TDF GC - Time to talk

[cycutza]

TDF GC was pushed back a while ago as being too early to talk about...I know some teams are unannounced but surely its time.

Here's my Top 5

1) AC is favorite to me and I can't see how he can finish anything other than in yellow. The parcours suit him, he is in great form and obviously prepped for this. I don't believe the Astana in fighting over GC...mind games to the press and public in my mind. Astana have AC locked in, and even the great LA will ride for him, especially if he announces funding for the team. He then suddenly becomes rider/manager with financial interest.

2) Cadel should pull off another agonising 2nd. Again, great form and if AC has any kind of problems Cadel will attack (And he does seem to be doing this more and more) and take every opportunity in the TT's. The TTT worries me with him but there are too many factors here to decide yet. I think he is in his best form yet to win, but once again...there is one better.

3).......hmmmmm. OKay, I'm going with Sastre, he might even topple Cadel for 2nd as he seemed to be in good building form in the Giro but that might be his downfall. I'm not sure if the Giro was just a lead up ride, he finished 4th ahead of guys that targeted the Giro specifically so that suggests pretty good form...maybe too early!

4) A Schleck. Even with a shocker in stage 5 of the Suisse I have him up high...and would have him number one if the guy could only TT...even being fairly short this year. Maybe next year he can build for this, still very young and very very good.

5) Someone else fill this in for me. I like KK (in good form), CVV (Can he recover from a shocker of a season), Menchov (if he Giro didnt completely bust him), Frank (Quiet achiever and in good form) Schleck....such a hard pick.

Theres also Valverde to be thrown in the mix but even with a great Dauphine and if he's riding....I still can't put him in top 5.

Of course...dare I say LA. As mentioned above, I think he will ride for AC and maybe go for a stage but a coming out of retirement, broken collarbone, strong Giro, 7 time winner, heart of an Ox still will struggle for anything other than 5th to 10th....still not too bad. Theres just too many riders here that have this race as there number one for him to keep up. Everything else aside though, I think its great that he's riding and everyone is talking about him (for good and bad)...what a great character for the sport.

I will post a more determined top 10 just before the start and some stage winners but for now, over to you guys, who have I missed? more dark horses? Bring on 3 weeks of sleep deprivation. What a great time of year!

 

[elapid]

1. Contador
2. Evans
3. A. Schleck
4. Sastre
5. Nibali

 

[BigBoat]

1.) LA
2.) Contra
3.) Dennis Menchov
4.) Levi Leipheimer
5.) Pelizotti

But ya know something... We dont know which of LA's top competitor's the UCI will dump down the toilet...

 

[Kazistuta]

4) A Schleck. Even with a shocker in stage 5 of the Suisse I have him up high...and would have him number one if the guy could only TT. Maybe next year he can build for this, still very young and very very good. He will obviously have a role to play for Sastre and that will tie his hands a bit too but overall I think top 5 is a good place for him.

Well, let's just say the Schlecks don't have a Spaniard to back this year

Sastre will most definitely be there untill the end (and Ventoux), but I'm a bit more cautious with my beliefs in Menchov. A great giro makes him a clear top3 candidate (AC and Evans are the other two obvious choices), but he have shown signs of fatigue during a 3 weeks race before.

Sadly enough there's not many more names to mention, but I agree with Elapid that it's going to be interesting to see Nibali this year. I don't think he strong enough in the mountains yet, though.

 

[cycutza]

Yeah not sure about menchov either and not sure if a great Giro does put him up in the tour...definitely not in yellow anyways.

 

[ExRower]

Contador - can't see anything stopping him, unless LA flicks him or something
Evans - consistent, consistently on the podium at least!
A. Schleck - his time is approaching
Sastre - pretty solid guy. If I were God i'd make him win.

Menchov will be top ten but not anywhere near the podium.

 

[Indurain]

Yellow
1st Andy Schlek all the way. Not much timetrialling this year. Some good climbs. I think he will do it. Riis (Mr.60% man) is a master trainer (pharmasist perhaps).
2nd Armstrong (he will probably get his mate George Bush to find some secret technology/formula that they use on the military to make them faster and stronger. Probably 10 years ahead of the stuff the main peleton can use.
3rd Contador
4th Evans
5th Sastre.

Green
Bennati
Cavendish
Thor
Freire
Chiolek

Polka dot
Schlek

 

[cycutza]

Yellow
1st Andy Schlek all the way. Not much timetrialling this year. Some good climbs. I think he will do it. Riis (Mr.60% man) is a master trainer (pharmasist perhaps).

Would love him to win but any, and I mean any, rides against the clock and he's going to drop time...too much imho against this years competition.

 

[jonjungel]

No one mentions Kreuziger...
He was way better than Nibali throughout last year.

 

[BroDeal]

What I fear will set the sport back immensely:

1) Armstrong
2) Contador
3) Evans

What I think is likely:

1) Contador
2) Evans
3) Kreuziger
4) A. Schelck
5) Armstrong
6) Sastre
7) Vande Velde

 

[anubisza]

Contador,Evans,Sastre,Leipheimer,F Schleck,Armstrong

 

[ambrose]

1st AC
2nd Cadel
3rd Sastre
4th A schleck
5th LA

Being an aussie I obviously want cadel to win, but i think contador has the edge on him (just judging the dauphine) and with the amount of TT decreaing (and AC improvement in the discipline) i don't think cadell will win. However his team is stringer then last year, so i predict that he will remain in 2nd (again). Sastre won't win, he will come into good form, but won't have the same team wich allowed him to win last year. Probably 3rd. Andy schleck should come in 4th, needs alittle more time before hes on top (maybe next year even?) Lance got alot stronger as the giro went on, and he does know how to ride the tour (least he used to)

others to watch-
leipheimer, but he went to hard to early
menchov-peaked about 2 months to early
rogers-won't win, but will shake it up. coming back from two real bad seasons (crash in 07 & epstein bar last year) and has some potential(i'm not biased at all though)
all the italian GC riders-haven't set the world on fire so far this year
CVV-crashed too recently
KK- somewhere around 6 or 7, just don't think hes good enough

 

[ak-zaaf]

1. ac
2. andy schleck
3. gesink
4. kreuziger
5. nibali


the youngsters will take over.

contador is in a league of his own. if la is still able to win i will stop watching cycling in july for the next years ;p

 

[Zoncolan]

1. Contador
2. Evans
3. Menchov
4. Sastre
5. A. Schleck
6. Armstrong
7. Leipheimer
8. F. Schleck
9. Rogers
10.Gesink

 

[Anonymous]

1. Contador
2. Menchov
3. Evans
4. Sastre
5. A. Schleck
6. Armstrong
7. Gesink
8. Kreuziger
9. Rogers
10. Pellizotti

 

[Jasper]

1. Contador
2. Evans
3. Menchov
4. A. Schleck
5. Sastre
6. Armstrong
7. Leipheimer
8. Kreuziger
9. Gesink
10. Monfort

 

[hfer07]

1- Contador (unless the "unexpected" happens)
2- Sastre
3- Menchov
4- A Schleck
5- Evans

 

[Angliru]

Contador's New Restraint/Maturity

The Dauphine is one of the first races I've seen where Contador showed maturity and discipline in his racing when it was necessary and part of his predetermined goals. Usually if he enters a stage race he is there to win. Now maybe his form was such that he just didn't have it in him to try to make up what time he lost in the ITT, but the fact that he showed restraint is a big plus IMO and will serve him well in the Tour and the future. Compare this to the 2007 Tour where I think a result of the multiple attacks he exchanged in the mountains with Rassmussen, he began to falter in the last mountainous summit finish, losing time to Rassmussen, and even to seconds to Leipheimer.

Armstrong's continued progression of form in the Giro was impressive and with another month to prepare, train and lose the necessary pounds he's put on in his retirement I see him as Contador's primary threat, even more so than Evans due in part to the TTT that I think will put Evans at a disadvantage to Armstrong and Contador. I don't see Evans and S/L able to control Contador in the mountains and Evans gains in the ITT's won't be enough to offset the time he will lose in the mountains. I think Armstrong will be more than a match for Evans in the mountains and ITT's. I'm personally hoping that he stumbles and is humbled by his fall in stature amongst those that he used to dominate but I don't think that will happen this year.

1. Contador
2. Armstrong
3. Evans
4. Sastre
5. Menchov
6. Andy Schleck
7. Gesink
8. Frank Schleck
9. Kreuziger
10. Rogers

 

[Bala Verde]

...
1. Contador
2. Armstrong
3. Evans
4. Sastre
5. Menchov
6. Andy Schleck
7. Gesink
8. Frank Schleck
9. Kreuziger
10. Rogers

Interesting analysis re Contador. I have been thinking along the same lines, namely that Contador has that urge to prove himself perhaps a little too often, when conserving energy is more opportune.

It seems as if he was following the more prudent approach in the DL, which exudes control and discipline. He must have learned fro the P-N bonk as well, in that his energy reserves aren't limitless and inexhaustible. The tour is 3 weeks, and as you mentioned, he was showing signs of weaknesses in the last week when Rasmussen dropped him on the climb, and he had to rely on LL's pacemaking to limit the time loss. After that stage, the Tour was basically decided.

Obviously, both of them had been attacking and counter attacking each other relentlessy in the mountains which would take its toll on any rider, but instead of aggressively countering each and every move, I think he would do a lot better if he followed the strategy he used in the Giro he won. He seemed to be cool and in control, never nervous or anxious when someone attacked him. He appeared to be following his HR monitor instead of his heart...

Obviously, he will launch a fierce attack, a short burst of energy, an acceleration in the last 1-2K, twice, or three times to try gain time, 30s here 20s there. However, if he wants to win, I think he should refrain from soloing to victory and put in one big effort on a big climb (unless it's his last chance if he is behind), because it could get to him later on in the TdF. "Steady, controlled and constant" is the motto.

1) Contador
2) Evans 0-1m
3) Sastre 0-1m
4) Menchov 1-2.5m
5) Vandevelde (?) 2.5-3.5m
6) Kloden 2.5-3.5m
7) Schleck A. 3-4m
8) Rogers >7m
9) Gesink >7m
10) Armstrong >7m

Mind you, almost all my predictions are miles off

 

[Jasper]

It seems like Fränk Schleck might have to pass up on the Tour. He lost 5 minutes yesterday on the last climb in the Tour of Switzerland stage 7, according to himself because of a nagging knee pain that he has been suffering from since around april. The team doctors can't seem to figure out what is wrong exactly, and Schleck himself is starting to fear he might not be able to start in Monaco.

That certainly would complicate matters for Saxo. It would mean the Schlecklet is the only GC contender for the team, and all pressure and attention will be on him. And it remains to be seen how he can handle it all without his brother around to support him.

 

[laurentiu46]

Some dark horses? Vladimir Efimkin and Stijn Devolder could make their way into the top 10.
The russian was 11th last year when he shared the leadership with Valjavec.
He looked very good on the Alpe,and lost his top 10 place after the TT.
Good form shown at the Dauphine this year.
Devolder peaked too early in 2008,now it's time to get a good GC placing.

So...
1.Contador
2.Evans
3.Menchov
4.Armstrong
5.A Schleck
6.Sastre
7.Kirchen
8.Devolder
9.Leipheimer
10.Efimkin

I dont't know if Nibali or Kreuziger will be able to crack the top 10. They will be just around the corner.

 

[Pietro]

TDF GC was pushed back a while ago as being too early to talk about...I know some teams are unannounced but surely its time.

Here's my Top 5

1) AC is favorite to me and I can't see how he can finish anything other than in yellow. The parcours suit him, he is in great form and obviously prepped for this. I don't believe the Astana in fighting over GC...mind games to the press and public in my mind. Astana have AC locked in, and even the great LA will ride for him, especially if he announces funding for the team. He then suddenly becomes rider/manager with financial interest.

2) Cadel should pull off another agonising 2nd. Again, great form and if AC has any kind of problems Cadel will attack (And he does seem to be doing this more and more) and take every opportunity in the TT's. The TTT worries me with him but there are too many factors here to decide yet. I think he is in his best form yet to win, but once again...there is one better.

3).......hmmmmm. OKay, I'm going with Sastre, he might even topple Cadel for 2nd as he seemed to be in good building form in the Giro but that might be his downfall. I'm not sure if the Giro was just a lead up ride, he finished 4th ahead of guys that targeted the Giro specifically so that suggests pretty good form...maybe too early!

4) A Schleck. Even with a shocker in stage 5 of the Suisse I have him up high...and would have him number one if the guy could only TT. Maybe next year he can build for this, still very young and very very good. He will obviously have a role to play for Sastre and that will tie his hands a bit too but overall I think top 5 is a good place for him.

5) Someone else fill this in for me. I like KK (in good form), CVV (Can he recover from a shocker of a season), Menchov (if he Giro didnt completely bust him), Frank (Quiet achiever and in good form) Schleck....such a hard pick.

Theres also Valverde to be thrown in the mix but even with a great Dauphine and if he's riding....I still can't put him in top 5.

Of course...dare I say LA. As mentioned above, I think he will ride for AC and maybe go for a stage but a coming out of retirement, broken collarbone, strong Giro, 7 time winner, heart of an Ox still will struggle for anything other than 5th to 10th....still not too bad. Theres just too many riders here that have this race as there number one for him to keep up. Everything else aside though, I think its great that he's riding and everyone is talking about him (for good and bad)...what a great character for the sport.

I will post a more determined top 10 just before the start and some stage winners but for now, over to you guys, who have I missed? more dark horses? Bring on 3 weeks of sleep deprivation. What a great time of year!

Why Astana isn't going to do well.

"The Tour de France starts July 4 in Monaco and it will be Armstrong's first time in the race since he won his seventh straight title in 2005.

"He will ride the Tour like no one else because he has the experience of seven Tour de France wins. He will go like a beast."

The team has three classification riders with Armstrong, 2007 winner Alberto Contador and Levi Leipheimer. Armstrong and Contador have only raced together once this year, the 160 kilometres prior to Armstrong's crash in Castilla y León. The lack of experience together and strong individual desires to win may ruin the team's chances.

"He won't have problems with Contador and Leipheimer because the team is guided by the best, Johan Bruyneel. Look at all the Giro, Tour and Vueltas he has won over the years."

Contador may have something to say about this....besides, there are already rumors that Contador is leaving and going to an American team in 2010....he has nothing to lose.

 

[Jasper]

What about Karpets? Raspoetin seems to have found his old form again in Switzerland, after a rather anonymous 2008. Maybe not for a top 5 spot, but a consistent rider with a good TT like him should be able to crack a top 10 spot, no? And he'll most likely be Katusha's only leader.

 

[cycutza]

I still think Astana have it and don't believe there are any problems in the team. Leipheimer will work for LA and AC and LA will work for AC. Maybe LA will try for a stage win but unless AC falls down a cliff then the captain is set.

Interesting the news about Frank Schleck....gives Andy a much better look in to take it too the top 3. O grady will have to be in top form though if he has any chance.

 

[tifosa]

1 - Menchov
2 - Kreuziger
3 - Gesinck
4 - Rogers
5 - Sastre
6 - Evans
7 - Vandelvelde
8 - A. Schleck
9 - Leipheimer
10 - Nibali

Contador, Kloden, and Armstrong will not finish the Tour (may not even start the Tour). Just a gut feeling, but I'm going with it.
Hell, it's le Tour! Anything can happen.