Question The Tour 2025 without the mutants: who would win?

[Krzysztof_O]

Let's have a bit of alternate reality fun (it can become an actual one though). Imagine Pogacar and Vingegaard are our of the Tour for some reasons (i.e. due to crashes in week 1). Suddenly a lot of options are possible. Who would win the race of humans?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

My vote is Roglic due to his GT successes but TBH I'm not even sure what kind of form he will show at the Tour following the Giro debacle.

 

[P4rthen0n]

Considering everybody in top shape, I would say the front runner would be Remco, followed by João Almeida.
Roglic might still be strong enough to win (maybe even the strongest of this bunch in isolation), but he crashes too much.

 

[Berniece]

Assuming both are out from stage 1, so that Jorgenson and Almeida have free play from the get go, it'll be:

1. Evenepoel
2. Jorgenson
3. Almeida
4. Roglic
5. A. Yates
6. Mas
7. C. Rodriguez
8. Skjelmose
9. Lipowitz

 

[Cookster15]

Reading the comments in the Pogi thread its like Remco doesn't exist (only Pogi/Vinge and Roglic). Remco was very impressive last year and we should only expect him to be a little stronger in 2025. I'm picking Remco as best of the rest.

 

[Oldman]

Assuming both are out from stage 1, so that Jorgenson and Almeida have free play from the get go, it'll be:

1. Evenepoel
2. Jorgenson
3. Almeida
4. Roglic
5. A. Yates
6. Mas
7. C. Rodriguez
8. Skjelmose
9. Lipowitz

I'd move Evenepoel down 2 and Roglic to 2nd. I think Jorgenson could take them all with JV support.

 

[Rackham]

Reading the comments in the Pogi thread its like Remco doesn't exist (only Pogi/Vinge and Roglic). Remco was very impressive last year and we should only expect him to be a little stronger in 2025. I'm picking Remco as best of the rest.

For the sake of fairness we'll assume everyone arrives with their best form (i.e. we don't extrapolate the Dauphiné or the Giro into these predictions), at which point it's a toss up between Evenepoel and Rog.

Without top form for those two, all those other riders are serious contenders. But I'd take Rog and Evenepoel with their best legs over the rest any day. I'd give a slight edge to Rog due to Loze. I think that climb has some Angliru in it and he'll do very well there.

 

[Gigs_98]

A little off topic but the fact that of the five people you mentioned 2 are teammates of the mutants while two more are their own teammates is very problematic.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I voted for Almeida because Soudal looks awful in the mountains.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I will cast my vote in the main thread.

 

[Cookster15]

For the sake of fairness we'll assume everyone arrives with their best form (i.e. we don't extrapolate the Dauphiné or the Giro into these predictions), at which point it's a toss up between Evenepoel and Rog.

Without top form for those two, all those other riders are serious contenders. But I'd take Rog and Evenepoel with their best legs over the rest any day. I'd give a slight edge to Rog due to Loze. I think that climb has some Angliru in it and he'll do very well there.

Generally agree but for one factor: age. Remco is only 25 and should be improving if he is uninjured and healthy. Roglic is now 35. I hope I'm wrong about Roglic but fear I'm not.

 

[noob]

My heart says Roglic but head says Remco no competition. Roglic and Almeida to fight out silver and bronze.

No matter how those 3 places themselves in top 3 I would cheer.

 

[jmdirt]

The thread title got me thinking about me, but then your OP made it seem like it had to be an actual current racer (still mutants) so...

 

[Devil's Elbow]

1. Evenepoel
2. Roglic (if he stays on his bike for once)
3. Almeida

Judging by some comments here, Jorgenson needs to be included if we ever do another most overrated rider thread.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I could see myself win if there weren't any mountain stages, but race organisers are sadly flat shaming constantly these days.

I've voted for Jorgenson, as I expect he will enter mutant territory soon.

 

[houtdffan]

have to include Remco in the alien division. Afterall, he was more than 10 minutes ahead of 4th place. He was closer to Pog than Almieda was closer to him.

Take those 3 out, Almieda would win, in an utterly boring tour

 

[jmdirt]

have to include Remco in the alien division. Afterall, he was more than 10 minutes ahead of 4th place. He was closer to Pog than Almieda was closer to him.

Take those 3 out, Almieda would win, in an utterly boring tour

I have trouble with not considering RE one of the mutants too.

 

[Gratemans]

If he would stay on the bike, Roglic. For second place I think it'd be very close between Almeida and Remco, assuming the aliens would be gone early and Almeida could ride for himself.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I don't even know if there is a firm delineating line between "mutants" and "humans" but rather a cascade of a few percentage points of differential. For example Pogacar>Vingegaard>Remco>Roglic>Almeida>Yates>the other Yates>Mas>Jorgenson>Rodriguez>Skjelmose>Lipowitz etc.

 

[Hugh Januss]

have to include Remco in the alien division. Afterall, he was more than 10 minutes ahead of 4th place. He was closer to Pog than Almieda was closer to him.

Take those 3 out, Almieda would win, in an utterly boring tour

Only if Roglic crashes, he otherwise seems to have Almeida's number.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Assuming no crashes and at peak form:
Evenepoel
Almeida
Roglic

I think Almeida has improved and Roglic will start to decline. A year ago i would probably have them swapped.

 

[Rackham]

Generally agree but for one factor: age. Remco is only 25 and should be improving if he is uninjured and healthy. Roglic is now 35. I hope I'm wrong about Roglic but fear I'm not.

If we're going to say riders are at their best level (and infer that Evenepoel has his 2024 TdF climbing form again despite his travails in the Dauphiné), then it's only fair that we don't send Rog to the nursing home and age him suddenly just to ensure he's beaten.

IMO he won't have suddenly aged since March and Catalunya so I think he's fine - for the time being at least.

 

[TrekCyclist]

according to the bookmakers it is
Evenepoel
then Almeida
then Roglic / Lipowitz.

 

[Red Rick]

My vote is Roglic due to his GT successes but TBH I'm not even sure what kind of form he will show at the Tour following the Giro debacle.

Did you miss all of the last Vuelta's by any chance?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Did you miss all of the last Vuelta's by any chance?

Nah, that's why I actually voted for Roglic. I still have doubts, he had like zillion crashes during the Giro + some antibiotics later.