TdF Stage 12 - Fri 16th - Bourg-de-Péage - Mende 210.5km

[Mellow Velo]

TdF Stage 12 - Fri 16th - Bourg-de-Péage - Mende 210.5km

Enough of today, time for tomorrow.

Km 31.0 - Côte de Saint-Barthélémy-le-Plain - 10.7 km climb to 3.1 % - Category 3
Km 59.0 - Col des Nonières (NONIERES) - 5.7 km climb to 3.8 % - Category 3
Km 96.0 - Suc de Montivernoux - 13.7 km climb to 4.4 % - Category 2
Km 133.0 - Côte de la Mouline - 3.9 km climb to 5 % - Category 3
Km 208.5 - Côte de la Croix-Neuve (Montée Laurent Jalabert) - 3.1 km climb to 10.1 % - Category 2

 

[sartoris]

Some of the GC contenders will bonk big time on the last 4 km. That's for sure.

 

[Jamsque]

If he wasn't broken, I'd say this finish looked tailor made for Cuddles.

I don't think we'll see much GC movement, Andy might have a dig to see if Contador is having un jour sans but I doubt he will be so the two will just mark each other.

The stage win could be a breakaway, but if not I think it will go to an Ardennes specialist. The best two in the race (besides Cuddles) are probably Cunego and Ryder Hesjedal.

 

[Angulo]

Konyshev said that Rodriguez is ready to win this last climb. Like he did on Montelupone.

 

[ulrikmm]

I think the finale will be like this:

 

[AtletiSK]

I think now it is clear the TdF is between Alberto and Andy, I think tomorrow we can possibly see some attacks between them, 3 km is long enough to gain couple of seconds, it´s going to be exciting climb

 

[riobonito92]

Breakaway

Then Gesink
Contador & Schleck @ 10 secs
Menchov @ 20
Leipheimer @ 1.00

 

[alberto.legstrong]

is anyone else stoked about this like I am? Or am I an idiot?

 

[palmerq]

I think contador will win this stage tomorrow.... but schleck will be close behind.... either that or a breakaway... but contador has to win a stage sometime.. so I go for him..

Should be a great ending to the stage though.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Maybe a breakaway, but if not, Robert Gesink and Joaquim Rodriguez could win and do some damage on the final climb. Also, someone going for the KOM will go in the break.

 

[Cobblestones]

That nasty little step in the end will make things very interesting.

 

[Thee_chisa]

an interesting last 10 minutes to the stage then

 

[2wheels]

Really been looking forward to this one; it will be fascinating to see who's allowed to go up the road early on. If Saxo soft-pedals it until the last climb, I'd bet on Astana doing the shredding; but the opposite might happen if Saxo and Radioshack pushed the pace earlier on. Either way, it's a good chance we'll see Schleck and Contador head-to-head for the last 3 km. Add in the killer heat and you've got all the makings for some major carnage. Starting to feel sick. . . might not be able to work tomorrow, koff koff.

 

[Dedelou]

Really been looking forward to this one; it will be fascinating to see who's allowed to go up the road early on. If Saxo soft-pedals it until the last climb, I'd bet on Astana doing the shredding; but the opposite might happen if Saxo and Radioshack pushed the pace earlier on. Either way, it's a good chance we'll see Schleck and Contador head-to-head for the last 3 km. Add in the killer heat and you've got all the makings for some major carnage. Starting to feel sick. . . might not be able to work tomorrow, koff koff.

let me see . I can imagine both(alberto and andy) enjoying this little scenario up close : Lance part of a break away that Astana and Saxo allowed earlier is now barely a few dozen of seconds in front of them and the two leaders delight watching Lance go for the stage win. He only need 3 more to tie the badger' record, that is an incentive , no?

 

[Ryaguas]

Jo jo jo... I can see already the fireworks

Winners: Joaquin Rodriguez, Il Principe Cunego or El Pistolero
Darkhorses: Andy, Gesink or Kreuziger

El Pistolero really likes this stage, he won here in La Paris - Nice, but we have to remember that in that time the weather was not pretty hot like this one, actually was barely above 0 degrees... some ppl could say that this climb is not long enough to be THAT selective but a lot of ppl in the peloton is starting to feel cooked and also a lot of them can't manage very well the heat so this climb will be like the Tourmalet for them...

A breakaway??? Nah... Uniballer making a move? will be not successful... Andy trying somethin?? Could be, but this climb has not been very good for him during this year and the year before he has always lost time here so... that could be a pshycologycal factor for him... El Pistolero hammering in this climb? Totally yes... He likes this climb, he want to close the gap against Andy, he has shown that he has legs and what happen the last sunday was a tactical mistake, he has won here... and this climb suits him quite well cuz is steeper but the problem is that is not long enough...

 

[Carl0880]

The last time this race came to Mende was 2005 and a breakaway won about 9 minutes ahead of the field if I recall right (Serrano won the breakaway if I recall right). This was a devastating final climb. There were 4 leaders that came over together, Lance, Basso, Ulrich, and Evans. I recall this easy because Evans sprinted around the 3 of them for something like 7th or 11th place and Lance was annoyed with this.

In Paris-Nice, Contador won the stage and opened about 15-20 seconds gap (HOpefully I am right about these numbers)


I see a breakaway with Charteau and Pineau early. I think this final climb will have Contador, Schleck laying down an attack. I think this short steep climb with favor Gesink and J. Rodriguez. This climb will tell the difference between VDB, Menchov and Levi I think. Pyrennes have a steeper grade then the Alps, so we might see who might claim that 3rd podium spot. IN the past,I would have to favor Levi. LL past has shown he has always rode better in the Pyrennes then the Alps due to his slight frame. If this holds true at 36, we will have to see.

If the break succeeds I expect a spanish climber to win, or Cunego.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I don`t think AC is going to attack. Why would he?
1. A lot of hard stages still to come.
2. He distanced Menchov, Levi and Sanchez and is much better than AS in TT.

I don`t think Rabo boys will attack either because Gesink may drop Menchov and that wouldn`t be so smart.

the only one that might attack is Andy but we`ll probably see some hammering from Navaro all the way up BUT if he drops than it`ll get interesting.

 

[hfer07]

my selection:

AC of course
ASchleck
Joaquin Rodriguez
Damiano Cunego
Egoy Martines
*Evans?

 

[benpounder]

Enough of today, time for tomorrow.
...
Côte de la Croix-Neuve (Montée Laurent Jalabert) - 3.1 km climb to 10.1 % - Category 2

Yeah, 10.1% is steep, but at only 3.1km, I wonder how this ranks as a cat 2. This is classics stuff, and riders like Cancellera, Hushovd, Friere, Boasson-Hagen, etc will fit right in.

 

[Ryaguas]

In Paris-Nice, Contador won the stage and opened about 15-20 seconds gap (HOpefully I am right about these numbers)

The gaps were:

Joaquin Rodriguez 18segs
Il Principe Cunego 21segs
Kreuziger 21segs
LL Sanchez 29segs

 

[ericthesportsman6]

I don`t think AC is going to attack. Why would he?
1. A lot of hard stages still to come.
2. He distanced Menchov, Levi and Sanchez and is much better than AS in TT.

I don`t think Rabo boys will attack either because Gesink may drop Menchov and that wouldn`t be so smart.

the only one that might attack is Andy but we`ll probably see some hammering from Navaro all the way up BUT if he drops than it`ll get interesting.

Your right, that didn't occur to me. Menchov isn't so great on steeper stuff.

 

[The Hitch]

Are these mountains good enough to get jerome pinaut into the break, hence creating some excitement at the start?

I think a breakaway has a good chance to stay away. Whose going to reel them back in.

If not, Im picking Gesink for this. Why not.

 

[The Hitch]

let me see . I can imagine both(alberto and andy) enjoying this little scenario up close : Lance part of a break away that Astana and Saxo allowed earlier is now barely a few dozen of seconds in front of them and the two leaders delight watching Lance go for the stage win. He only need 3 more to tie the badger' record, that is an incentive , no?

He is obviously not getting 3 more stage wins so i dont see why that would be an incentive. If he had been motivated by that he would have gone for dead cert stage wins in 06.

 

[blaxland]

Not much happening today breakaway to get caught with 15-25kms to go.Favourites to mark each other and A.Schleck to gain 5-10 seconds on Contador..Boring,Boring,Boring...Bring on the high Mountains......

 

[The Barb]

I think the break stays away and clearly the best contender in that situation is Cunego. If his efforts of two days ago haven't taken too much out of him then he's the one to beat.