The "How does Pavel Sivakov not have a thread yet" thread

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I was impressed with him this week. I think he has 1 or 2 big wins in him. Let's be real, outside whomever Jumbo throws out there, Pog and whomever Ineos throws out there, the GC battle in most races is just just a crapshoot. The question is how does he do with leadership. If Carapaz does leave Ineos maybe PS gets his chance at Ineos.
 
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I was impressed with him this week. I think he has 1 or 2 big wins in him. Let's be real, outside whomever Jumbo throws out there, Pog and whomever Ineos throws out there, the GC battle in most races is just just a crapshoot. The question is how does he do with leadership. If Carapaz does leave Ineos maybe PS gets his chance at Ineos.
I'm not seeing it. Today he finishes about 5s ahead of his 21yo teammate who had been working for him on the steepest part of the climb, while he himself, Sivakov, appears to be in the best form of his career so far. If Ineos use their brain they do not make him teamleader. They will only sacrifice good/better riders and come up short. Best they can do, is send him, with De Plus, Rodriguez, Hart and Carapaz to the Vuelta and let the road figure it out. He could well turn out to be Ineos' 5th guy at the Vuelta.

If Carapaz leaves, i still expect Bernal to come back. Then Arensman is coming and to be honest, i think he as well as De Plus and definitely Rodriguez have a substantially higher ceiling.

Anyway, he didn't win Burgos because he was the best climber, but because he was the fastest descender. Strong ride to the finish on thursday, so definitely deserved overall.
 
Sivakov won Burgos because he was the strongest of the race, particulary on Picon Blanco stage, not because he was the fastest descender. He built up a 1m lead over the group without any help from Lopez. Then on the descent he gained like 5s to Lopez and then he destroyed him on the flat with EF and Bora being unable to reel him back.

There is no way Sivakov is the "fifth best rider" on INEOS roster for Vuelta with the current set-up.

De Plus only had a very good level for one month in his career, which was on 2019, and anyways not for GT leadership material. Tao is closer to a one hit wonder than a recurring Top 10 GT contender.

We do not know the ceiling of Carlos Rodriguez, which I rate higher at the moment (but don't forget that Sivakov was once heralded as a future GT winner) and of course Carapaz is a better choice, but he should at least be a protected rider.
 
How much does he weight?

He seems to have a "bulkier" build compared to other GC riders, maybe it's because of his size, but given his appearance steep climbs like the end of yesterday's maybe doesn't suit him so much.

I think his level stagnated a bit since 2019 due to a combination of corona season and crashes.

After his 2019 I would expect he would be given a free role in some secondary GT in 2020 but the condensation of the season plus Froome's and Thomas's form meant he needed to be put in the Tour squad where it was just hell for him. I remember 2 or 3 big crashes only in the first week.

In 2021 same story, was supposed to be coleader with Bernal in the Giro until he went into a tree on stage 5.
 
How much does he weight?

He seems to have a "bulkier" build compared to other GC riders, maybe it's because of his size, but given his appearance steep climbs like the end of yesterday's maybe doesn't suit him so much.

I think his level stagnated a bit since 2019 due to a combination of corona season and crashes.

After his 2019 I would expect he would be given a free role in some secondary GT in 2020 but the condensation of the season plus Froome's and Thomas's form meant he needed to be put in the Tour squad where it was just hell for him. I remember 2 or 3 big crashes only in the first week.

In 2021 same story, was supposed to be coleader with Bernal in the Giro until he went into a tree on stage 5.
He is quite skinny. Look at the podium ceremony. In fact when he was on the podium of San Sebastian next to Evenepoel you could see how skinny his arms, upper body and legs are in comparison.

Sivakov won Burgos because he was the strongest of the race, particulary on Picon Blanco stage, not because he was the fastest descender. He built up a 1m lead over the group without any help from Lopez. Then on the descent he gained like 5s to Lopez and then he destroyed him on the flat with EF and Bora being unable to reel him back.

There is no way Sivakov is the "fifth best rider" on INEOS roster for Vuelta with the current set-up.

De Plus only had a very good level for one month in his career, which was on 2019, and anyways not for GT leadership material. Tao is closer to a one hit wonder than a recurring Top 10 GT contender.

We do not know the ceiling of Carlos Rodriguez, which I rate higher at the moment (but don't forget that Sivakov was once heralded as a future GT winner) and of course Carapaz is a better choice, but he should at least be a protected rider.
Counting from the last shot we got of Sivakov when he still hadn't passed the top (with the flag poles) to the moment the chasers passed by, it were 52s. So it's possible it wasn't even 50s as he still needed some time to pass the top at that time. The group behind him was still 20 guys, with others close behind (who actually came back after the climb). So the pace was simply not that high in that group, likely because they thought it was too early in the race with still some way to go to the finish. Point was that his lead on Picon Blanco wasn't because he was the best climber, but because he was the only one who took the risk to go from far. That's admirable and just as deserved, which i already mentioned, but as an effort it simply isn't a reference for possible GT result. His form is obviously good, that's not the issue.

It's funny you would mock De Plus for being only good for one month in 2019, which is an obvious lie, because Sivakov hasn't shown much at all since 2019 himself. You think if Sivakov would have worked like De Plus yesterday, that he would still have finished only 2 minutes behind? Regardless, what i have seen of De Plus in a GT came closer to contender material than what i have ever seen of Sivakov. And it's obvious from Burgos that De Plus, for the first time after 2 years of health issues, is again in very good form.

So as we have already seen a better GT form by Hart and De Plus than Sivakov, and Rodriguez is simply class at 21 which Sivakov inherently doesn't have. Of course, if Ineos makes the mistake to make him a leader and sacrifice others, then indeed there is no way he will be their 5th guy. If however he does not get protected status and the team will figure out halfway who will work for who based on GC, then i would not bet my house on it if i were you.
 
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I'd rate Sivakov's 2019 Giro better than anything De Plus has ever done in a GT so I am not sure what exactly was it about De Plus that made him closer to GT contender material apart from being Belgian.
He's definitely a better Belgian than Sivakov, but i have no idea why you bring that up. Or maybe you think the other people i was talking about were also Belgian? Maybe Rodriguez, who has not shown anything in a GT, is also a Belgian? Or maybe you want to score some easy points?
 
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I can't really think of any other justification why a few GT stages in the top 10 here and there would be considered better than an overall GT top 10

And it's normal that people overrate their countrymen and riders they like, so not sure why the tense reaction.
 
I can't really think of any other justification why a few GT stages in the top 10 here and there would be considered better than an overall GT top 10

And it's normal that people overrate their countrymen and riders they like, so not sure why the tense reaction.
Because it's a dck comment. De Plus did tons of work and was one of the best climbers in the 2019 TDF. And i can't remember Sivakov's Giro being really that impressive. But if you are looking for top 10 spots of a guy who had been working his ass of as a domestique to use as a benchmark, sure. That's why i said what i said. So no reason for such a remark.
 
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He is quite skinny. Look at the podium ceremony. In fact when he was on the podium of San Sebastian next to Evenepoel you could see how skinny his arms, upper body and legs are in comparison.


Counting from the last shot we got of Sivakov when he still hadn't passed the top (with the flag poles) to the moment the chasers passed by, it were 52s. So it's possible it wasn't even 50s as he still needed some time to pass the top at that time. The group behind him was still 20 guys, with others close behind (who actually came back after the climb). So the pace was simply not that high in that group, likely because they thought it was too early in the race with still some way to go to the finish. Point was that his lead on Picon Blanco wasn't because he was the best climber, but because he was the only one who took the risk to go from far. That's admirable and just as deserved, which i already mentioned, but as an effort it simply isn't a reference for possible GT result. His form is obviously good, that's not the issue.

It's funny you would mock De Plus for being only good for one month in 2019, which is an obvious lie, because Sivakov hasn't shown much at all since 2019 himself. You think if Sivakov would have worked like De Plus yesterday, that he would still have finished only 2 minutes behind? Regardless, what i have seen of De Plus in a GT came closer to contender material than what i have ever seen of Sivakov. And it's obvious from Burgos that De Plus, for the first time after 2 years of health issues, is again in very good form.

So as we have already seen a better GT form by Hart and De Plus than Sivakov, and Rodriguez is simply class at 21 which Sivakov inherently doesn't have. Of course, if Ineos makes the mistake to make him a leader and sacrifice others, then indeed there is no way he will be their 5th guy. If however he does not get protected status and the team will figure out halfway who will work for who based on GC, then i would not bet my house on it if i were you.
To be fair Sivakov was also absolute class at 21 as well. His last year at u23 he was probably the best rider in that category. After that his 2019 year was also super impressive for a rider that young (well at least at the time it was still impressive for a rider that young to be very good already)

But he hasn’t developed as expected since. Still he has shown more potential for a GC guy that de Plus in my opinion. Regardless of nationality.
 
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To be fair Sivakov was also absolute class at 21 as well. His last year at u23 he was probably the best rider in that category. After that his 2019 year was also super impressive for a rider that young (well at least at the time it was still impressive for a rider that young to be very good already)

But he hasn’t developed as expected since. Still he has shown more potential for a GC guy that de Plus in my opinion. Regardless of nationality.
That's fair and I'm well aware of his U23 results. Yet i still don't think Sivakov was at the level of Rodriguez when he was 21.

And to be clear, i never said that he would be the 5th rider or the worst of those i mentioned. I only said he could well be, as in my opinion (and everybody is entitled to theirs) the others i mentioned (including De Plus and Rodriguez) have impressed me more at one point in time regarding GT potential.
 
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Jan 17, 2022
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He is quite skinny. Look at the podium ceremony. In fact when he was on the podium of San Sebastian next to Evenepoel you could see how skinny his arms, upper body and legs are in comparison.


Counting from the last shot we got of Sivakov when he still hadn't passed the top (with the flag poles) to the moment the chasers passed by, it were 52s. So it's possible it wasn't even 50s as he still needed some time to pass the top at that time. The group behind him was still 20 guys, with others close behind (who actually came back after the climb). So the pace was simply not that high in that group, likely because they thought it was too early in the race with still some way to go to the finish. Point was that his lead on Picon Blanco wasn't because he was the best climber, but because he was the only one who took the risk to go from far. That's admirable and just as deserved, which i already mentioned, but as an effort it simply isn't a reference for possible GT result. His form is obviously good, that's not the issue.

It's funny you would mock De Plus for being only good for one month in 2019, which is an obvious lie, because Sivakov hasn't shown much at all since 2019 himself. You think if Sivakov would have worked like De Plus yesterday, that he would still have finished only 2 minutes behind? Regardless, what i have seen of De Plus in a GT came closer to contender material than what i have ever seen of Sivakov. And it's obvious from Burgos that De Plus, for the first time after 2 years of health issues, is again in very good form.

So as we have already seen a better GT form by Hart and De Plus than Sivakov, and Rodriguez is simply class at 21 which Sivakov inherently doesn't have. Of course, if Ineos makes the mistake to make him a leader and sacrifice others, then indeed there is no way he will be their 5th guy. If however he does not get protected status and the team will figure out halfway who will work for who based on GC, then i would not bet my house on it if i were you.
I'm a bit confused on the 2 minutes behind comment? Could you clarify? It seems like you're saying De Plus was actually stronger than Sivakov yesterday, but that makes zero sense so I must be misinterpreting.

FWIW: I do think that Picon Blanco performance is a little overrated, but also considering how much time he spent solo on stage 3 and his unfortunate decision to follow Rodriguez' poorly executed pacing on the final stage, he was the strongest rider in the race.

Also Sivakov showed his strongest legs in 2020, but was just hindered by crashes, he's certainly shown massively more than De Plus after 2019.
 
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I'm a bit confused on the 2 minutes behind comment? Could you clarify? It seems like you're saying De Plus was actually stronger than Sivakov yesterday, but that makes zero sense so I must be misinterpreting.

FWIW: I do think that Picon Blanco performance is a little overrated, but also considering how much time he spent solo on stage 3 and his unfortunate decision to follow Rodriguez' poorly executed pacing on the final stage, he was the strongest rider in the race.

Also Sivakov showed his strongest legs in 2020, but was just hindered by crashes, he's certainly shown massively more than De Plus after 2019.
The 2 minute comment was to show how strong De Plus actually was, even though nobody paid attention to it. Whether he could have been stronger than Sivakov, we don't know, but that wasn't really my point. The point is that he's on good form and when De Plus is on good form, he can be a real force. But yes, after 2019 Sivakov has shown more than De Plus, even if that doesn't mean much, considering neither did particularly well. As i made it clear in my initial post, i was talking about their ceiling.
 
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The 2 minute comment was to show how strong De Plus actually was, even though nobody paid attention to it. Whether he could have been stronger than Sivakov, we don't know, but that wasn't really my point. The point is that he's on good form and when De Plus is on good form, he can be a real force. But yes, after 2019 Sivakov has shown more than De Plus, even if that doesn't mean much, considering neither did particularly well. As i made it clear in my initial post, i was talking about their ceiling.
It was a solid pull, but to be honest, it wasn't more impressive than his RDO pull. Obviously, we don't know for sure 100% whether Sivakov is stronger. Harper who spent about 0.5KM more in the wind (Astana rider helped before De Plus took over, Harper and De Plus dropped at the same time) and finished 31s ahead. If De Plus was near Sivakov's level, Harper therefore would have been by far the strongest rider in the race yesterday, which is obviously absurd.
 
Sivakov won overall, he did what was necessary, and great that his teammates were amazing supporting him.
We do not know what he could have done and we were not privy to DS instructions to him.

Anyway they will all most likely be riding for Carapaz in a couple of weeks.
 
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Regardless, what i have seen of De Plus in a GT came closer to contender material than what i have ever seen of Sivakov. And it's obvious from Burgos that De Plus, for the first time after 2 years of health issues, is again in very good form.

So as we have already seen a better GT form by Hart and De Plus than Sivakov, and Rodriguez is simply class at 21 which Sivakov inherently doesn't have. Of course, if Ineos makes the mistake to make him a leader and sacrifice others, then indeed there is no way he will be their 5th guy. If however he does not get protected status and the team will figure out halfway who will work for who based on GC, then i would not bet my house on it if i were you.
I guess you relate to his domestique duties in 2019 for Kruisjwijk, which indeed were good. He did a very good job on Tourmalet and then on Iseran coming from the break. Similarly, Sivakov did a good job this year as well on the Giro for Carapaz and, on top of that, he was able to Top10 on a tough 2019 Giro which, at the moment, is something De Plus never managed to do on a GT.

Being a good domestique does not always translate into reliable GT contender and De Plus is yet to show something meaningful on a free GC role. Indeed, he failed notably at 2018 Vuelta when trying to do overall.

I don't even think Sivakov is a reliable GT leader but De Plus should be far down the pecking order.
 
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