Koronin I agree with you some of the riders is late bloomer. I maybe do wrong when I lift up NTT, I think it is trend now that a lot of teams signs riders over 30 years and a lot of them is not good anymore but of course my thoughts can be wrong. But I am interested to find out what other on this forum thinks
I think the fact it's NTT means they come in for some bonus stick because a few years ago in their Dimension Data guise they went through a bit of a phase of letting their younger riders walk in favour of trying to reassemble 2009 HTC-Columbia to little effect - I think signing veteran classics men and climbers is usually easier to reconcile than sprinters because the latter often rely heavily on explosiveness, which tends to be eroded with age as well as having the problem that they are arguably the riders most susceptible to high speed crashes. This is borne out in other sports, for example cross-country skiing where the best sprinters on the World Cup tend to be young and up-and-coming, before moving into distance, and the ultra-distance Ski Classics series is dominated by athletes around 35 years of age or sometimes more, who have often ceased to be of value in the World Cup because of the balance of sprint races and short to mid distance races with only a few real long-distance events that suit them, whereas younger distance specialists like, say, Sjur Røthe or Theresa Stadlober, can still be players on the World Cup in the mid distance.
While certainly a few veteran sprinters have been able to score strong results deep into their careers, such as Robbie McEwen or Alessandro Petacchi, they have largely won on their smarts later in their career rather than relying on pure pace anymore; certainly they didn't get a full leadout train (McEwen in particular being famous for not needing one). The world is littered with sprinters who were the best for a while and then faded away, however, and this is often why experienced sprinters are repurposed as leadout men (e.g. Richeze) or rouleur helpers/pilotfish (e.g. Bennati). Dimension Data, went all out with not one but two sprinters who were clearly declining, in Cavendish and Farrar, and a full leadout train to support them, mostly comprised of the riders that were already the veterans to pilot Cavendish during his peak years, so a few years older than him themselves.
Part of the benefit of signing veterans is that their experience means they require less tutelage and less effort expended to keep them where they should be, so signing a sprinter with a full entourage rather negates the benefit of getting that experience. Petacchi, even in his late 30s, got by successfully with just one man, Danilo Hondo, to guide him. The two of them were both veterans who knew their way around a leadout, so Lampre could just let them get on with it and trust them to find each other when they needed to, and by and large they did. In all honesty, Renshaw and Cavendish could have likely done the same. It would also have taken some pressure off Cavendish as he wouldn't have had the whole team strung out on the front only for him to be swamped by younger and hungrier sprinters doing to him what he used to do to the whole generation of sprinters that preceded him and making them look pedestrian.
The other part - and don't discount how important this is - is that you are getting a
known quantity. A young guy who has only got one year at the top level is a bit of a mystery box. He could be a superstar in the making... but he could be Murilo Fischer... or he could be José António Pecharromán... or he could be Jonathan Tiernan-Locke. There are enough instances in cycling of one year wonders or misleading performances that made somebody look like a star only for them to fail miserably in other circumstances for a variety of reasons. Take crashes and accidents out of it and so exclude people like Kai Reus and Adriano Malori, but you've got riders who thrive in particular environments or with particular types of coaching. Janneke Ensing was great with Alé-Cipollini, but her big-money move to Sunweb ended with a mutual parting of the ways and an acceptance of utter failure just four months into the contract because they hadn't been able to mesh the athletes' needs with the team's style of management. Juan José Cobo's history of psychological issues are well documented. The more years of information you have on a rider, the more accurately you can predict how they will perform for you, and while that may be the more conservative call, it's hard to blame a team for making a more conservative call in today's environment where there isn't much in the way of security for funding, for races, for careers. It may not be the most exciting or innovative thinking, and it may not be what fans want to see, but if one guy is consistently scoring a bank of decent results, he's more valuable in the present climate than a guy who either gets big results or no results at all.