Right, the Ardennes begin today, and we're guaranteed a brand new face on the podium of two of the three races, given that Lizzie Deignan is taking time out for starting a family, and with Liège-Bastogne-Liège having been a brand new race last year, and Amstel Gold being rebooted after fourteen years out, nobody who was on the podium in those earlier editions is racing today. With La Flèche Wallonne there's still the possibility of a podium made up of riders who've already been on the podium. It's difficult in some ways to shake the feeling that this trifecta of races is set up to be a repeat of last year's Kasia Niewiadoma vs. Boels-Dolmans duel, with Anna van der Breggen of course taking all three races last year, while Lizzie shadowed the remaining riders to nip ahead of Kasia for 2nd. Last year a few were able to stay with that lead group in Amstel Gold (remember, Annemiek van Vleuten was later credited with equal third at Amstel, so technically speaking I guess it wouldn't be a new podium face if the podium were to be made up of Anna, Kasia and Annemiek in any permutation), whereas in Flèche the three had a sizable advantage and in Liège Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio was with them for a while before dropping away.
The following active riders have podiumed Flèche however, to give an idea of the threats:
- Trixi Worrack (3rd, 2006)
- Marianne Vos (1st, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2nd 2012)
- Marta Bastianelli (2nd, 2008)
- Linda Villumsen (3rd, 2012)
- Elisa Longo Borghini (2nd, 2013, 3rd, 2014)
- Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (3rd, 2013)
- Pauline Ferrand-Prévot (1st, 2014)
- Anna van der Breggen (1st, 2015, 2016, 2017)
- Annemiek van Vleuten (2nd, 2015)
- Megan Guarnier (3rd, 2015, 2016)
- Katarzyna Niewiadoma (3rd, 2017)
Obviously some of those can be discounted - Worrack is a long way from the point in her career of threatening on the Mur de Huy, Villumsen is no longer specialising all-round as she was back then, and Bastianelli's podium came in the wake of her Stuttgart rainbow jersey and while she was being heavily pressured to diet down to be competitive in the climbs, which caused eating disorders and her suspension, since her return she has reinvented herself as a completely different type of rider.
Many of these also made up the top 10s last year which goes to show you the primary contenders:
Amstel:
1 Anna van der Breggen
2 Lizzie Deignan +55"
3= Katarzyna Niewiadoma +55"
3= Annemiek van Vleuten +55"
5 Elisa Longo Borghini +55"
6 Coryn Rivera +1'02"
7 Amy Pieters +1'51"
8 Pauline Ferrand-Prévot +1'51"
9 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio +1'51"
10 Ellen van Dijk +1'51"
Flèche:
1 Anna van der Breggen
2 Lizzie Deignan +16"
3 Katarzyna Niewiadoma +25"
4 Annemiek van Vleuten +43"
5 Shara Gillow +49"
6 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio +54"
7 Coryn Rivera +56"
8 Janneke Ensing +58"
9 Katrin Garfoot +1'00"
10 Flavia Oliveira +1'02"
Liège:
1 Anna van der Breggen
2 Lizzie Deignan +17"
3 Katarzyna Niewiadoma +19"
4 Ellen van Dijk +31"
5 Annemiek van Vleuten +31"
6 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio +31"
7 Shara Gillow +31"
8 Olga Zabelinskaya +31"
9 Elisa Longo Borghini +34"
10 Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig +41"
With no Lizzie to act as her sidekick, then, Anna will probably have to rely more heavily on Megan Guarnier to fulfil that role. Meg was returning from injury so not quite at her best during last year's Ardennes but her previous record with two podiums on the Mur de Huy show that she's more than capable of playing that role - and had they been healthy last year I would probably have backed her to be more helpful to Anna than Lizzie, to be quite honest, but Lizzie was on her best climbing form we've ever seen last season. The Boels sextet for Amstel Gold features a backup squad of Pieters, Blaak, Canuel, van den Bos and Guarnier, so they've still got good depth. Pieters is less likely to be as much assistance in the run-in in the Belgian races but she made it to a high placing in Amstel Gold and is able to get over a lot of that type of climb, but the more sustained Ardennes may be too hard for her. However there's also Karol-Ann Canuel who's been quiet thus far this season but has been a great climbing help in the last two years and able to make most selections. She was top 10 at Binda but that's her only notable result this year. And in previous years on a similar finish to this in the women's Boels Rentals Ladies Tour Chantal Blaak has managed some very strong finishes as well so, while she like Pieters may find the climbs of Flèche less to her liking, she could still contend here.
On her best performance in those stages, however, she came in five seconds behind arguably the biggest threat to the Boels hegemony, Kasia Niewiadoma. As doesn't really bear repeating by this stage, Kasia is a combative climber and since she will lose in a sprint against most real contenders (especially now Abbott and Lichtenberg are both retired, leaving only really Longo Borghini that she can feel confident in a two-up against) she will look to attack as soon as she has the legs. Her backup team includes two former podium riders here - PFP and Worrack. PFP hasn't been able to truly recapture her pre-injuries form, but she was still top 10 of an Ardennes race last year and, reunited with her old Rabo roommate, seems rejuvenated somewhat this season in terms of her riding, though it's still not clear how strong she is or can be. Amialiusik was top 3 in the Boels Rentals Tour stage to the Cauberg a couple of years ago and though she'll probably be a decoy attack with PFP and Kasia behind, she's still too dangerous to allow to go for that reason - though she prefers the bigger climbs later in the week. Ryan and Cecchini complete the team, the latter certainly can't be counted out of making some intriguing moves, though she hasn't been at her best thus far in 2018.
Mitchelton-Scott are built around Annemiek as you would expect, but with Garfoot not at the top level presently and racing over in the Commonwealth Games, their other major challenger from last year is no longer present. In her place, however, Lucy Kennedy might be of value, she's been top 10 of Strade Bianche and Trofeo Binda and while the field may not have been the best, she won the Tour de l'Ardêche last year which shows she can obviously climb. As well as her, they also have Amanda Spratt whose class in this kind of race is well known.
Sunweb are nominally led by Rivera, who had two top 10s, one in Amstel and one in Flèche, last year. The CN article suggests van Dijk to be the bigger threat however, and based on 2018 that's hard to argue; Coryn hasn't shown the same strength so far this season as she began last year with, while van Dijk has been very good, though mainly in races that don't give a representative guide to the Ardennes. Leah Kirchmann is on good form, being on the podium in the Brabantse Pijl, but how effective that is as a guide for the later Ardennes races I don't know, it might be useful for the Cauberg though. Lucinda Brand can't stay this quiet for long though, and Ruth Winder has thus far been anonymous - after the team's last two north American imports, Kirchmann and Rivera, hit the ground running, I can't help but suspect it's a matter of time before she starts to accumulate the results though.
The small size of the Cervélo team means I can more or less rinse and repeat what I've said about them many times before - Ash will be the leader, she's a great climber and we all love her for it, Cille will be the main support rider and she's great too, if the racing is conservative they have Lotta Lepistö but I doubt she'll make it to the end here. Similarly Wiggle are fairly self-explanatory too - without the secondary genuine climbing threat for this kind of race like Johansson and Lichtenberg were in previous years, they're going to be all in on the Longo Borghini train. Brennauer can maybe survive Amstel if her Thüringen Rundfahrt performances are anything to go by but Flèche and Liège should be a step too far. Alé also have a wildcard with Janneke Ensing who went from strength to strength as she worked through last season, and the former speed skater is a great combative rider who won a Boels Rentals Tour stage in the Limburg area last season too.
Marianne Vos, that perennial threat, has submitted probably the strongest on-paper Waowdeals team for Amstel Gold, with decent climbing help from Pauliena Rooijakkers and Sabrina Stultiens. Quite a few talented but inconsistent riders on that team though, so it will depend how well protected those climbers can be on the flats, and how long those flat engines can withstand the hills to be of assistance. There's a good few notable threats in smaller teams too - I'm not sure this week will be best for Cylance, FDJ seem like the biggest outside threat thanks to Shara Gillow who managed some strong Ardennes showings last year, it's been a quiet year for the Aussie so far but she has a strong history in these types of race. Eugenia Bujak once won Plouay of course, so she can potentially survive Amstel if not the others, while Astana have Arlenis Sierra who had a great year last season, and Sofia Bertizzolo in the U23 jersey. Małgorzata Jasińska has had a good and visible early season for Movistar, while Aromitalia have Rasa Leleivyte, who always seems to step up in this kind of finish but not normally until later in the season. A real shame BePink aren't here as I would have liked to see Nosková.