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proffate

I think you’re leaving out the base probability here: there will be some big favs for the RR but the total number of riders who have a reasonable chance to win (20?) will be higher than the number of MTB competitors with a reasonable chance to win.
These days, the total number of riders with a chance to win any big event is like 6, and for a particular event it's only about 3.

MVDP is batting .750 this year in big road races.

Your logic does not apply to superhumans.

Sciatic

These days, the total number of riders with a chance to win any big event is like 6, and for a particular event it's only about 3.

MVDP is batting .750 this year in big road races.

Your logic does not apply to superhumans.
Perhaps you’re right, considering they attack from 30-50km out eliminating the chance that hangers-on can win. Will be interesting to see if that gap between the 3-4 best and the rest starts to narrow during the next few years.

Sandisfan

Keldergoat

I think you’re leaving out the base probability here: there will be some big favs for the RR but the total number of riders who have a reasonable chance to win (20?) will be higher than the number of MTB competitors with a reasonable chance to win.
Oh, the base probability will be higher at MTB because of basic maths, but Glasgow also proved that on a very long, hilly circuit, the ususal suspects do flourish.

Sciatic

KZD

I think if Van der Poel really wants to contest the win in the MTB olympic race, he will probably need to lose 2/3 kilos and that way it would make sense for him to go for Liège. I don't necessarily think that it means he will skip Roubaix though but it makes sense that de Ronde its his main goal of the spring as he is one win way from matching the record.

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Berniece

In an interview with Contador, MVDP said he's thinking about the 5 monument. Liege should be feasible but difficult, but Lombardia is probably going to be too hard since it's really a race for climbers.

Keldergoat

Blanco

In an interview with Contador, MVDP said he's thinking about the 5 monument. Liege should be feasible but difficult, but Lombardia is probably going to be too hard since it's really a race for climbers.
Liege first. Starting from next year. Then he'll think about Lombardia...
And he wants all 5, I agree...

scribers

MVP has a better chance of collecting a haul of monuments to challenge Eddy with 3 monuments than he will ever trying to collect at least one of all 5.

Sandisfan

KZD

MVP has a better chance of collecting a haul of monuments to challenge Eddy with 3 monuments than he will ever trying to collect at least one of all 5.

I am a Van der Poel fan but there is no way that he is going to reach Merckx's 19 monument wins or even come close to that, so it makes sense that he tries to win all five and also tries to beat the Flanders record as he is only two wins away from achieving that.

Anyway, according to the article on the CN website he is going to do 10-15 cross races this winter starting in December and plans to ride both the MTB and road Olympic races. Still didn't decide which Grand Tour he will ride.

scribers

I heard somewhere he’s leaning vuelta and never raced in Spain before. What?? I guess wherever philipsen is. I reckon he doesn’t have to ride all of the tour and it can be nice preparation for someone like him for the Olympics right after.

Sandisfan

KenFiamingo

All 5 monuments? Never gonna happen.

4 Ronde's (record) and 4 Roubaix (hi Roger!) is a nice challenge as well.

scribers

It’s for another thread, it can pog threaten Merckx’s 19 wins? Pog has a better shot at all 5 than MVP

Sandisfan

KZD

It’s for another thread, it can pog threaten Merckx’s 19 wins? Pog has a better shot at all 5 than MVP

I don't see Pogačar reaching Merckx 19 monuments wins either but I am pretty sure that he will win more than Van der Poel as he is younger and has already one more.

As for winning all 5 monuments, the only way I see Pogačar doing it is if somewhere in the next few years, when he has already won a Giro or a Vuelta, maybe another Tour, he just fully dedicates himself to that achievement leaving Grand Tour GC's for other riders, otherwise I don't see him winning both Sanremo and Roubaix.

scribers

MSR is one of those races where you have to race it every year and conditions are perfect that one or two times. P-R is a vexing one for Pog in a different way that Lombardia might be vexing for MVP. Fun fact, lemond took second at P-R. Very similar rider to Pogi

Bolder

I don't see Pogačar reaching Merckx 19 monuments wins either but I am pretty sure that he will win more than Van der Poel as he is younger and has already one more.

As for winning all 5 monuments, the only way I see Pogačar doing it is if somewhere in the next few years, when he has already won a Giro or a Vuelta, maybe another Tour, he just fully dedicates himself to that achievement leaving Grand Tour GC's for other riders, otherwise I don't see him winning both Sanremo and Roubaix.
He nearly won MSR last year. If MvdP hadn't been able to follow and drop him he might have pulled a Mohoric. I agree that for him he'd have to be a little lucky, but less lucky than most.

Same with PR. I don't think he's a worse classics rider than Van Baarle or Colbrelli.

KZD

He nearly won MSR last year. If MvdP hadn't been able to follow and drop him he might have pulled a Mohoric. I agree that for him he'd have to be a little lucky, but less lucky than most.

Same with PR. I don't think he's a worse classics rider than Van Baarle or Colbrelli.

Nearly won is a bit of a stretch. Sure he opened up the race and finish in a very respectable 4th but the gap to Van der Poel was actually very big for MSR standards. Also, unlike Mohorič, he is a not a crazy descender and will always be very marked by his rivals. He can still win the race but will likely need to drop everyone on the Poggio and hold them back until the finish or catch the riders that are with him napping in the last 2km and do a successful attack.

As for Roubaix, well he can't really win a race that he doesn't ride. Still I believe that sooner or later he will be on the start line despite all of his talent it will always be very difficult for a 66kg rider to win a flat cobbled race, that is a disavantage that he has over the riders you mentioned.

Of course that if he fully focuses on that and gains muscle mass at the expense of Grand Tour results, as I said in my post, his chances of winning all five monuments will surely increase but we don't even know if Pogačar is willing to do that, at the moment he actually says the Giro, the Vuelta and the Worlds are the races still missing from his palmares that he really wants to win.

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Berniece

Blip about it in the CN WvA article on front page
That’s just wrong. He did say that he isn’t sure he is going to ride CX every season anymore in the future because there’s nothing to win for him anymore. But this year he’ll still ride, and for the future he might skip some years.

Boes

MVP is without a doubt the best classic riders of this age but to strive for 5 it's better to be a climber/puncher that focusses on one day races than a classic rider that tries to become a better climber. If that makes any sence.

Lombardy will always be a climber race and classic riders stand little to no chance. Liège is a climber race to but because of flat finish classic riders stand a fair chance (such as WVA or MVP). Don't underestimate the RVV neither. It has more altitude meters than some mountain stages in grand tours.

Point & examples
- Gilbert: Puncher first with a refocuss on Northern classics towards the end of his carreer
- Valverde: top tier Valverde would have been perfect to try for all 5 if he wasn't focussed on winning Fleche Walloon like 29 times or so
- Superstars that are GC/climbers first such as Poggy, Merckx (and maybe Remco)
- bonus round Pidcock: I might be stretching a bit, but he has the profile to win all 5 monuments

Those are the profiles that could/can strive for 5 in their time. With eddy obviously having done it.

Regular classic riders such as MVP, WVA or more historic figures like Boonen, Museeuw, Cancellara are very good in Northern classics but lack the versatility (and climbing legs) to win more then RVV, PR and perhaps MSR. There's nothing wrong with that. I would rather watch MVP race CX in winter, RVV and PR in the spring, fool around in the TdF in July and aim for WC in September. That's enough right?

stonerider

- bonus round Pidcock: I might be stretching a bit, but he has the profile to win all 5 monuments
I don't think Pidcock has enough weight and raw watts to win the flat and bumpy Paris Roubaix. Even Pog admits he'd need to gain some weight/muscle for that race and he weighs more than Pidcock.

Sandisfan

AmRacer

MVP is without a doubt the best classic riders of this age but to strive for 5 it's better to be a climber/puncher that focusses on one day races than a classic rider that tries to become a better climber. If that makes any sence.

Lombardy will always be a climber race and classic riders stand little to no chance. Liège is a climber race to but because of flat finish classic riders stand a fair chance (such as WVA or MVP). Don't underestimate the RVV neither. It has more altitude meters than some mountain stages in grand tours.

Point & examples
- Gilbert: Puncher first with a refocuss on Northern classics towards the end of his carreer
- Valverde: top tier Valverde would have been perfect to try for all 5 if he wasn't focussed on winning Fleche Walloon like 29 times or so
- Superstars that are GC/climbers first such as Poggy, Merckx (and maybe Remco)
- bonus round Pidcock: I might be stretching a bit, but he has the profile to win all 5 monuments

Those are the profiles that could/can strive for 5 in their time. With eddy obviously having done it.

Regular classic riders such as MVP, WVA or more historic figures like Boonen, Museeuw, Cancellara are very good in Northern classics but lack the versatility (and climbing legs) to win more then RVV, PR and perhaps MSR. There's nothing wrong with that. I would rather watch MVP race CX in winter, RVV and PR in the spring, fool around in the TdF in July and aim for WC in September. That's enough right?
Pog is the best classic rider.

Salvarani