TDF Stage 16 - Tuesday, July 20 2010, Bagnères-de-Luchon - Pau, 196 km

[The Hitch]

TDF Stage 16 - Tuesday, July 20 2010, Bagnères-de-Luchon - Pau, 196 km

The Queen Stage

The last climb may be 70k from the end. But 2 hcs including the Tourmalet and 2 cat 1s is nothing to be sniffed at. At some point over those 4, people will crack.

I think a break will win.

 

[Ferminal]

I've been waiting for this day for 9 months, what an EPIC stage, big attacks and big gaps for all the GC men. Should be thrilling from 0km to 200km.

 

[palmerq]

Why are stages called queen stages.... is it the toughest stage or the one with the most climbs or something? or maybe some other reason......

Anyway if armstrong is going to do anything in this tour then this is probably a good stage for him :S... i think he is better than he has showed so far and if goes hard in an early break he could survive till the end....

So i will predict armstrong will win tomorrow................................... :S

 

[The Hitch]

I've been waiting for this day for 9 months, what an EPIC stage, big attacks and big gaps for all the GC men. Should be thrilling from 0km to 200km.

really?

the 70k flat to the finish doesnt put you off?

 

[hoolaparara]

I've been waiting for this day for 9 months, what an EPIC stage, big attacks and big gaps for all the GC men. Should be thrilling from 0km to 200km.

Bah humbug... this will be Lances last day of failure. I predict a 8-12 man break away with all the mountain jersey pretenders all trying to go with every attack since there are so many points on line and no climb at the end.

Lance will also see this as his win opportunity and will try to get in with another shack rider before he gets shelled on the final climb as he has all race.

None of the polka dot players will win either, but 2-3 other guys will get clear and a sprint (or some sort of attempt at such) finish will end it.


GC riders will dawdle in 10 minutes later at least.

 

[The Hitch]

Woohoo.

Eurosport showing it from the start. If there is one stage you want to see from the start, this is it.

 

[BroDeal]

Wigans to lose contact with the leaders before the summit of the Aubisque and lose massive amounts of time. The same prediction I made for this stage months ago.

 

[Liquigas]

No attacks all the way. Cavendish wins.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

really?

the 70k flat to the finish doesnt put you off?

this.

and the fact that the col d' aubisque (incl. du soulor) is not very steep.

stage looks better reversed

 

[goggalor]

So what idiot put both sprints after all the four climbs?

...

The same idiot who added a 60 km flat after the Aubisque maybe?

EBH to win from the--ahh, who am I kidding...

 

[dgodave]

NOT a big GC day, although it could show up someone having a "bad day".
.

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah, the flat at the end really sucks. All GC guys come in together.

 

[theyoungest]

EBH to win from the--ahh, who am I kidding...

Yes, the new Eddy Merckx can't climb, unfortunately. Still, he could win the stage, from a mass sprint.

Or maybe Riis has a trick up his sleeve. It doesn't even have to be new, the old formula of sending Voigt up the road could work. If Schleck manages to get a gap on this stage, it could grow really big, and he could pretty much seal the victory.

Don't think he will though.

 

[riobonito92]

The same idiot who added a 60 km flat after the Aubisque maybe?

.

I think this is a stroke of genious. It breaks the pattern of "let's all ride together slowly until the last 20 minutes" that you usually get. This is saying "if you are man enough to attack early and hard you could win the TdF".

 

[Jamsque]

I really hope that with the rest day tomorrow, 3rd place so close and Andy Schleck now desperate for we will see GC fireworks on the Tourmalet or the Aubisque, but I don't really see it happening. A day for a big crazy breakaway.

Cunego, maybe? Vino again? Who knows.

 

[hrotha]

If Saxo were as strong as in previous years, they could do some pretty nasty stuff tomorrow. But as it is, I don't think much will happen.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Saxo should send Cancellera and Voigt in the break, and have them drop back towards the top of the tourmalet. Schleck should get some kind of an an advantage over AC, and then link up with the two to gain some serious time. It won't happen, but it would be entertaining.

 

[indurain666]

Queen Stage? for the sprinters or breakaway guys perhaps.

Boring stage...70 k from the top of the Aubisque means none of the big boys is even going to try to do something..tempo all the way to the finish line. 40 guys arrive together perhaps Freire can survive and win it. But it looks like a breakaway. Vino maybe..

Only two more interesting stages: Tourmalet and TT and thats it...now the Vuelta 2010 has an interesting course with 5 moutaintop finishes

 

[killswitch]

The mechanical and what happened afterwards ruined the race IMO. Andy needed a bigger gap before the ITT to have a chance of winning. AS and AC are equally strong in the mountains. Now the only uncertainty is whether Menchov can leapfrog AS and finish second overall.
Hopefully my predictions are wrong though.

 

[roundabout]

I would like to see people from just outside top 10 to attack to improve the GC position.

 

[Sophistic]

lets pray that one of the top~15 goes berserk from the start

 

[kurtinsc]

Someone check my math... but is it correct that there are 90 mountain points on tap for today?

Could someone come out of nowhere relatively speaking to get in play in the polkadot competition? Charteau only has 115 points... technically it might be possible for Paulinho, Garate or Voight to get in the break and walk away with the jersey or nearly having it.

I'm kind of routing for Moreau though.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Can somebody just chop off about 40kms?

I always had this stage marked as the polka dot stage, rather than the queen.
Thursday might be one climb less, but it has the MTF and the gradients.

Yup, Moreau off on his travels, for me, too.

However, I think that today's outcome, may well change the dynamic of the stage. It is possible, it could become a GC battle, if Saxo take the initiative
and do something useful with their roulers.

In anycase, I now have anticipation, where previously, I had the Pau plod.

 

[python]

Yes, the new Eddy Merckx can't climb, unfortunately. Still, he could win the stage, from a mass sprint.

Or maybe Riis has a trick up his sleeve. It doesn't even have to be new, the old formula of sending Voigt up the road could work. If Schleck manages to get a gap on this stage, it could grow really big, and he could pretty much seal the victory.

Don't think he will though.

i too wonder about what riis is cooking for tomorrow

sending voigt is too obvious and i doubt astana will not counter it by sending vino to anchor the move. cancellara will drag his arse up those tops only if he's with sprinters.

my best guess scenario is that riis will allow astana to control the race until
he feels there was a weakness in alberto to explore. if none shown as i expect), he'll save andy's attack for another day.

the logic however does not apply to ee and rabo. they can animate the race.

 

[King Of Molehill]

I pretty much rode this exact stage back in 1993 (Chiappuchi won it) and have to say that the Soulor was not fun especially after the Tormulet. The Aubisque is easy from the top of the Soulor but the run down is nasty. I'd put my money on someone like Luis Leon Sanchez or another breakaway guy with good descending skills.