Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Extinction]

Let's be honest...Patrick knows what Remco is capable of and an appearance at the Tour is what his sponsors may be paying for. If there was a serious sponsor bonus to Patrick for winning the Tour he'd also have negotiated enough cash to compete for talent with the Big Two to provide even better support. He'd also be kicked out of Belgium for letting Remco go to Visma so he needs to keep Remco happy for what he can win and keep undue pressure and expectations in check. Remco is excellent but he may still be the late bloomer for the effort required.

The main issue is the size of the gap to Pogacar fundamentally. He needs to up his game considerably, but it's not like his level is just sort of up there. He's a generational talent, except he's in a rough generation. And who is to say Pogacar won't up his game for the next several years? Imagine that, the carnage. I'd say Remco has to go to the Tour for the next three years and see how it goes. If Pog continues to be unreachable, then do the Giro, to try and win pink, or Vuelta as well. The problem is, what if Tadej continues to utterly dominante from Paris-Nice to Lombardia? And this isn't just a problem for Evenepoel. There would likely be a rebelion. Indeed, Pog himself seems to be aware of this in a sort of tragi-comic and grotesque way. I bet Don Patrick doesn't have restful nights, unless he's approached Mauro to ask what gives? I'm talking purely from the business and investments point of view.

 

[Luthor]

That was from the link that Luthor posted. Here is the table I was referencing. I think they didn't include some countries in this table (Germany for example) because the data was somewhat incomplete? They did include TDF numbers for those other countries, however, in other parts of the document. For example, they talk about the US viewership is about 300k per day for the TDF. I am pretty sure it is close to nil (or quite minimal) for all the other races. I believe the Germany TDF numbers were around 1,500,000.

Thanks for the link. That was very informative.

It appears that the TDF has approximately 5X the viewership in the key 8 European countries (Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, Denmark, Flanders, Netherlands, Wallonia) and 8X globally than the other grand tours have. But viewership is not the only mark of prestige. I would also look at who was also on the podium and in the top 10.

Giro is not even in your list and it has 2 million from Italy alone where is more watched than TDF. Vuelta also has n.a. in 3 countries including Italy and France and pips TDF in Spain. 8X and 5X numbers you mention are nowhere near truth. it even says in the doc itself if you actually want to read it

Because in Italy the Giro d’Italia has higher TV ratings as well, of the 8 countries in the table the Tour de France is the best‐watched cycling race in only 3: Denmark, France and the Netherlands. This comes as no surprise since this was the case in 2018 as well

 

[Berniece]

I bet Don Patrick doesn't have restful nights, unless he's approached Mauro to ask what gives? I'm talking purely from the business and investments point of view.

I think PL isn’t that faded by it, with the results Evenepoel rode past season he will be happy. Double Olympic Gold winner

 

[Extinction]

I think PL isn’t that faded by it, with the results Evenepoel rode past season he will be happy. Double Olympic Gold winner

But PL said the Olympics are only a partial compensation, because not a sponsorship team thing. He wants Lieges, Tours, some other classics and GTs, etc., with an Evenepoel on the payroll.

 

[Red Rick]

What is up with everyone granting Remco the status as third best GC rider over Roglic? Because he looked better on a couple stages in the Tour this year? Come on.

It's just taking like 2 stages in the TdF as only data point while ignoring essentially the last 2 full seasons, including ignoring the last GC stage they did race in that Tour before Roglic crashed out.

Like, sure if you wanna argue they're similar level, fine by me. But if we're gonna put one clearly ahead of the other, I'm taking the one that won 2 GTs and 3 WT stage races over the guy who's only WT stage race win in the last 2 years was UAE Tour where he reversed spanked Adam Yates

 

[Berniece]

It's just taking like 2 stages in the TdF as only data point while ignoring essentially the last 2 full seasons, including ignoring the last GC stage they did race in that Tour before Roglic crashed out.

The one where Roglic blew himself up, crashed and was still given the same time as Evenepoel?

Yeah that really showed Roglic was better… /s

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's just taking like 2 stages in the TdF as only data point while ignoring essentially the last 2 full seasons, including ignoring the last GC stage they did race in that Tour before Roglic crashed out.

Like, sure if you wanna argue they're similar level, fine by me. But if we're gonna put one clearly ahead of the other, I'm taking the one that won 2 GTs and 3 WT stage races over the guy who's only WT stage race win in the last 2 years was UAE Tour where he reversed spanked Adam Yates

You nailed it. Remco is the most overrated rider right now when we talk about GTs. Is he good? Of course he is! But let's not pretend he is anywhere close to Vingegaard/Pogacar and he still needs to prove he is capable of beating a 100% Roglic. I would like to see both of them in the Giro just to clarify who is the best.

 

[Red Rick]

The one where Roglic blew himself up, crashed and was still given the same time as Evenepoel?

Yeah that really showed Roglic was better… /s

We live in a fantastical world where getting dropped on the Galibier and coming back on the descent matters everything but getting dropped on Puy Mary and getting back in the descent is completely irrelevant.

 

[Berniece]

We live in a fantastical world where getting dropped on the Galibier and coming back on the descent matters everything but getting dropped on Puy Mary and getting back in the descent is completely irrelevant.

On Galibier Roglic was barely able to follow Rodriguez, Landa, etc, while Evenepoel decided to ride his own pace on Puy Mary.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It was pretty obvious to anyone who watched the race that Roglic came in undercooked. I'm not saying Remco was necessarily in prime condition, but Roglic was getting better each stage after starting badly. I don't know where he would have ended up by the end of the Tour relative to Remco, but I do know that these are their notable GC results in Grand Tours and top 7 weeklong stage races for the past few years:

Primoz Roglic

• 2021
  • 1st in Vuelta
  • 1st in Basque Country
  • 15th in Paris-Nice after crashing, won 3 stages and in lead before
• 2022
  • 1st in Paris-Nice
  • 1st in Dauphine
• 2023
  • 1st in Giro
  • 1st in Tirreno-Adriatica
  • 1st in Catalunya
  • 3rd in Vuelta due to team decision
• 2024
  • 1st in Dauphine
  • 1st in Vuelta

Remco Evenepoel

• 2021
  • None
• 2022
  • 1st in Vuelta
• 2023
  • None
• 2024
  • 3rd in Tour

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Remco >>> Roglic in classics
Remco > Roglic in ITTs
Roglic > Remco in stage races

 

[KoopaCycling]

At the moment. But the reason why people say Remco now third is cause they see the pendulum between the 2 swinging. More so then Vingegaard and Pogacar, Evenepoel has needed to beat Roglic these past few years. And most feel that Remco is slowly not only reaching Roglic his current level but surpassing it.

I'd say Remco was not quite as good as Roglic in 2022 but finding his feet with the big boys. Remco was almost Roglic his equal in 2023 (Catalunya battle comes to mind), but Roglic was still more crafty. In 2024 it feels like Remco has finally pushed ahead of Roglic. Time will tell.

 

[Berniece]

It was pretty obvious to anyone who watched the race that Roglic came in undercooked. I'm not saying Remco was necessarily in prime condition, but Roglic was getting better each stage after starting badly. I don't know where he would have ended up by the end of the Tour relative to Remco, but I do know that these are their notable GC results in Grand Tours and top 7 weeklong stage races for the past few years:

Primoz Roglic

• 2021
  • 1st in Vuelta
  • 1st in Basque Country
  • 15th in Paris-Nice after crashing, won 3 stages and in lead before
• 2022
  • 1st in Paris-Nice
  • 1st in Dauphine
• 2023
  • 1st in Giro
  • 1st in Tirreno-Adriatica
  • 1st in Catalunya
  • 3rd in Vuelta due to team decision
• 2024
  • 1st in Dauphine
  • 1st in Vuelta

Remco Evenepoel

• 2021
  • None
• 2022
  • 1st in Vuelta
• 2023
  • None
• 2024
  • 3rd in Tour

And a 3rd in the TDF was more impressive than 1st in the Vuelta, at least this year.

 

[houtdffan]

The main issue is the size of the gap to Pogacar fundamentally. He needs to up his game considerably, but it's not like his level is just sort of up there. He's a generational talent, except he's in a rough generation. And who is to say Pogacar won't up his game for the next several years? Imagine that, the carnage. I'd say Remco has to go to the Tour for the next three years and see how it goes. If Pog continues to be unreachable, then do the Giro, to try and win pink, or Vuelta as well. The problem is, what if Tadej continues to utterly dominante from Paris-Nice to Lombardia? And this isn't just a problem for Evenepoel. There would likely be a rebelion. Indeed, Pog himself seems to be aware of this in a sort of tragi-comic and grotesque way. I bet Don Patrick doesn't have restful nights, unless he's approached Mauro to ask what gives? I'm talking purely from the business and investments point of view.

he needs to not get injured early in the season.

Any time an alien gets hurt early, it costs them 7-10 minutes in the tour. Was the same for Pog in 2023 and Remco/Vingo this past year

No way Remco and Vingo finish 7 and 9:30 down if they were not injured early in the season. Remco likely finishes 3 minutes behind a close Pog/Vingo battle, and probably 45 minutes ahead of 4th in that scenario (the racing would have been far harder from much longer out)

 

[Berniece]

he needs to not get injured early in the season.

Any time an alien gets hurt early, it costs them 7-10 minutes in the tour. Was the same for Pog in 2023 and Remco/Vingo this past year

No way Remco and Vingo finish 7 and 9:30 down if they were not injured early in the season. Remco likely finishes 3 minutes behind a close Pog/Vingo battle, and probably 45 minutes ahead of 4th in that scenario (the racing would have been far harder from much longer out)

While I do think not getting injured would’ve helped, not sure it would get him that close to Pogacar and Vingegaard. I think general further development as a rider will get him to close that gap

 

[Extinction]

he needs to not get injured early in the season.

Any time an alien gets hurt early, it costs them 7-10 minutes in the tour. Was the same for Pog in 2023 and Remco/Vingo this past year

No way Remco and Vingo finish 7 and 9:30 down if they were not injured early in the season. Remco likely finishes 3 minutes behind a close Pog/Vingo battle, and probably 45 minutes ahead of 4th in that scenario (the racing would have been far harder from much longer out)

I think this is optimistic, more like a couple of minutes less down. The fall was a disruption, not a total destructive factor, or else he would have finished 63rd.

It seemed that he was coached to ride up the mountains at his own TT pace and not respond to the accellerations of Pogacar, but also Vingegaard. A wise move when you are only hunting the podium, which is all he was ever going to do, crash or not (given what Pog displayed before). It's not wise though if you actually want to win. The difference was too big. Soudal-D must have already know that with his training numbers. How much longer can they go on such calculations, essentially going in defeated?

 

[Peyroteo94]

he needs to not get injured early in the season.

Any time an alien gets hurt early, it costs them 7-10 minutes in the tour. Was the same for Pog in 2023 and Remco/Vingo this past year

No way Remco and Vingo finish 7 and 9:30 down if they were not injured early in the season. Remco likely finishes 3 minutes behind a close Pog/Vingo battle, and probably 45 minutes ahead of 4th in that scenario (the racing would have been far harder from much longer out)

You live in a bubble if you think Remco is jsut 3 minutes worse than Pogacar in a GT.

 

[Extinction]

At the moment. But the reason why people say Remco now third is cause they see the pendulum between the 2 swinging. More so then Vingegaard and Pogacar, Evenepoel has needed to beat Roglic these past few years. And most feel that Remco is slowly not only reaching Roglic his current level but surpassing it.

I'd say Remco was not quite as good as Roglic in 2022 but finding his feet with the big boys. Remco was almost Roglic his equal in 2023 (Catalunya battle comes to mind), but Roglic was still more crafty. In 2024 it feels like Remco has finally pushed ahead of Roglic. Time will tell.

This is a good assessment, considering also the age difference, for which in theory Remco should get stronger, while Primoz weaker (or in any case not get stronger). Yet Roglic was deposed at Jumbo-Visma by Vingegaard, Vingegaard by Pogacar at the last Tour; so Remco has much still to scale on the mountain. Would Roglic have gone faster in the Tour then a third place Evenepoel? Judging by his level the first week, no.

 

[Berniece]

You live in a bubble if you think Remco is jsut 3 minutes worse than Pogacar in a GT.

I think it’s 5, but it’s a bit ironic you talk about bubbles about someone else

 

[FroomeWagon]

Giro is not even in your list and it has 2 million from Italy alone where is more watched than TDF. Vuelta also has n.a. in 3 countries including Italy and France and pips TDF in Spain. 8X and 5X numbers you mention are nowhere near truth. it even says in the doc itself if you actually want to read it

I did read it. I also saw that the actual TDF numbers are higher than those in the table. The reason I linked the table was because someone had asked where I came up with the countries I had. Furthermore, there was no other place in that document where it compared viewership across races in one succinct table (if you know of one please link and I will apologize in advance).

This whole "Giro and Vuelta are races that carry almost the same prestige as the Tour" argument seems to be coming from a small subset of Remco fans that appear to be afraid that Remco can't compete against Pogi and a lesser extent Vinegaard in the GC's and consequently want him to go to a less competitive race so they can delight in a victory and then suggest its almost as prestigious as the Tour. News flash, nobody believes that.

Nobody believes Roglic's victory in the Vuelta last year even remotely is in the same category had he instead won the Tour. In fact, it appears Roglic won the Vuelta with a broken back (kudos to him) ... but what does that say about the competition in the race?

If Remco wants to be considered one of the greats of all time in GT (and I do believe he wants that), he needs to go to the Tour and compete against the very best and win. On the other hand, if he just wants to have a "good" GT legacy, he should select between the Giro and Vuelta each year (depending on whether Pogi and Vinge race either) and stack a bunch of GC wins in those races.

 

[FroomeWagon]

What is up with everyone granting Remco the status as third best GC rider over Roglic? Because he looked better on a couple stages in the Tour this year? Come on.

Whether it is right or not, the gambling markets appear to agree as well. Here are the current odds for next years Tour.

 

[KoopaCycling]

I did read it. I also saw that the actual TDF numbers are higher than those in the table. The reason I linked the table was because someone had asked where I came up with the countries I had. Furthermore, there was no other place in that document where it compared viewership across races in one succinct table (if you know of one please link and I will apologize in advance).

This whole "Giro and Vuelta are races that carry almost the same prestige as the Tour" argument seems to be coming from a small subset of Remco fans that appear to be afraid that Remco can't compete against Pogi and a lesser extent Vinegaard in the GC's and consequently want him to go to a less competitive race so they can delight in a victory and then suggest its almost as prestigious as the Tour. News flash, nobody believes that.

Nobody believes Roglic's victory in the Vuelta last year even remotely is in the same category had he instead won the Tour. In fact, it appears Roglic won the Vuelta with a broken back (kudos to him) ... but what does that say about the competition in the race?

If Remco wants to be considered one of the greats of all time in GT (and I do believe he wants that), he needs to go to the Tour and compete against the very best and win. On the other hand, if he just wants to have a "good" GT legacy, he should select between the Giro and Vuelta each year (depending on whether Pogi and Vinge race either) and stack a bunch of GC wins in those races.

Nah, your just stating your own biased views as facts. Demeaning others. You purposely ignore why I think he should check & compare the parcours of the giro and tour each year. And upon seeing the parcours decide which of the 2 he should put his main focus. Never said he should not go to the tour. Only said that if the giro suits his talents more he should choose to make that his main focus. I'm certain he would need to fight off Pogacar or Vingegaard regardless of which of the 2 he'll chose. So nothing to do with being afraid Remco won't be able to compete.

Giro is almost as prestigious as the tour. Vuelta not so much. If Tour is Roubaix, then Giro is Flanders. Whereas Vuelta more like E3 or Wevelgem if you catch my drift. Obviously i'm taking it to the absurd to make clear my point. I actually think quit high of the vuelta. As it's the 3rd biggest GC race of the year. It's not cause everyone else jumps on the media bandwagon (armstrong, netflix, ...) that i'll forget about giro's history.

Your last parapgraphe is again missing the point. I'm not saying he should not race the tour. And just race vuelta or giro. In fact having already won the vuelta he should probably only race that GT as a secondary option. The choice isn't between giro and vuelta. But between tour and giro. And i feel he should make that decision every year by checking out the parcours. If the Giro suit him more, he should race the giro. If the tour suits him more, he should race the tour.

Somehow this simple logic can't be fathomed by you, and instead you go back to remco fans afraid. Tour is biggest. He should therefore race Tour.

 

[FroomeWagon]

Giro is almost as prestigious as the tour.

If you believe that, then I don't think we are going to share common ground. I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with it.

I agree that the Giro course might be much more difficult than the Tour, but the level of competition, on average, isn't close. We agree to disagree.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Giro is nowhere near the Tour when we talk about popularity. You can't based your opinion in wishful thinkings. Just take a look to audience, media coverage, sponsors and you will know cycling is almost all about the Tour (talking about money).
It is a shame, Giro is my favourite race!

 

[houtdffan]

While I do think not getting injured would’ve helped, not sure it would get him that close to Pogacar and Vingegaard. I think general further development as a rider will get him to close that gap

he was close to Vingo. 2:30 off is not exactly a big gap over 3 weeks