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TdF 2017 stage 8: Dole > Station des Rousses 187,5 km

What scenario/which scenarios is/are most likely?

  • Breakaway contest victory between themselves in a sprint

    Votes: 40 31.0%
  • Solo victory by a breakaway rider

    Votes: 47 36.4%
  • A 10-15 rider group (with the strongest GC riders) contest victory between themselves in a sprint

    Votes: 20 15.5%
  • A solo victory by a top 10-15 rider in the GC

    Votes: 9 7.0%
  • A 20-30 rider group contest victory between themselves in a sprint

    Votes: 6 4.7%
  • Marcel Kittel wins somehow

    Votes: 9 7.0%
  • Ambush a la Fuente De/Formigal succeeds

    Votes: 5 3.9%
  • Ambush a la Fuente De/Formigal fails

    Votes: 5 3.9%
  • None of the above

    Votes: 2 1.6%
  • Vino-option

    Votes: 10 7.8%

  • Total voters
    129
  • Poll closed .
Prudhomme's thoughts about the stage:

“Made in Jura”, that's how this stage could be qualified as it will take place entirely in that area. On this part of the Jura mountain range, the climbs will offer a good opportunity to breakaway riders at their best. Last of the three climbs on the menu, the Côte de la Combe de Laisia Les Molunes, and its summit just 11kms from the finish, will be a perfect scene for the best of them to make a difference.

Profile:

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Classified as a hilly stage, it does contain an 11 km long climb at the end, which (under normal circumstances) tempt a GC man to crawl back to the top spots. However, a harder stage with Grand Colombier and Mont du Chat awaits after this stage. Therefore, it is more likely that the GC men will take this stage somewhat easy. If this turns out to be the case, the most likely outcomes of many possible outcomes, seem to be the first breakaway victory in this years Tour or a minor/reduced field arriving at the finish, battling it out for stage victory.

Station des Rousses has been in the Tour before. In 2010 Sylvain Chavanel won stage 7, which finished on top of the Station des Rousses, after being in a chase group behind the Break of the Day, and overtaking the remnants of the break (Danilo Hondo and Jerôme Pineau).

Last 23 kilometers:

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Weather forecast in the link:


https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/intense-heat-to-scorch-tour-de-france-on-thursday-friday/70002114

Notice that showers and more "seasonable weather" (what does that mean?) are predicted for the next week's racing.


General classification top 10 after stage 7:

1. Christopher FROOME
2. Geraint THOMAS + 12''
3. Fabio ARU + 14''
4. Daniel MARTIN + 25''
5. Richie PORTE + 39''
6. Simon YATES + 43''
7. Romain BARDET + 47''
8. Alberto CONTADOR + 52''
9. Nairo QUINTANA + 54''
10. Rafal MAJKA + 1'01''


Green points classification after stage 7:
1. Marcel KITTEL 197
2. Arnaud DEMARE 182
3. Michael MATTHEWS 123
4. André GREIPEL 110
5. Alexander KRISTOFF 102

Thanks to DFA123 for unknowingly providing two of the scenario's available in the poll (which of you can choose up to 3), but it was a **** good thought :)

EDIT: Poll title changed to reflect the fact, that it is possible to choose up to 3 scenarios.
 
Jul 1, 2017
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Giving the fact that the race on Sunday will be much more difficult i doubt that any of the top 10 riders will try to do something here.
 
Looks like one of the only potential 'ambush' stages on the route to me. If one of the more ambitious long-shot GC contenders like Quintana or Contador wants to win the race, this wouldn't be a bad stage to try something imo. Especially if a lot of riders have eyes on sunday.
 
Re:

yaco said:
Big chance for a breakaway. Have no idea who will win the stage.

Essentially my thoughts.

There's no type of rider who will have a particularly good chance of winning this stage so I don't see any team trying to pull back the break unless a GC favorite is caught in a split peloton. Half the peloton has a chance on this day.