Team Jumbo-Visma

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Even if somebody like Contador/Froome/Dumoulin was in second, they would have gained 30s to 1 min on Roglic ( Roglic was only 35s from Dumoulin). So Roglic either retains the Jersey or loses Fignon style. This was a 1 in million chance which cannot be planned for. So not RaboFail maybe some minor mistakes which every team does. Even if they were perfect, assuming Roglic did not allow Pogachar to gain time anywhere, he still would have lost(38s stage 8 +10+10=58 s < 59 s trailing).
 
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This end of the GT underperformance is becoming a curse for PR. JV has to take a blame on themselves. They pushed the 3-leaders strategy not to counter Ineos (it was clear in June Ineos was not prepared for a trident this year) but to satisfy the sponsors who wanted a Dutchman to prevail (go and read Dutch forums). This put unnecessary pressure to PR to peak sooner and put the startegy of JV in order first.
 
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With Pogačar this strong is looking difficult for Jumbo to win the Tour but they still have a chance especially if there is a TTT where they can gain around 1 minute on Emirates which would force Pogačar to attack in the mountains and leave him with little margin for error regarding potential crosswind losses.
Of course it would also help if the TT isn't on stage 20 but the Tour organisers seem to like this so I wouldn't have much hope.

In hindsight they are probably regretting having sent Kruijswijk as TDF leader rather than Roglic, last year.
 
With Pogačar this strong is looking difficult for Jumbo to win the Tour but they still have a chance especially if there is a TTT where they can gain around 1 minute on Emirates which would force Pogačar to attack in the mountains and leave him with little margin for error regarding potential crosswind losses.
Of course it would also help if the TT isn't on stage 20 but the Tour organisers seem to like this so I wouldn't have much hope.

In hindsight they are probably regretting having sent Kruijswijk as TDF leader rather than Roglic, last year.
It would also help if the ITT wasn't a 36km MTT with like 1000m vertical gain.
 
It would also help if the ITT wasn't a 36km MTT with like 1000m vertical gain.
Agreed. On top of that next season is a new season. Who knows what sort of different preparations eveyrone will have dependent on covid. However this has been a unique season.

the tour route will probably be more traditional. More first week pitfalls re crashes windy stages etc. Other teams will also be stronger Than this year ie Ineos which may conversely take some pressure off Jumbo.
 
Agreed. On top of that next season is a new season. Who knows what sort of different preparations eveyrone will have dependent on covid. However this has been a unique season.

the tour route will probably be more traditional. More first week pitfalls re crashes windy stages etc. Other teams will also be stronger Than this year ie Ineos which may conversely take some pressure off Jumbo.
I've long given up on expecting balanced Tour routes. The ASO probably consider this route a humoungous success.
 
I've long given up on expecting balanced Tour routes. The ASO probably consider this route a humoungous success.
This is the inevitable problem - because the end is spectacular, the whole shebang that led to this is forgotten about and the lesson learned is either nothing at all or the wrong one.

The 2011 Tour and 2012 Vuelta are, as a result, two of the most damaging Grand Tours in recent history. 2011 because the spectacular final week meant people forgot how tedious the first two weeks were, and because a short mountain stage was a success, they decided that they had to have short mountain stages every year not as part of a balanced diet of different types of mountain stage, but as a substitute for well designed ones. The 2012 Vuelta was one of the worst designed GTs of all time, but a fortunate set of circumstances led to the perfect storm for it, with the Tour being so TT-biased Purito targeted Giro-Vuelta that year, Froome having unfinished business (had he won in 2011 originally, he mightn't have returned), Contador's weirdly timed ban meant the Vuelta was his only realistic target that year, you had three of the most popular Spanish riders all at the peaks of their powers on a race heavily balanced toward their skillset, and the race was a success, was hailed as one of the greatest Vueltas ever, and so that template has been copied over and over by the race since.
 
I think both the team and all of us got played by the UAE tactics. Analysing what they said after the stage yesterday this was the plan all along. They prepared specifically for this TT and knew that Pogi could blow everyone out of the water. And it was the only chance for him to win due to the lack of team. So they led everyone to believe Pogi wan't feeling at his best for the last couple of days. He looked tired in the interviews, he said there is no way he can beat Roglič, that he will try to protect the podium or go for the polka dots. He looked like he gave up on winninf a Rogla was stronger. But in reallity this was all just the plan and Jumbo fell for it. Alan Peiper said that they will only talk about the tactics after stage 20. The one that got some inside info was Jani Brajkovič. And he tweeted "There will be a surprise" before any of the main contender started. UAE played a perfect tactical game. And they had the strongest rider.
 
I think both the team and all of us got played by the UAE tactics. Analysing what they said after the stage yesterday this was the plan all along. They prepared specifically for this TT and knew that Pogi could blow everyone out of the water. And it was the only chance for him to win due to the lack of team. So they led everyone to believe Pogi wan't feeling at his best for the last couple of days. He looked tired in the interviews, he said there is no way he can beat Roglič, that he will try to protect the podium or go for the polka dots. He looked like he gave up on winninf a Rogla was stronger. But in reallity this was all just the plan and Jumbo fell for it. Alan Peiper said that they will only talk about the tactics after stage 20. The one that got some inside info was Jani Brajkovič. And he tweeted "There will be a surprise" before any of the main contender started. UAE played a perfect tactical game. And they had the strongest rider.
Getting dropped is a tactic now.
 
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I think both the team and all of us got played by the UAE tactics. Analysing what they said after the stage yesterday this was the plan all along. They prepared specifically for this TT and knew that Pogi could blow everyone out of the water. And it was the only chance for him to win due to the lack of team. So they led everyone to believe Pogi wan't feeling at his best for the last couple of days. He looked tired in the interviews, he said there is no way he can beat Roglič, that he will try to protect the podium or go for the polka dots. He looked like he gave up on winninf a Rogla was stronger. But in reallity this was all just the plan and Jumbo fell for it. Alan Peiper said that they will only talk about the tactics after stage 20. The one that got some inside info was Jani Brajkovič. And he tweeted "There will be a surprise" before any of the main contender started. UAE played a perfect tactical game. And they had the strongest rider.
I don't buy that for a second! If he was the stronger one, he would gain time whenever he could. He simply can't know how much time he can gain in the ITT. He can't know if he can gain any! Roglic is a world class in ITT, he can't know when he will have a not so good day. Or you want to tell me that he knew he will ride on par with Dumoulin on the flat, and gave him 1.20m on the climb!?
The truth is we witnessed a miracle yesterday! Jumbo did nothing wrong.
 
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I stand by that Jumbo did what it should after Dumoulin kinda blew himself up. The only tactic left was set Roglic in a position that he either leads or is very close before the ITT, and then finish it off.
They were happy with a near 1 minute lead on Pogacar. And in normal circumstances, given all the historical data on TT they have, that seems a safe margin to everyone.

Nobody knew Pogacar could blast the entire field in a way we saw yesterday. Like I said earlier only problem was underestimation of Pogacar. But who even knew besides maybe UAE themselves?
 
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I stand by that Jumbo did what it should after Dumoulin kinda blew himself up. The only tactic left was set Roglic in a position that he either leads or is very close before the ITT, and then finish it off.
They were happy with a near 1 minute lead on Pogacar. And in normal circumstances, given all the historical data on TT they have, that seems a safe margin to everyone.

Nobody knew Pogacar could blast the entire field in a way we saw yesterday. Like I said earlier only problem was underestimation of Pogacar. But who even knew besides maybe UAE themselves?
Exactly.

I think Roglic gave Pogacar too long a leash on stage 8 and that's about it. Dumoulin was simply just not good enough or close enough in the end to truly use as a tactical nuke to put time into Pogacar. Even if he gets 2 minutes back on stage 16 and stage 18 it wouldn't have mattered. Not even if he'd dropped like 90 seconds less on stage 8. There's so much hindsight here but the amount of foresight you need to win this is absurd unless you assume Roglic has been sleeping on race winning legs all Tour.
 

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