The Grand 2022 Wollongong UCI Road World Championships Thread, September 18th-25th

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Usually I'm critical of people who type "why didn't they react/chase?", but in this case it was eye bulging shocking that no one in the front group even flinched. That's the race going up the road. True, it will be really tough to get over her, but that's the title rolling away! I'm sure their legs are spent, but at least stand up and fake it, who knows what can happen?! That being said, AvV probably wins no matter who reacts.
There was some dumb riding; it's the Worlds, what were they playing at? I was just shaking my head.....
 
lol? Maybe you should take a look at all of Van der Poel's long range attacks and show me one where he doesn't fade away massively towards the end. He had a massive lead in both Tirreno and in Binckbank Tour, his two most revered long range attacks. He crossed the finish of both with mere seconds ahead.
De Ronde this year?!

Also, the dynamic changes completely if they are two, there's no way to extrapolate from previous solo to a situation where he goes with Remco.
 
That's just part of the problem, they shouldn't have put themselves in a situation where this could happen to begin with.
They even had 2 chances to get away but with only one working and the rest wanting a freeride to the finale , well to put it mildly they deserved what they got, more or less gifted the win to AvV. Sorry about Lippert though, she deserved more and the only one that really worked for it.
Mind-boggling .
Lippert definitely was the one who pushed the pace on the final two times up Pleasant (Niewadoma took over leading on the final climb), but how do you know she was going full out on her pulls on the others weren’t? It was easy to see that Cille avoided working, and we know that the other 4 weren’t pushing as hard as possible, because the chasers closed a big gap pretty quickly. But without seeing their Strava data, how do you know Lippert was the only one that was all in?
 
De Ronde this year?!

Also, the dynamic changes completely if they are two, there's no way to extrapolate from previous solo to a situation where he goes with Remco.
They were still in a group of 5 at 40k from the finish. In the final 20k from the finish there were no more climbs. I don't think we're talking about the same thing here.

Sorry, didn't see your edit. You think he has a big aerodynamic advantage by riding in Evenepoel's wheel?
 
Only makes sense if you're giving stars based on chances of a good result rather than a win. Which is a silly way to give stars, of course.
dunno, I think it always needs to be a mixture. Of course Matthews is more likely to finish Top 5 or so than winning, but as there are only one or two guys even more likely to finish that high up, I also think he deserves a high rating.

Matthews has a high chance to have a shot at the win, while Evenepoel for example has certainly a smaller chance to get the opportunity - but a bigger chance to make use of it. Don't think that makes him the more likely winner.
 
They were still in a group of 5 at 40k from the finish. In the final 20k from the finish there were no more climbs. I don't think we're talking about the same thing here.

Sorry, didn't see your edit. You think he has a big aerodynamic advantage by riding in Evenepoel's wheel?
  1. So, being in groups of 5 apparently doesn’t count as being in a long range attack? Also, no climbs in the final 20 k; Are we still talking about Flanders here? If yes, the last time Flanders didn‘t have very important climbs in the last 20k must have been in the stone age. Both Kwaremont and Paterberg are in the final 20k.
  2. MVDP is 13 cms taller than Evenepoel. Positioning on a bike isn‘t exactly upright so that size difference should be even lower. Do you think being 10 cms further up versus over a meter that is behind the other rider somehow destroys any significant drafting advantage?
I don’t understand this post.
 
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Well, yeah...
Even Campenaerts, an aero rouleur who is barely taller than Evenepoel said he had basically no real advantage by riding in his wheel. In the 2019NC De Bondt said the difference between riding in Evenepoel's wheel, or another rider (in this case it was Wallays) was over 100 watts at the same speed. While Evenepoel can recover in Van der Poel's wheel, the other way around is a completely different matter.

  1. So, being in groups of 5 apparently doesn’t count as being in a long range attack? Also, no climbs in the final 20 k; Are we still talking about Flanders here? If yes, the last time Flanders didn‘t have very important climbs in the last 20k must have been in the stone age. Both Kwaremont and Paterberg are in the final 20k.
  2. MVDP is 13 cms taller than Evenepoel. Positioning on a bike isn‘t exactly upright so that size difference should be even lower. Do you think being 10 cms further up versus over a meter that is behind the other rider somehow destroys any significant drafting advantage?
I don’t understand this post.
  1. It doesn't count as a long range solo attack, because they were with 5. And while it wasn't specified that it had to be a solo (or duo) attack, you very well know it was implied. Not only by the examples i provided, but also by the scenario as presented by the original poster. And in a group of 5, you get significantly more time to recover, which you do not get when riding solo, or when riding duo with a small and aero rider to hide behind.
  2. Clearly you have not heard from riders who have, unlike yourself, actually been in Evenepoel's wheel and have all said the same thing. You get very little aero benefit in his wheel, and when he keeps the pace high, you can't recover in his wheel.
 
Even Campenaerts, an aero rouleur who is barely taller than Evenepoel said he had basically no real advantage by riding in his wheel. In the 2019NC De Bond said the difference between riding in Evenepoel's wheel, or another rider (in this case it was Wallays) was over 100 watts at the same speed. While Evenepoel can recover in Van der Poel's wheel, the other way around is a completely different matter.


  1. It doesn't count as a long range solo attack, because they were with 5. And while it wasn't specified that it had to be a solo (or duo) attack, you very well know it was implied. Not only by the examples i provided, but also by the scenario as presented by the original poster. And in a group of 5, you get significantly more time to recover, which you do not get when riding solo, or when riding duo with a small and aero rider to hide behind.
  2. Clearly you have not heard from riders who have, unlike yourself, actually been in Evenepoel's wheel and have all said the same thing. You get very little aero benefit in his wheel, and when he keeps the pace high, you can't recover in his wheel.
It seems absurd to me that the difference should be that high just because Evenepoel is low and aero. I just don't believe it.
 
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So... hopefully my beloved French team will work as one and not get into any intern fights. That's my biggest fear for them. Oh, and despite me rooting for the French I'm not rooting for Laporte because... well, Jumbo. o_O Okay, that's emotionally confusing...

Anyway, I think both Laporte and Cosnefroy have a very good chance of winning.

This is my night-before-world-champs-stars' list:

:wineglass::wineglass::wineglass::wineglass::wineglass: van Aert
:wineglass::wineglass::wineglass::wineglass:Laporte, Hayter
:wineglass::wineglass::wineglass:Pogacar, Evenepoel
:wineglass::wineglass:van der Poel, Cosnefroy
:wineglass:Bagioli, Wright

and yes, maybe I'm drunk to have put together this list like that.
 
So... hopefully my beloved French team will work as one and not get into any intern fights. That's my biggest fear for them. Oh, and despite me rooting for the French I'm not rooting for Laporte because... well, Jumbo. o_O Okay, that's emotionally confusing...

Anyway, I think both Laporte and Cosnefroy have a very good chance of winning.

This is my night-before-world-champs-stars' list:

:wineglass::wineglass::wineglass::wineglass::wineglass: van Aert
:wineglass::wineglass::wineglass::wineglass:Laporte, Hayter
:wineglass::wineglass::wineglass:Pogacar, Evenepoel
:wineglass::wineglass:van der Poel, Cosnefroy
:wineglass:Bagioli, Wright

and yes, maybe I'm drunk to have put together this list like that.
Hayter has never finished on a podium of any sort of race (one day or stage) of over 200km.
 
In an interview after the race, Cecilie Uttrup said "and nobody did anything" about the van Vleuten attack. That made me think: Why didn't YOU do anything, Cecilie? She's extremely defensive in this kind of situations.
I think she has less blame for the last km with avv, where she was kind of boxed in, than for not coorperating fully in the group. When she evaluates the race without the high race pulse, I hope she learns from it. It is kind of a new situation for her though, not being the underdog in group 1 and she got too defensive, imo.
 
I really don't understand how you can give so many stars to Matthews. How is he going to win? Yes he's guaranteed to be top 5 and has shot at a podium, but winning? How exactly? Matthews is just going to be Matthews and wait till the big guns go and then there's always someone that's going to be faster than him.
Well he's been very good this year, many ones and twos and like we saw in the Tour in Mende. Good pick imho.

What I'm trying to figure out is, if Magnus Cort could be placed into the same scenario as how Fedorov did it in espoirs, possible? It is I think, he's got the qualities for exactly the same type of hijack.

Or maybe it's Lutsenko, afterall every cyclist needs a new jersey, at least once in a ten years.
 

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