He is doing Slovenia before the Tour. The route has been revealed two weeks ago. The race will consist od five stages (one more than in previous years). A sprint stage to begin with, a hilly stage 2, two mountin stages, one with a hill-top finish and the other with a downhill finish. And then a TT of about 20 kilometers to finish it off. I think Roglič should easily win the race, especially with a flat TT on the last day. And the winner of (possibly) three stage races before the Tour doesn't just intentionally lose time there... I hope... If he is out of it by the end of week one (with cobbles, TTT and potential crashes), then by all means, lose some more time and go for stage wins. But if he somehow comes out of the first nine days somewhat close to the top, then anything could happen (if he holds or even improves the shape he is in now).