The 2012 Tour de France polka dot jersey

[ulrikmm]

A thread for discussing the fight for the polka dot jersey in this years Tour de France.

Three days into the tour, Danish tour debutant Michael Mørkøv, twice 2009 track world champion, has decided to hunt down polka dot points in hilly Belgium by intelligent riding, and has made it to the podium twice.

How many days will Mørkøv lead the competition?

Who are his main competitors in the initial week of le Tour?

Who are the polka dot favourites in the high mountains?

Which stages will be decisive in the competition for the polka dot jersey?

Who will wear the polka dot jersey at Champs Elyssé?

Please discuss!

 

[WindLessBreeze]

Sky's Wiggo will miss Uran and Henao later

I don't know who will win the KOM; I mean, Samu won it last year, and he isn't even an specialist. Pure climbers don't seem to target this jersey so much anymore, as they are usually helping out their General captains (Or targetting hillier Giro&Vuelta). Write it up, other than Froome, Wiggo will wish he had the two handy colombians near by later on, when the Generals drop the Soldiers to the smithereens..........montani3semper

 

[RedheadDane]

It's gonna be an all-out battle between Johnny Hoogerland and Chris Anker Sørensen to take it to Paris!

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I told my flatmate to use up a free bet on CAS, so I hope Morkov's early bit of fun doesn't cause any weirdness.

 

[RedheadDane]

Naah... Mørkøv is just keeping it for Chris Anker!

 

[mwallack3]

Hooglerland vs Chris Anker

 

[gustienordic]

I can't see many other riders taking it over CAS or Hoogie. They will start attacking soon, I am sure.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

vino is going for it if he got the form it is said

 

[Publicus]

It's gonna be an all-out battle between Johnny Hoogerland and Chris Anker Sørensen to take it to Paris!

I think CAS is going to make his move tomorrow.

 

[Deagol]

Only speculation, but my guess is Pierre Roland

 

[sulgpallur]

I think CAS is going to make his move tomorrow.

I think its to early for that and not enough points to gain tomorrow

 

[jens_attacks]

if rolland decides to go for it,it will be easy peasy.but he still has chances for the gc,the tour is not over.we'll see after the alpes.

i hope vino and hoogerland will both go for it.

 

[ulrikmm]

It would definitely be cool to have a three week race-in-the-race fierce fight for the polka dot jersey.

Any suggestions which stages could prove decisive, that is a lot of KOM points at stakes?

 

[ulrikmm]

From wikipedia, how the KOM points are calculated:

"The points that are gained by consecutive riders reaching a mountain top are distributed according to the following classification:
Point Distribution Grid as of 2011
4C 3C 2C 1C HC
1st rider 1 2 5 10 20
2nd rider 1 3 8 16
3rd rider 2 6 12
4th rider 1 4 8
5th rider 2 4
6th rider 1 2

The points for a mountain top finish are doubled, if that mountain is an HC, 1C or 2C. The organisation of the race determines which mountains are included for the mountains classification and in which category they are.

EDIT: Please note points update on page 3 by Eyeballs_Out

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Sorensen vs. Hoogerland vs. Vino would be very entertaining

 

[Unkown]

if rolland decides to go for it,it will be easy peasy.but he still has chances for the gc,the tour is not over.we'll see after the alpes.

i hope vino and hoogerland will both go for it.

Considering how horribly bad his Prologue TT was he my as well go for KOM, no chance at top ten for him if his other TT's are as bad as that.

Vino vs Hoogerland vs CAS would be a great KOM battle if it happens!

 

[Fergoose]

The good thing is that the first ITT is so early, before any major KotM points, that a lot of potential top 20 GC contendors might turn their eye to the old polka dots soon once they see what sort of deficits they have. I can dream, can't I?

Bizarelly, due to the new scoring I'd actually make Evans my favourite as unlike all previous years, he actually has to be aggressive in the mountains and has the ability to be the most consistent on the MtFs.

 

[ulrikmm]

Sorensen vs. Hoogerland vs. Vino would be very entertaining

Imagine their facial expressions:

and

and

 

[Forunculo]

CAS has the better facial expression, even his body gesture are at the same level

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

CAS has the better facial expression, even his body gesture are at the same level

Kidding me?!?!
CAS is looking like that before they start racing, so it is just getting boring after a while... Vino shows true pain, and he fights it like noone else (mybe excpet Voigt on a good day).

 

[ulrikmm]

Now, THIS is how CAS looks like when in real pain = ITT:

 

[Eyeballs Out]

From wikipedia, how the KOM points are calculated:

"The points that are gained by consecutive riders reaching a mountain top are distributed according to the following classification:
Point Distribution Grid as of 2011
4C 3C 2C 1C HC
1st rider 1 2 5 10 20
2nd rider 1 3 8 16
3rd rider 2 6 12
4th rider 1 4 8
5th rider 2 4
6th rider 1 2

The points for a mountain top finish are doubled, if that mountain is an HC, 1C or 2C. The organisation of the race determines which mountains are included for the mountains classification and in which category they are.

This is out of date - the scoring has changed yet again this year - e.g. 25 pts for HC climbs now

New regs here - pages 15 (french) / 37 (english)

 

[ulrikmm]

Many thanx!

 

[Eyeballs Out]

You're welcome

There are Cat 1 mountain finishes this year worth 20 points but these are still worth less than the HC climbs (no HC finishes this year). So it looks like the key stages for the KOM will be 11 and 16. These both have two HC climbs before the stage finale so there are 100 pts on offer for a good climber down on GC who is allowed some rope on these two stages

 

[trevim]

I'm afraid Sorensen will save himself for a spectacular top20 on GC instead of going all out for stages and KOM. I would list Rafael Valls to the list of candidates: he only lost 17 seconds on Seraing so he probably has some form which means he'll go on a lot of moves in the mountains.