can win four stages I think that would be enough. Sagan only won it so comfortably last year because of the lack of depth after Greipel, meaning he got loads of second places.

This year, assuming Kittel wins most flat stages, Sagan will have to place well against Greipel, Bouhanni, Matthews, Kristoff and Degenkolb (the latter two should have better form than in the TdF last year). So, some stages where last year he came second, he could end up fourth or fifth this year.

The uphill finishes will also be difficult with riders like Matthews, Alaphillippe, Valverde, GVA, Boasson-Hagen all stage hunting. He might place well a couple of times, but under the new points system it's wins that really count.

 

[jmdirt]

PS has the (unsupported) freedom to go for green, but if circumstances dictate that he has to do some grunt work for AC that could give someone else a chance to nip him.

 

[Isaak-Gabriel]

The green jersey's rule is a bit "anti Sagan" since 2015, imho it's unfair because this penalizes his all-round abilities. Just for that I hope he'll win this classification for the 5th time !

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

I think this could be his hardest year yet to win it. If Kittel can win four stages I think that would be enough. Sagan only won it so comfortably last year because of the lack of depth after Greipel, meaning he got loads of second places.

This year, assuming Kittel wins most flat stages, Sagan will have to place well against Greipel, Bouhanni, Matthews, Kristoff and Degenkolb (the latter two should have better form than in the TdF last year). So, some stages where last year he came second, he could end up fourth or fifth this year.

The uphill finishes will also be difficult with riders like Matthews, Alaphillippe, Valverde, GVA, Boasson-Hagen all stage hunting. He might place well a couple of times, but under the new points system it's wins that really count.

I had the same opinion before I made all calculation. But the depth of competition does not have such a impact . Sagan can easily finish TOP 7 (avarage 4 the place ) in stages where Kittel wins. Difference is only 8 points.

Sagan probably can lose only if Etixx will pick up the most of "Sagans" points either from break or beating him fair and squere by Richese, Trentin ... and Kittel is willing to go for it at all.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

PS has the (unsupported) freedom to go for green, but if circumstances dictate that he has to do some grunt work for AC that could give someone else a chance to nip him.

I don't think Sagan will be working for Contador unless it does absolutely no harm to his own ambitions. He's the star draw of the team and the World Champion; I doubt he's going to be sacrificing his chances on one of the flatter stages to help a guy who is a distant 3rd favourite for the GC. Especially as this may well be pretty much the last race that they are on the same team.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think this could be his hardest year yet to win it. If Kittel can win four stages I think that would be enough. Sagan only won it so comfortably last year because of the lack of depth after Greipel, meaning he got loads of second places.

This year, assuming Kittel wins most flat stages, Sagan will have to place well against Greipel, Bouhanni, Matthews, Kristoff and Degenkolb (the latter two should have better form than in the TdF last year). So, some stages where last year he came second, he could end up fourth or fifth this year.

The uphill finishes will also be difficult with riders like Matthews, Alaphillippe, Valverde, GVA, Boasson-Hagen all stage hunting. He might place well a couple of times, but under the new points system it's wins that really count.

I had the same opinion before I made all calculation. But the depth of competition does not have such a impact . Sagan can easily finish TOP 7 (avarage 4 the place ) in stages where Kittel wins. Difference is only 8 points.

Sagan probably can lose only if Etixx will pick up the most of "Sagans" points either from break or beating him fair and squere by Richese, Trentin ... and Kittel is willing to go for it at all.

Yeah, Sagan is definitely still strong favourite, but I think he will at least have a battle on his hands this year. If Kittel can make it to the end of a couple of lumpy stages and pick up some points it could really be interesting.

I think the winner will get less than 300 points this year though; there are more high quality riders to share the points aound than previously. Especially if Kistoff, Matthews and Greipel target the green jersey as well and seriously contest all the intermediates.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Sagan will definitely have the freedom to go for the Green jersey. Sagan doing well - winning a few stages and ending up in Green - is probably worth almost as much as Contador winning the Tour.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Sagan will definitely have the freedom to go for the Green jersey. Sagan doing well - winning a few stages and ending up in Green - is probably worth almost as much as Contador winning the Tour.

And much more likely.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Sagan will definitely have the freedom to go for the Green jersey. Sagan doing well - winning a few stages and ending up in Green - is probably worth almost as much as Contador winning the Tour.

And much more likely.

That is BS. Contador winning the Tour is much much bigger. Especially for leaving Tinkoff. Letś be honest who cares about the Green jersey. Probably winning 4 stages and green can come close, but it is only fantasy.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Hard to see past Sagan still.

Kittel needs to be 100% winning in the stages he can challenge for to make it close.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Sagan will definitely have the freedom to go for the Green jersey. Sagan doing well - winning a few stages and ending up in Green - is probably worth almost as much as Contador winning the Tour.

And much more likely.

That is BS. Contador winning the Tour is much much bigger. Especially for leaving Tinkoff. Letś be honest who cares about the Green jersey. Probably winning 4 stages and green can come close, but it is only fantasy.

The point is though that it's not very likely that Contador will win. On the other hand, it's very likely that Sagan will win green, win a stage or two and be a very high profile, successful presence in the race.

Why would you sacrifice that to give a slight boost to Contador's outside chance at winning. If, for example, Contador gets caught on the wrong side of a cross wind split in the first week, and Sagan is in a leading group of 30 riders, would you pull Sagan back to help Contador? It would be an outrageous decision if so.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Sagan will definitely have the freedom to go for the Green jersey. Sagan doing well - winning a few stages and ending up in Green - is probably worth almost as much as Contador winning the Tour.

And much more likely.

That is BS. Contador winning the Tour is much much bigger. Especially for leaving Tinkoff. Letś be honest who cares about the Green jersey. Probably winning 4 stages and green can come close, but it is only fantasy.

The point is though that it's not very likely that Contador will win. On the other hand, it's very likely that Sagan will win green, win a stage or two and be a very high profile, successful presence in the race.

Why would you sacrifice that to give a slight boost to Contador's outside chance at winning. If, for example, Contador gets caught on the wrong side of a cross wind split in the first week, and Sagan is in a leading group of 30 riders, would you pull Sagan back to help Contador? It would be an outrageous decision if so.

Because Tinkoff does not need the tv time, does not need one or two stages , successful presence. He needs the TDF trophy in his office. Beeing him I would sacrifice everything and everybody in team. It is last shot.

 

[SeriousSam]

Yeah, From Tinkoff's perspective, it really does make sense to ruin Sagan's Tour if it causes Contador a 5 second gain. A small increase in the chance to win the Tour, starting from a good chance to win the Tour, must be worth much more to Oleg than the odd stage victory or the glorious green jersey.

It would be outrageous if Sagan isn't asked to do some good slave work for Contador.

 

[BigMac]

Bryan FTW!

 

[Hugo Koblet]

If all Tinkov cares about is that Tour trophy, then yes it makes sense to make Sagan slave for Contador. But from a publicity point of view it really doesn't.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Sagan will definitely have the freedom to go for the Green jersey. Sagan doing well - winning a few stages and ending up in Green - is probably worth almost as much as Contador winning the Tour.

And much more likely.

That is BS. Contador winning the Tour is much much bigger. Especially for leaving Tinkoff. Letś be honest who cares about the Green jersey. Probably winning 4 stages and green can come close, but it is only fantasy.

The point is though that it's not very likely that Contador will win. On the other hand, it's very likely that Sagan will win green, win a stage or two and be a very high profile, successful presence in the race.

Why would you sacrifice that to give a slight boost to Contador's outside chance at winning. If, for example, Contador gets caught on the wrong side of a cross wind split in the first week, and Sagan is in a leading group of 30 riders, would you pull Sagan back to help Contador? It would be an outrageous decision if so.

Because Tinkoff does not need the tv time, does not need one or two stages , successful presence. He needs the TDF trophy in his office. Beeing him I would sacrifice everything and everybody in team. It is last shot.

If the TdF means so much to him, a simpler solution would have been to sign up Foome for €4m a year rather than Sagan.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Sagan all the way.

 

[SKSemtex]

Have you seen the Sky team? It is not only Froome he would need to sign. I do think that Contador is much better option to win the Tour (if you do not have team like Sky) than Froome.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Of course Sagan won't have to "slave" for Contador, he won't have to ride on the front for hours, however, he will be expected to support Contador at dangerous moments in the race and last year we saw Sagan has no issues with that: twice he closed a potentially decisive gap. Once on the echelon stage and once on the cobbles stage.

 

[DFA123]

Have you seen the Sky team? It is not only Froome he would need to sign. I do think that Contador is much better option to win the Tour (if you do not have team like Sky) than Froome.

Sure, i wasn't being too serious. Although perhaps he could have spent the €4m on a few better domestiques

I think Tinkoff does value Sagan highly though. He's probably the most popular rider in the world and their surest bet for doing something in the race. Imagine how humiliated Tinkoff would feel if he sacrificed Sagan and Contador only came 3rd or 4th anyway - so he came away from the Tour with absolutely nothing to show for it.

The limited amount that Sagan could help Contador just isn't worth sacrificing him for. Plus, there's a reasonable chance that Sagan would just ignore team orders anyway - it's not like they would pull him from the race if he just did his own thing.

 

[Netserk]

Full points on stage 2 and a few other stages that suit Sagan fine in the first week, means he'll have an easier time this year than last year, though I still think it'd be great to see him go in multiple breaks to secure it.

 

[Red Rick]

It's kinda ridiculous how hard they're trying to punish Sagan for being so alround. When Cav won 6 stages in 2009 and 5 stages in 2010, him not winning green wasn't a problem.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Full points on stage 2 and a few other stages that suit Sagan fine in the first week, means he'll have an easier time this year than last year, though I still think it'd be great to see him go in multiple breaks to secure it.

Stage 2 is one of those great stages where you get to see Sagan and Valverde go head to head. You get about one of those stages per year and it's like a classics decider between the best cobbled rider and the best ardennes rider.

Someone dull like Gerrans will probably win it now though.