TDF Sprints & Green Jersey

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Who will win the sprints, and who will win the jersey?

Lots of nice flat stages this year. Those which looked nailed on for a sprint are...

Stage 1 -

Stage 5 -

Stage 6 -

Stage 7 -

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Stage 10 -

Stage 12 -

Stage 13 -

Stage 14 -

(nowhere near enough climbing in the last 50km for me to put it in the next category)

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Stage 21 -

And then a couple of stages which may have sprints, but with potential for the bunch to be more or less reduced -

Stage 2 -

Stage 3 -

And finally, some stages which are unlikely to be bunch sprints, but Sagan will be looking to make up points for the Green jersey -

Depends how it's raced - breakaway pretty likely here unless Sagan is empty handed at this stage and Cannondale go 100% for it.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Stage 16 -

Again depends how it's raced - pretty good chance Sagan is dropped given the likelyhood of full GC pace on the climb, but worth noting just in case.

Other than stage finishes, also worth reviewing the intermediate locations. The ones which look challenging for the non-Sagan sprinters to reach in the main peloton would be stage 9, 18, 19(depending on pace) and 20(depending on pace).

The number of pure sprints this year, the relative lack of small punchy finishes, and the low number of awkward intermediate locations mean this should be much harder for Sagan to win this year, and he'll certainly need to place very well in the flat sprints to be close.

 

[Gloin22]

Sagan's just too good for everyone imo, no matter what support Cav will get, he will not get any points on stages Sagan will get plenty.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Sagan's just too good for everyone imo, no matter what support Cav will get, he will not get any points on stages Sagan will get plenty.

How many stages will Sagan pick up a 30 point advantage on though?

The winner on a flat stage gets 23 points more than 5th place.

Assuming neither of them have bad luck, I can see 8 stages I'd expect Cav to sprint for the win, and 4 where Sagan will and Cav is less likely. Given the 4 for Sagan will all be 30 pointers, he's going to need to average 3rd place in the flat sprints if we assume they each win the aforementioned stages. Seems pretty unlikely to me with Griepel, Kittel and others around.

Quick reminder of scoring system -

• pour les étapes en ligne dites « de plat »
(art. 22-coeff. 1) : 45-35-30-26-22-20-18-16-
14-12-10-8-6-4-2 points pour les 15 premiers
coureurs classés ;
• pour les étapes en ligne dites de « parcours
accidenté» (art. 22-coeff. 2 et 3) : 30-25-22-
19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2 points aux 15
premiers coureurs classés ;
• pour les étapes en ligne dites de « haute montagne » (art. 22-coeff. 4 et 5) : 20-17-
15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points aux 15
premiers coureurs classés ;
• pour le Prologue et les étapes en C.l.m.
«individuel» (art.22-coeff. 6) : 20-17-15-13-11-
10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points aux 15 premiers
coureurs classés ;
• pour chaque sprint intermédiaire, les
15 premiers coureurs classés reçoivent
respectivement : 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-
5-4-3-2-1 points

This year they are bizzarely claiming only 7 flat stages in the route, so safe to say anything with the slightly hint of difficulty will be 30 points or less.

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

Sagan's main problem is that the stages in which he has the best chance of scoring heavily over Cavendish are the stages which look most likely to be won by a breakaway. Unlike last year there are no flattish stages with a punchy finish. Are Cannondale going to have a team strong enough to control the breakaway on these stages? Of course, Sagan could just go in the breakaway himself.

The route does look like it's been designed for Cavendish though, a couple of those flat stages should have uphill finishes to at least give a bit of variety.

 

[puffin]

The sprints should be very competitive this year with Cav, Greipel, Sagan and Kittel all with dedicated teams (I think). I'm a big Cavendish fan but he wont win all the bunch sprints against the above. If anyone really chases the intermediate sprints they will struggle at the finish so the tactics for the different riders are not obvious.

After last year I thought Sagan would own the Green Jersey for 5-10 years but Cav (and possibly Greipel) probably wont ever have a better chance. I think Cav will do it

 

[Afrank]

It will be a good battle for green this year I think, multiple sprint stages and multiple top sprinters will see them all trying to win it. I think Cav will probably take it, but I expect Sagan will make him have to really earn it and give him a good fight for it.

 

[forkboy84]

My big, bold prediction is that Sagan will win the green jersey, & Cavendish will win more than 1 stage, with on of them being the sprint down the Champs Elysees

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

How is it possible to have a 3 week stage race, where there's 13 stages that can end a bunch sprint. Damn.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

How is it possible to have a 3 week stage race, where there's 13 stages that can end a bunch sprint. Damn.

Well, it's an awful lot more possible than in a 1 week stage race.

Anyhow, the number is 11, the penultimate stage listed will be very selective, and the last is almost certainly for GC riders, not Sagan.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Still, I prefer the sprinter stages of the giro, where at the end Cav did win, but he had to fight for it.

 

[MatParker117]

Who was the last pure sprinter to lead all three grand tours at least once?

 

[Ruby United]

Who was the last pure sprinter to lead all three grand tours at least once?

Hopefully cav after this year's Tour.

Robbie McEwen came close; he just hasn't had it in the Vuelta.

But I can't find anyone else. I need help with this one.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Kittel beat Greipel again today - definitely seems he'll be Cav's main competition if he can avoid illness this year.

 

[Glocknerkoenig]

Cav is just going to crush everyone. Barring epic ****ups from his leadout train (and the others' lead out train working very well), I see him winning 6 or 7 stages.

...which is just crazy, I cant understand why they would build a tour with that many pan flat stages. Seems like a complete lack of medium mountain / short uphill finishes. I'm going to be there for the last week, which should be interesting, but the majority before that are going to be worth watching for about 15 minutes.

Are there technical sprint finishes? Could be a crash fest.

 

[Poursuivant]

Cav is just going to crush everyone. Barring epic ****ups from his leadout train (and the others' lead out train working very well), I see him winning 6 or 7 stages.

...which is just crazy, I cant understand why they would build a tour with that many pan flat stages. Seems like a complete lack of medium mountain / short uphill finishes. I'm going to be there for the last week, which should be interesting, but the majority before that are going to be worth watching for about 15 minutes.

Are there technical sprint finishes? Could be a crash fest.

Yes thats a good question, do we know if there is any moody twists and turns in the last k or two?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Today Sagan finished 7th in a sprint with the best 3 sprinters missing.

If that happened in the Tour with the others involved, a 10th place finish would give 33 points fewer than the winner, which is more than Sagan would receive for winning a selective stage.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Yes thats a good question, do we know if there is any moody twists and turns in the last k or two?

Even if the stage finishes aren't that technical there are almost always lots of crashes during the 1st half of the Tour as every sprinter wants that win and GC guys are kept near the front. There obviously just isn't the room for everyone near the front.

 

[cineteq]

Sagan or Greipel are the only ones who can take the green jersey.

 

[MatParker117]

Sagan or Greipel are the only ones who can take the green jersey.

All about Cav this year.

 

[SKSemtex]

Missing Oss will be the bigger factor then Cavs speed dominance. Cannondale´s this year lead-out in last kms is pure joke.
I wonder what will be the role of Viviani. Free? Why Cannondale did not test the duo in Swiss?
Sagan needs to be f…g close to podium in Cavs stages. He just can´t make it alone.

 

[nick101]

it'll be close between cav and sagan. cav will will 5 or 6 stages, griepel 1 and sagan 1. judging by sagans climbing, he'll do what hushovd did and pick up intermediate sprints on hillier stages where opqs have little control. just depends on how sagan does on the pure sprinter stages. if he podiums behind cav on most, he'll win, if not third behind cav and griepel for the green jersey

 

[theyoungest]

Today Sagan finished 7th in a sprint with the best 3 sprinters missing.

If that happened in the Tour with the others involved, a 10th place finish would give 33 points fewer than the winner, which is more than Sagan would receive for winning a selective stage.

If Cav started the sprint in the same position as Sagan, he'd have finished 7th as well. So it's not really relevant.