Tom Danielson's Tour Chances

[Alpe d'Huez]

Tom Danielson is riding the Tour for the first time in his life. As everyone knows he's had a very up/down career. Right when he's been touted as a future GT winner, he has gotten hurt, dropped out of races for inexplicable reasons, or just tanked. But he's also been written off several times (including by myself) and bounced back. What do you suppose his chances are in this, his first Tour?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Gonna either be top 10, or domestiquing for Dave Zabriskie's top 10.

JV always puts somebody unexpected up there. Hesjedal's already done it, Dan Martin looks like too talented a climber to be a surprise, but I think Danielson has fallen off the radar enough with injuries and disappointments that he might fit the bill.

 

[AlejandroValverde]

It depends who will be the real leader in Garmin. Tommy, Vandevelde or Hesjedal.

I bet he can complete TdF in top10 unless he lose any time on stages like stage 1. Also TTT gives him occasion to improve and have better start before mountains. He has been nicely ridding Suisse and if the form will be slightly better in July, top10 is everything he can achieve.

 

[Ibanez]

I fear he will do a VdV and crash out on stage 3 or something. But this being Garmin at the tour, he could just as easily ride to a fairly anonymous top 10.

My guess is he rides well by following the wheels in the Pyrenees and then fades in the Alps to finish in the top 20. I can't see him going in any of the breakaways unless he does lose a lot of time.

 

[hrotha]

Nothing he does, for better or worse, will surprise me. I could see him doing Garmin's patented surprise GC top 10 thing*, I could see him being up there and then tanking spectacularly, undone by his own nerves, and I could see him simply not being good enough (he's not very consistent, but he's been in good shape since Romandie, so how longer can he keep it up?).

I've always been a fan of Danielson, even though I like to make jokes about him every now and then, and I'd be extremely happy if he goes well and finishes in the top 10. Or, if the gods are extremely generous, he might win a stage.

*But let's be clear here, it'd be much less of a surprise than Vande Velde in 2008, Wiggins in 2009 and Hesjedal in 2010. Danielson has shown more GT pedigree than all of them.

 

[jaylew]

Well, if the Garmin trend continues, he (or Martin if he makes the team) would have to be top 10, right? 11-25 is probably more likely but a top 10 isn't completely out of the question. He used to have problems keeping himself near the front of the peloton, but appears to have gotten a bit better at that. I hope he does well.

 

[Race Radio]

It depends who will be the real leader in Garmin. Tommy, Vandevelde or Hesjedal.

I bet he can complete TdF in top10 unless he lose any time on stages like stage 1. Also TTT gives him occasion to improve and have better start before mountains. He has been nicely ridding Suisse and if the form will be slightly better in July, top10 is everything he can achieve.

Right now Tom is riding better then the others. The top 10 is wide open. Some luck and he could make it.

He has finished in the top 10 of the Vuelta twice so he certainly can pull if together when he is on form.

 

[jaylew]

He has finished in the top 10 of the Vuelta twice so he certainly can pull if together when he is on form.

Three times, including last year's 9th.

 

[jens_attacks]

he's an enigma so who knows?i'd say a top 10 is possible but a top 20 more likely.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It very much depends on the team strategy when it comes to GC.

Garmin will have Vande Velde, Hesjedal and Danielson. They may also have Martin or Le Mevel. They may have a strict pecking order amongst these riders or they may wait to see how everyone is going.

If Le Mevel goes I assume it will certainly be in a mountain domestique's role. He rode the Giro hard. That might give Danielson a little more freedom to ride his own race.

Radioshack are apparently going with four protected GC riders, which is nuts in my opinion, but at least the rest of the team is basically there to work for them. The rest of the Garmin team will be there to work for Farrar and Hushovd. Nobody outside of these three (or four riders) will be sticking around in the mountains for long. If Le Mevel isn't there and if there is a preordained bottle fetcher amongst Garmin's climbers, it would really have to be Danielson. Vande Velde and Hesjedal have better records in GTs and, even if Martin is there he's a potential stage winner in a way that Danielson is emphatically not.

Now Garmin may be crazy enough to just let their climbers/GC men rider for themselves and then assign domestique roles as guys fall out of contention, but I'd be surprised. So, basically, I think that Danielson's race is likely to be compromised by being the mountain bottle fetcher. On the other hand, it may not be as badly compromised as all that given that Garmin are hardly going to be trying to control the mountain stages from the front.

To get to the point:

1) If he's allowed to ride for himself and doesn't get injured: Top 15
2) If he has to work a bit for others: Top 20.
3) If he has to work a whole lot for others, eg helping pull back breaks for the sprinters: Quite a way down.

Nicolas Roche was a bit better than him in the Vuelta last year when both were undisputed leaders, and Roche had already rode the Tour. Assuming that Danielson can up his game a little, Roche's position in last year's Tour looks like a reasonable guess.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Also, while I would love to see Danielson win a stage, I just don't see how it could happen.

He's not going to out climb the very top climbers, he's not going to win an ITT, he's obviously not going to win a sprint or a Gilbert-type finish... but at the same time, he's much too good for anyone to let up the road unless he's having a miserable tour and has lost a ton of time.

 

[hrotha]

Also, while I would love to see Danielson win a stage, I just don't see how it could happen.

He's not going to out climb the very top climbers, he's not going to win an ITT, he's obviously not going to win a sprint or a Gilbert-type finish... but at the same time, he's much too good for anyone to let up the road unless he's having a miserable tour and has lost a ton of time.

I'm more concerned with the fact that he doesn't exactly have any stage-hunting instincts, so he would need to get in a breakaway in a fairly tough stage with a hard enough finish and just be the strongest there. He doesn't need to be that far down the GC to be allowed to do something like that - plenty of people have got themselves into the top 10 that way.

 

[ansimi]

I'll go with "contend for a stage" but I'm talking about the TTT.

I don't know if Gamin is a favourite for that stage but bringing TD definitely helps their chances and they'll be in contention.

I think it's a good choice. He's earned it. His form's probably peaked to early and he's prone to illness but he should be very useful in the early part of the Tour.

 

[centurycycler]

Danielson in total support

he'll be a domestique for VV or Hesjedal's hopes for GC. Interesting to watch him drag those 2 up the mnt.s. I don't think JV would let him ride if the thought is he will 86 the race 2 weeks in like he's done on the Vuelta.

 

[roundabout]

I have feeling that he needed to show results to make the Tour team so he won't be at his best in July. So I suppose options 2 and 4 are the closest with 4 more likely.

 

[jaylew]

I'm more concerned with the fact that he doesn't exactly have any stage-hunting instincts, so he would need to get in a breakaway in a fairly tough stage with a hard enough finish and just be the strongest there. He doesn't need to be that far down the GC to be allowed to do something like that - plenty of people have got themselves into the top 10 that way.

Sounds just like that Vuelta stage win in '06.

 

[Orvieto]

I went with Top 20. It's the Garmin way. The protected rider loses time early in the race and somebody else suddenly becomes the GC contender.
I don't understand why teams like Garmin look at a Top 10 as a goal. I mean, I understand it, but it frustrates me. Racing for 7th is hardly inspirational. Radioshack look to be in a similar position with 3 or 4 riders who could potentially finish top 10, but no-one who could win and the podium being a long shot. As a spectator I'd much rather these teams went for stage wins rather than playing the game of who can get dropped from the lead group last.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Either top 10, or total fluke (sickness, crash, out of form, you name it)

 

[Mellow Velo]

Tom Danielson a contender?
What's happened to Bro Deal, I thought he'd be all over this thread?
Or, have I missed something?
(Imo, slightly less chance of a result than that short, bald Swiss cheese)

 

[Angliru]

He'll be the chief domestique for Hesjedal and CVV. As such he won't have many opportunities for himself unless Vaughters sends him away in a break. Then depending on circumstances he could get lucky and get a stage win. It remains to be seen if he can hold it together for the 3 weeks. He seems the nervous type and this being his first time at the event that he coveted for his entire career, he's likely to be a basketcase.

That said he did show good form in the TdS thus Vaughters finally giving him his big opportunity. I think it wouldn't be wise of Vaughters to put any pressure on him. Let him be support for Ryder and Christian and just see how he does with no big expectations other than his support in the mountains. If he's still riding strong in the 3rd week and Hesjedal and CVV are not riding up to expectations or hopes, then loosen the reigns and see what happens. At that point they'll have nothing to lose.

 

[profff]

he will lost strength in the flat stages and my be time too, as he does not know how to position himself in the peloton.
he has not the class to stay with the best in the mountain stages.
he will be god in tt.
he is too weak in the mental to stand the tour pression

imho he will fail almost completely

obviously that is an opinion and not an hope.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I don't understand why teams like Garmin look at a Top 10 as a goal. I mean, I understand it, but it frustrates me. Racing for 7th is hardly inspirational.

It's a product of the greater and greater media and sponsor focus on the Tour as compared to other races, and even within the Tour the focus slides ever more towards GC placings and away from individual stage wins. It's a pain in the balls for the cycling fan, but it's commercially driven.

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

As a rule of thumb I judge a contenders chances based on the size of his jaw compared to his face.. Tommy D has one of the weakest jaws in the peloton! It doesn't look good for him..

 

[Anonymous]

As a rule of thumb I judge a contenders chances based on the size of his jaw compared to his face.. Tommy D has one of the weakest jaws in the peloton! It doesn't look good for him..

Big Jawge Hincapie then is the winningest TdF rider evvaaaa.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

top 20. he could do better, but being 1st Tour something like top 10 might be asking a lot... especially with his history there are questions. I hope he does not have bad luck and just does his best.