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I think both the team and all of us got played by the UAE tactics. Analysing what they said after the stage yesterday this was the plan all along. They prepared specifically for this TT and knew that Pogi could blow everyone out of the water. And it was the only chance for him to win due to the lack of team. So they led everyone to believe Pogi wan't feeling at his best for the last couple of days. He looked tired in the interviews, he said there is no way he can beat Roglič, that he will try to protect the podium or go for the polka dots. He looked like he gave up on winninf a Rogla was stronger. But in reallity this was all just the plan and Jumbo fell for it. Alan Peiper said that they will only talk about the tactics after stage 20. The one that got some inside info was Jani Brajkovič. And he tweeted "There will be a surprise" before any of the main contender started. UAE played a perfect tactical game. And they had the strongest rider.
Yep, the signs were there that he had the potential to put significant time into Roglic in the TT. Roglic's history of fading in final week TTs, combined with Pogacar's own excellent and still improving TT results.

Jumbo way too complacent. DS should be coming under serious pressure, not least from Roglic himself. He should be furious with his team.
 
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I think both the team and all of us got played by the UAE tactics. Analysing what they said after the stage yesterday this was the plan all along. They prepared specifically for this TT and knew that Pogi could blow everyone out of the water. And it was the only chance for him to win due to the lack of team. So they led everyone to believe Pogi wan't feeling at his best for the last couple of days. He looked tired in the interviews, he said there is no way he can beat Roglič, that he will try to protect the podium or go for the polka dots. He looked like he gave up on winninf a Rogla was stronger. But in reallity this was all just the plan and Jumbo fell for it. Alan Peiper said that they will only talk about the tactics after stage 20. The one that got some inside info was Jani Brajkovič. And he tweeted "There will be a surprise" before any of the main contender started. UAE played a perfect tactical game. And they had the strongest rider.
I like this theory because it's fun.
 
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I don't buy that for a second! If he was the stronger one, he would gain time whenever he could. He simply can't know how much time he can gain in the ITT. He can't know if he can gain any! Roglic is a world class in ITT, he can't know when he will have a not so good day. Or you want to tell me that he knew he will ride on par with Dumoulin on the flat, and gave him 1.20m on the climb!?
The truth is we witnessed a miracle yesterday! Jumbo did nothing wrong.
Nonsense. If Pogacar would have taken yellow, or even got within a handful of seconds, too soon, then he would have been left incredibly vulnerable given his weak team. The plan to take the yellow jersey as late as possible does actually make sense for UAE (unlike for Jumbo). Especially if they had the numbers all along to think that putting a minute or more into Roglic was a possibility.
 
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Like Froome defended his 2017 Tour lead, or Contador defended 2010 Tour lead and 2008 Giro lead?

Basically we're retroactively saying he should've made attacks on descent finishes with 10km or more of flat afterwards or just attack on stages where he got beaten.
No-one is retroactively saying anything; people have been criticizing Jumbo's tactics throughout the race. And it's not even as though Roglic had to do something crazy himself. He had a much, much stronger team, and Jumbo did nothing with it apart from try to strangle the race and try to gain a handful of seconds late on. Their use of Dumoulin in particular was stunningly poor and one dimensional.
 
Like Froome defended his 2017 Tour lead, or Contador defended 2010 Tour lead and 2008 Giro lead?

Basically we're retroactively saying he should've made attacks on descent finishes with 10km or more of flat afterwards or just attack on stages where he got beaten.
Retroactively? I've been saying this the whole Tour. So other riders took the same risk and it didn't blow up in their faces, so what? That doesn't mean it was safe. You can drunk drive and get back home safely.
 
Like Froome defended his 2017 Tour lead, or Contador defended 2010 Tour lead and 2008 Giro lead?

Basically we're retroactively saying he should've made attacks on descent finishes with 10km or more of flat afterwards or just attack on stages where he got beaten.
No. Roglic didn't even try to gain time on Peyrol and on the Loze he looked better than Pogacar and could have gained more time.

And of course, he should have worked with 2 nominally worse TT riders when he had a gap on the Peyresourde.
 
Like Froome defended his 2017 Tour lead, or Contador defended 2010 Tour lead and 2008 Giro lead?

Basically we're retroactively saying he should've made attacks on descent finishes with 10km or more of flat afterwards or just attack on stages where he got beaten.
Contador was getting dropped by Ricco almost every time the road went uphill in 2008 Giro, so the two situations are not really comparable.
 
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Nonsense. If Pogacar would have taken yellow, or even got within a handful of seconds, too soon, then he would have been left incredibly vulnerable given his weak team. The plan to take the yellow jersey as late as possible does actually make sense for UAE (unlike for Jumbo). Especially if they had the numbers all along to think that putting a minute or more into Roglic was a possibility.
Thinking the yellow jersey changes everything is just magical bs thinking. If Pogacar takes yellow by 10 seconds Jumbo isn't suddenly gonna take back 8 minutes with Dumoulin or pull massive attacks, they'll just get the better ITTer to the ITT and they'll still fancy their chances that it's good enough.

There's some serious magical thinking going on just because people got salty at Jumbo tactics, comparing them 1 on 1 to when Sky dominated the Tour with clearly the best rider in the race.
 
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Nonsense. If Pogacar would have taken yellow, or even got within a handful of seconds, too soon, then he would have been left incredibly vulnerable given his weak team. The plan to take the yellow jersey as late as possible does actually make sense for UAE (unlike for Jumbo). Especially if they had the numbers all along to think that putting a minute or more into Roglic was a possibility.
He could've came closer to Roglic then, if he didn't wanted the jersey, just to be even more sure, don't you think? Or were their tactics to make sure Jumbo and Rogla thinks they had this in the bag, like Rogla would ride faster if he knew Pogacar is that strong, right? And how exactly they could know how much time Pogacar can take, which numbers can tell you that?!
 
He could've came closer to Roglic then, if he didn't wanted the jersey, just to be even more sure, don't you think? Or were their tactics to make sure Jumbo and Rogla thinks they had this in the bag, like Rogla would ride faster if he knew Pogacar is that strong, right? And how exactly they could know how much time Pogacar can take, which numbers can tell you that?!
Sure, they couldn't be certain of anything; but if they knew that Pog was putting in great numbers on his TT bike this year it makes sense. They also know that Roglic has a history of underperforming in last week TTs.

Obviously the strategy wasn't guaranteed to work out as well as it did, but I can buy the fact that they thought it was their best chance of winning the race. Especially once Pog became the clear threat after Bernal dropped, it would have been very difficult to take time in the mountains given the strength of Jumbo domestiques.
 
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It’s obvious that taking Yellow early would not be a good strategy for a rider with essentially no team, so to that extent not going full bananas to take time on every mountain stage almost certainly was UAE strategy. And playing down the threat their rider posed to Roglic in interviews was just basic common sense. But if there had been some big elaborate con game at work and Pogacar was always riding within himself the big reveal would have been late on stage 18, not stage 20.
 
Pogacar also put way more time into Roglic uphill than vice versa



Now we're just making up reality as we go. Cool
As I said Roglic could have lmited his losses to less than 40 seconds even if he was not strong enough to follow Pogacar on Peyresourde ( and he was very strong, so maybe he could have ), and he could have tried to extend his advantage on Glieres. And maybe he could have gained more on Loze if they were aggressive. Also Jumbo did nothing on Lusette ( which probably did not cost them anything as Roglic very probably could not have gained anything on Pogacar though, but still ). Pogacar was very strong but with a better tactical riding from Jumbo/Roglic I think Roglic could have won the race.
 
Sure, they couldn't be certain of anything; but if they knew that Pog was putting in great numbers on his TT bike this year it makes sense. They also know that Roglic has a history of underperforming in last week TTs.

Obviously the strategy wasn't guaranteed to work out as well as it did, but I can buy the fact that they thought it was their best chance of winning the race. Especially once Pog became the clear threat after Bernal dropped, it would have been very difficult to take time in the mountains given the strength of Jumbo domestiques.
First: Pogacar could've took time in the mountains if he was stronger no matter Jumbo strength, but he wasn't.
Second: Regardless of Roglic's history you can NEVER be sure how a rider will do on the given day and Tour is as much of a race that you shouldn't ever took that gamble. And they didn't.
 
To think that they had the best rider on the mountains and the best rider in the TT and a tactical and a strategic genius in the staff and they let Roglic gain some time in stage 17 to sandbag him and JV in the last TT then they did the last TT without power meter and only on feelings, that cannot be described in words
 
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I don't think that it matters much at all if Pogacar takes yellow earlier in the race. It is only tradition which says that his team must work, nothing more. For example, if he takes yellow and a dangerous break gets away, and it looks like a second tier GC rider is going to be in yellow by five minutes, so be it. Remember that Jumbo - if in this scenario Roglic is 30 seconds behind Pogocar - are losing just as much as UAE; the chance to wear yellow into Paris. Also, when Adam "I'm not going for GC" Yates was actually in yellow, what happened for much of the time? Oh yeah, Jumbo did most of the work anyway (or Bora).
 
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