TdF Sports Betting

[ThorFolerSegSterkIDagDu]

Hello,

I am looking to make som serious money betting on Tour results this summer, and i am seeking your advice as to what bets would be good to place!

Firslty, Winner of Polka Dot jersey, has any rider stated that they are targeting this jersey?

Martinez, E 9.00
Cunego, D 13.00
Contador, A 15.00
Gadret, J 17.00
Lloyd, M 19.00
Soler, M 26.00
Txurruka, A 26.00
Gesink, R 26.00
Schleck, A 26.00
Basso, I 26.00

Other suggestions would of course be appreciated!

Green, do you reckon Cav is playable? He didnt win it last year even with 6 stage wins, Hushovd very experienced...Boasson at 17.00 is a good bet as well.

Cavendish, M 2.10
Hushovd, T 7.00
Farrar, T 7.00
Freire, O 15.00
Boasson Hagen, E 17.00
Ciolek, G 26.00

Would appreciate interesting and good advice

 

[Cobblestones]

Obviously you won't make serious money by betting on Cav at 2.1. So you might just as well put you money on Thor. Honestly, I don't think Cav will dominate in the same way as he did last year and even then Thor won it. So Thor might actually be the better bet anyway. For the KoM, I don't know. You might want to see which team targets the small cat 4 climbs in the first stages to get a better idea (if you can wait that long to place your bet).

ETA: don't bet on GC guys to win the KoM. They won't be allowed to escape and clean the early points in a stage. So, no Schleck, Bertie, Basso and possibly Gesink unless they lose very serious time (20 min or more) in the first stages.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Don't waste your money on Mauricio Soler - he's not going. 100 years of the Pyrenées will probably mean Euskaltel will be active throughout those stages. As mentioned, GC candidates won't be out there collecting the points early in the stage, but with cat.2, cat.1 and HC climbs offering double points when they're the last climb of the day (even if they're 70km from the end, like the Tarbes stage last year) they're still possibilities, as shown by Bernard Kohl (3rd in 2008), Michael Rasmussen (7th in 2005) and Santiago Botero (7th in 2000). I can guarantee you one thing though; the rider who wins the KOM will be in the breakaway on stage 16.

 

[maltiv]

I'd put my money on Tyler Farrar for green. Cav out of shape, Thor has been sprinting poorly all season, EBH will have to work for Wiggins and probably isn't consistent enough anyway.

 

[ak-zaaf]

I'd pick a guy like Txurruka for KOM and EBH for green. The other odds aren't good enough.

 

[BroDeal]

I would split my money and bet on both Farrar and Hushovd for the green over a single bet on Cav. You could even throw a little EBH's way to further hedge your bet.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

When it comes to games of chance, I never fail to take Wesley Snipes' sage advice and ALWAYS bet on black. I suppose this means Wigans.

 

[ingsve]

KOM is always a big crap shoot. It's basically impossible to know what rider will eventually go for the long breaks to get it so if I were to bet then I would throw some money at one of the GC favourites just on the off chance that one of them gets enough points to take it while not focusing on it completely. Perhaps not Contador but somone who once they get it would still be interested of keeping it by sprinting a little when the favourites pass a mountain. Perhaps Fränk Schleck or Ivan Basso would be my bet.

 

[ttrider]

Must bet on green jersey as cavendish skews the odds really well this makes everyone bar him a really good price, id go for Boassen Hagen and Friere @ 15 and 17
both pritty big wins

POlka dot is a massive win for just about anyone Cunego would be good but hes comparatively short, i mean lets face it he isnt gona place in GC
Go for lots of really hedged bets! With the reward its a high chance of at least a small win

 

[Andrichuk]

I'd put my money on Tyler Farrar for green. Cav out of shape, Thor has been sprinting poorly all season, EBH will have to work for Wiggins and probably isn't consistent enough anyway.

He hasn't had a chance to sprint while in form all season. Did you read the race report for the National road race he just won? He dropped EBH and solo bridged to the lead group and when he finally bridged to them he just road past them.

Not to mention at TdS he was riding with the pack, not the sprinters. If he can improve his form a bit more and hold it, he will have a fantastic tour.

 

[maltiv]

He hasn't had a chance to sprint while in form all season. Did you read the race report for the National road race he just won? He dropped EBH and solo bridged to the lead group and when he finally bridged to them he just road past them.

Not to mention at TdS he was riding with the pack, not the sprinters. If he can improve his form a bit more and hold it, he will have a fantastic tour.

He's had lots of chances to sprint, but you're right, he hasn't been in form all season except from P-R. And I'm not worried about his form in front of TDF, I'm worried about his sprinting, which he hasn't been able to practice much after the collarbone injury. Ultimately, his best sprint result this year is a 6th in M-SR...

The fact that he dropped EBH on a climb clearly shows that he's in shape, but more importantly it's a really bad sign for Edvald and I still don't really understand how that happened.

 

[RedZone]

Interesting Bets here (bolded what i think is best value)

Head to Heads:
F. Schleck $1.65 vs A. Vinokourov $2.15

L. Armstrong $1.67 vs B. Wiggins $2.10

I. Basso $1.67 vs R. Gesink $2.10

C. Evans $1.62 vs D. Menchov $2.20

C. Evans $1.50 vs M. Rogers $2.45

L. Gerdemenn $1.80 vs J. Van Den Broeck $1.95

M. Rogers $2.60 vs S. Sanchez $1.45

Aussie stage wins under 1.5 @ $1.62

Cavendish stage wins over 3.5 @ $1.80

Contador under 2.5 stage wins @ $2.00

 

[ingsve]

The fact that he dropped EBH on a climb clearly shows that he's in shape, but more importantly it's a really bad sign for Edvald and I still don't really understand how that happened.

Well, it was a really though course and since Hushovd is alot older and thus thougher he has the advantage there. EBH said himself that he had a bad day and that it isn't an indication of his overall condition.

 

[mowie133]

Interesting Bets here (bolded what i think is best value)

Head to Heads:
F. Schleck $1.65 vs A. Vinokourov $2.15

L. Armstrong $1.67 vs B. Wiggins $2.10

I. Basso $1.67 vs R. Gesink $2.10

C. Evans $1.62 vs D. Menchov $2.20

C. Evans $1.50 vs M. Rogers $2.45

L. Gerdemenn $1.80 vs J. Van Den Broeck $1.95

M. Rogers $2.60 vs S. Sanchez $1.45

Aussie stage wins under 1.5 @ $1.62

Cavendish stage wins over 3.5 @ $1.80

Contador under 2.5 stage wins @ $2.00

the aussie stage wins is the one i'm loading up on..an frank to beat vino those the one's that are 100% an throw in cav for green at 2.00 bucks

 

[ingsve]

Interesting Bets here (bolded what i think is best value)

Head to Heads:
F. Schleck $1.65 vs A. Vinokourov $2.15

L. Armstrong $1.67 vs B. Wiggins $2.10

I. Basso $1.67 vs R. Gesink $2.10

C. Evans $1.62 vs D. Menchov $2.20

C. Evans $1.50 vs M. Rogers $2.45

L. Gerdemenn $1.80 vs J. Van Den Broeck $1.95

M. Rogers $2.60 vs S. Sanchez $1.45

Aussie stage wins under 1.5 @ $1.62

Cavendish stage wins over 3.5 @ $1.80

Contador under 2.5 stage wins @ $2.00

I would personally reverse a couple of those evaluations.

van den Broeck at 1.95 over Gerdeman is a very good price. I can't see Gerdeman beating vdB.

I'm not too sure about what Basso can possibly do so Gesink at 2.10 seems like a good deal.

 

[RedZone]

I would personally reverse a couple of those evaluations.

van den Broeck at 1.95 over Gerdeman is a very good price. I can't see Gerdeman beating vdB.

I'm not too sure about what Basso can possibly do so Gesink at 2.10 seems like a good deal.

You are right about the Gerdemann VdB one, kinda overlooked it. Still unsure about what exactly VdB can do in a 3 week tour though.

I still think Basso will beat Gesink handily.

 

[RedZone]

Is it just me or is sammy sanchez a good bet here?

Highest Finish
L. Armstrong $2.15
B. Wiggins $3.75
C. Evans $4.50
I. Basso $5.00
S Sanchez $14.00

 

[mowie133]

Is it just me or is sammy sanchez a good bet here?

Highest Finish
L. Armstrong $2.15
B. Wiggins $3.75
C. Evans $4.50
I. Basso $5.00
S Sanchez $14.00

just you armstrongs team is strong so i can't see it happening

 

[Punter]

Hi from South Africa guys.

I love punting on sport and while I am a rugby and golf man the Tour de France is the highlight of my year (although in 2010 I have to give the World Cup the edge)

I look forward to following and hopefully contributing to this thread and my experience of the Tour is to bet more to increase enjoyment rather than to lump big bets on as you can easily be done by a disqualification, crash, mechanical, bad day or even team orders.

I note with interest comments around Basso - I have him lined up for a decent Tour and I see there is 4/1 that he wins a stage.

Anyone else think that is decent value? There are a couple of finishes that should suit him and he may not be as marked as some of the others?

 

[ThorFolerSegSterkIDagDu]

Interesting Bets here (bolded what i think is best value)

Head to Heads:
F. Schleck $1.65 vs A. Vinokourov $2.15

L. Armstrong $1.67 vs B. Wiggins $2.10

I. Basso $1.67 vs R. Gesink $2.10

C. Evans $1.62 vs D. Menchov $2.20

C. Evans $1.50 vs M. Rogers $2.45

L. Gerdemenn $1.80 vs J. Van Den Broeck $1.95

M. Rogers $2.60 vs S. Sanchez $1.45

Aussie stage wins under 1.5 @ $1.62

Cavendish stage wins over 3.5 @ $1.80

Contador under 2.5 stage wins @ $2.00

Please tell me from which site you got these plays? Really good odds i think..

 

[The Hitch]

Hi from South Africa guys.

I love punting on sport and while I am a rugby and golf man the Tour de France is the highlight of my year (although in 2010 I have to give the World Cup the edge)

I look forward to following and hopefully contributing to this thread and my experience of the Tour is to bet more to increase enjoyment rather than to lump big bets on as you can easily be done by a disqualification, crash, mechanical, bad day or even team orders.

I note with interest comments around Basso - I have him lined up for a decent Tour and I see there is 4/1 that he wins a stage.

Anyone else think that is decent value? There are a couple of finishes that should suit him and he may not be as marked as some of the others?

Basso is not going to win anything other than a mountain stage. There are 6 mountain stages. Contador is going to win at least 1 if not 2 of those and a breakaway will probably get at least 2 of these as well. That leaves you with at most 2 or 3 mountain stages, and there are a hell of a lot of good climbers there who are likely to go for it. So i dont expect basso to get a stage but its your choice.

and as long as he remains in contention its not like he will be allowed to go for it.

 

[flyor64]

<snip>...
Green, do you reckon Cav is playable? He didnt win it last year even with 6 stage wins, Hushovd very experienced...Boasson at 17.00 is a good bet as well.

Cavendish, M 2.10
Hushovd, T 7.00
Farrar, T 7.00
Freire, O 15.00
Boasson Hagen, E 17.00
Ciolek, G 26.00

Would appreciate interesting and good advice

I have to ask...is your username refering to Thor the God, or Thor the Cyclist "feeling strong"?


If it's the latter, aren't you obliged to go with Thor for the green at 7.00???

 

[mowie133]

Please tell me from which site you got these plays? Really good odds i think..

it's tab in ozzz

 

[ttrider]

Im a Basso fan and think he will do well but what ever you do...
dont bet on him winning a stage!
He only has a few opportunities and his sprint finish does not merit that name, so your betting on him dropping Contador et al and catching a breakaway in the stage that he does, seriously i would only take Basso to win a stage at 100 to 1

 

[ThorFolerSegSterkIDagDu]

I have to ask...is your username refering to Thor the God, or Thor the Cyclist "feeling strong"?


If it's the latter, aren't you obliged to go with Thor for the green at 7.00???

Haha my nickname refers to a norwegian reporter who has a close relationship with Thor who always before every sprint stage says he spoke to thor and that he apparantly is "Feeling very strong today". But i dont feel obliged to bet for him, even if he at 7.00 is a very good shot. Because you know he is feeling very strong at the moment!