Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Salvarani said:
A TT at the end of GT also comes down to who has the most left in the tank. Not just ability to TT well.
That is very much true, but that takes absolutely nothing away from my point that Dumoulin prefers hilly tt's and generally takes much more time in them than in flat high speed TT's, and generally also performs much better than in flat itt.
Yeah that's pretty much true and is the main reason I estimated Dumoulin's possible gain around 30 sec. Last year a rested Dumoulin put 57 seconds into Roglic and 1:21 into Froome (and even more to everyone else including a bunch of specialists) in the WC ITT which was a hilly 31 km ITT just like the one the riders will tackle this time.
Dumoulin loves the hilly ITTs and he himself said multiple times that he doesn't really like the pan flat high speed ones.

So one can even say that 30 sec is a pessimistic estimate from Tom's perspective but I factored in the fatigue from the Giro and the Tour.
 
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del1962 said:
Gigs_98 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.
Froome beat Dumoulin in 2016 Hilly ITT but was beaten by him in flat ITT that same tour, Froome prefers hilly aswell
I think it will come down to who is in better condition and has more in reserve IMHO.
The last TT of the Tour is usually that way.

Later note: I see somebody beat me to it.
 
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Walkman said:
kiszol said:
The four best TTers from the GC guys are the four best climbers as well. Very strange! What are the pure climbers doing?
The level is very high as well, if we look at the climbing times.
As for Tom, he has a fantastic race and without the stage 6 problem he would be in pole position now. As for the rest of the race how can he win?
In my opinion, Thomas, Froome and Roglic are on a very similar level for the upcoming TT, and Tom can beat all of them by an approximately 30 sec margin. That means that he needs to find 1:20 on Thomas while he can't lose more than 20 sec to Froome and more than 1:20 to Roglic.
We have three stages with downhill finishes left: Carcassone, Bagnéres-de-Luchon and Laruns. Tom is a great descender and he can try another attack in one of these descents but Froome is damn good too and Thomas is not bad either. I don't really think that he can win the race with a big attack downhill. Stage 15 and 16 are not that hard, I don't expect differences between the 4 leaders in those stages. Stage 19 could be a different story, but still not that big of a chance there. So the big chance for Tom is obviously Stage 17 with the Portet mountain top finish. Dumolin showed that he is in excellent form and is one of the best climbers in the peloton. Still, winning the time needed on such a hard stage after 2 and a half weeks of racing with the Giro already in his legs. I would love to be optimistic but I don't really see it happening.

In my opininon the only realistic way for Tom to win the Tour is Thomas cracking big time on stage 17 or 19. in that case all he needs to do is follow Froomey's wheel. Not that that is such an easy thing to do. Anyway, if this won't happen I still hope Tom won't crack and he can finish on the podium. That would be a super great result for him. He would be a big favourite to win next year even if he won't progress further which I very much doubt.

An interesting note: Geschke almost got within the TOP20 with his break today and with some luck he cen be in the TOP20 comes Stage 17 so maybe he can start from the same group as the leaders. Not that I think that has big importance but it wouldn't hurt for sure.
If Dumoulin does not crack in the third week, it will be one of the most ridiculous ride of all time. The Giro-Tour double has not been attempted often (lately) because it is so hard and some of the best riders have a failed at it, despite heavy clinic associations. And now Dumoulin is supposed be in the running for a Tour title after finishing second in the giro by outclimbing the likes of Quintana, Bardet and Landa?!
Excepted that Dumoulin's situation just can't be considered as the same as the Quintana/Contador Giro/Tour attempts.
Makes no sense to imply it can't be done cause other have failed it before. Two reasons for that:

- there is one more week between the Giro and the Tour this year
- Dumoulin's approach has nothing to do at all with the ones of Quintana and Contador. While Contador and Quintana raced a lot in the first half of the year and actually were competitive in the races they entered in (Contador even raced and won the Route du Sud between the 2 GTs...), Dumoulin had very few racedays. If you race heavily in the first third of the year and then want to do Giro/Tour, no surprise it's getting hard at the end of the Tour. On the contrary, if you focus only on doing Giro/Tour, you're far more likely to be competitive.

It's your right to consider it's impossible to be competitive in both the Giro and the Tour. But refering to the past as a prove of that impossibility while ignoring the elements of différence between those cases is not a valid argument
 

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Dekker_Tifosi said:
del1962 said:
Gigs_98 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.
Froome beat Dumoulin in 2016 Hilly ITT but was beaten by him in flat ITT that same tour, Froome prefers hilly aswell

Wrong. Dumoulin was beaten by Froome in a pure climb TT. That wasn't a hilly TT.

For christ sake Aru and Bardet were in the top 5..
This was the profile
https://www.procyclingstats.com/images/profiles/ap/ac/tour-de-france-2016-stage-18-profile.jpg

I don't know how you can call that a hilly TT. This is what's called an MTT.

The TT he won wasn't flat. It was rolling with a very hilly finish:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2016/stage-13-teams/today/profiles

I hate it when people sprout such misinformed nonsense.
It's between the 2, some would call it hilly, some a mtt. You don't get to decide. And there's really no reason to get that riled up about it.
 
Sounds great. He doesn't need much time on Thomas. If he will be closer than 50 seconds I fully expect Thomas to break under the pressure in some form. He crashed during the prologue of TdS this year and there was much less pressure.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Next year full focus on TDF and Sunweb are bringing their A squad with Oomen and Kelderman and they hope to find some other climbing additions to the team.
Good news. I still think they need to sign 2 or 3 more domestiques though. Their team should look something like:

Dumoulin, Kelderman, Oomen, Andersen, Geschke and then perhaps Matthews. That leaves 2 or 3 spots open which they currently not have riders for. Perhaps Teunissen could warrant a spot.
 
Funny thing is he doesnt really need mountain domestiques as Sky or more less rides the way he wants to. He is effectively using them as his domestiques - I doubt Sky would have ridden much different had Dumoulin lost time on Bretagne.
 
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Valv.Piti said:
Funny thing is he doesnt really need mountain domestiques as Sky or more less rides the way he wants to. He is effectively using them as his domestiques - I doubt Sky would have ridden much different had Dumoulin lost time on Bretagne.
I kinda agree with that. The problem arise when Froome/Thomas attacks and he can't use the Sky-train. He's a master at pacing himself though, so even in that situation he's able to limit his losses much better than anyone else. Still, one or two mountain domestiques would be useful.
 
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Valv.Piti said:
Funny thing is he doesnt really need mountain domestiques as Sky or more less rides the way he wants to. He is effectively using them as his domestiques - I doubt Sky would have ridden much different had Dumoulin lost time on Bretagne.
It's insurance though to have some guys beside you, if he has a mechanical or forgot to go to the bathroom or something.
 
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Valv.Piti said:
Funny thing is he doesnt really need mountain domestiques as Sky or more less rides the way he wants to. He is effectively using them as his domestiques - I doubt Sky would have ridden much different had Dumoulin lost time on Bretagne.
If one team rides like that, you barely need your own usually, and you can better bring one Kelderman than 25 Ten Dams.

I wonder what Sunweb will do next year. Gotta guess Dumoulin will go the Tour, and this Tour might encourage him to try for the Vuelta afterwards
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Next year full focus on TDF and Sunweb are bringing their A squad with Oomen and Kelderman and they hope to find some other climbing additions to the team.
The logical decision.
Last year Tom tried to gamble a bit with stating a lot of times that he will ride the Giro or the Tour based on whichever suits him the most. In the end he rode both despite neither of them had much TT kms this year. Now they declare that Dumoulin will ride the Tour with the strongest possible team supporting him even before this year's race is over or we know anything relevant about next year's route.

Brave decision but I like it. This year Tom showed that he is far more than a great time trialist. He is one of the best climbers in the world as well and he keeps getting better. He doesn't have to fear any route. And since last year's gamble doesn't exactly worked out why not play with open cards now?

As for the team he do need strong guys. If he is alone in the mountains and has a mechanical he will lose a ton of time. If he has a teammate with him they just switch bikes. And if he has a bad day even tough he can pace himself very well it's still advantageous to have some a super domestique with him who can help.
 
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kiszol said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Next year full focus on TDF and Sunweb are bringing their A squad with Oomen and Kelderman and they hope to find some other climbing additions to the team.
The logical decision.
Last year Tom tried to gamble a bit with stating a lot of times that he will ride the Giro or the Tour based on whichever suits him the most. In the end he rode both despite neither of them had much TT kms this year. Now they declare that Dumoulin will ride the Tour with the strongest possible team supporting him even before this year's race is over or we know anything relevant about next year's route.

Brave decision but I like it. This year Tom showed that he is far more than a great time trialist. He is one of the best climbers in the world as well and he keeps getting better. He doesn't have to fear any route. And since last year's gamble doesn't exactly worked out why not play with open cards now?

As for the team he do need strong guys. If he is alone in the mountains and has a mechanical he will lose a ton of time. If he has a teammate with him they just switch bikes. And if he has a bad day even tough he can pace himself very well it's still advantageous to have some a super domestique with him who can help.
What he needs are riders who are still there when Castro or Kwiatkowski are done. Climbing depth isn't that useful unless you have to control the race. And even then a stronger team would do little to help him attack, although I guess it depends a little on what Sky does with Bernal and Thomas.

That said, I think ITTs will either be up or almost non existant next year. They might just put eggs in teh Froome-Dumoulin basket, or just hope to nerf the ITTists to keep the race artificially close.
 
That said, I think ITTs will either be up or almost non existant next year. They might just put eggs in teh Froome-Dumoulin basket, or just hope to nerf the ITTists to keep the race artificially close.
With the emergence of Dumoulin, and now also Roglic and Thoma, and to a lesser extent, Jungels, and maybe also Porte, we finally have a situation where Froome isn’t guaranteed big time gains on all his gc rivals in any/every TT. I would hope we might actually see a decent amount of TT kilometers next year as a result.
 
Leinster said:
That said, I think ITTs will either be up or almost non existant next year. They might just put eggs in teh Froome-Dumoulin basket, or just hope to nerf the ITTists to keep the race artificially close.
With the emergence of Dumoulin, and now also Roglic and Thoma, and to a lesser extent, Jungels, and maybe also Porte, we finally have a situation where Froome isn’t guaranteed big time gains on all his gc rivals in any/every TT. I would hope we might actually see a decent amount of TT kilometers next year as a result.
But ASO want this boye



Does this boye look like he likes them ITTs?
 
Next year a short prologue with hills, a short mountain TT and six MTFs and Bardet still wouldn't win nor would Quintana. You still have to have the engine and the will and be prepared to take risks. Dumoulin is clearly a level above both of them now even when he tries the double. Roglic and Thomas are also doing better than them on the climbs.
 
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movingtarget said:
Next year a short prologue with hills, a short mountain TT and six MTFs and Bardet still wouldn't win nor would Quintana. You still have to have the engine and the will and be prepared to take risks. Dumoulin is clearly a level above both of them now even when he tries the double. Roglic and Thomas are also doing better than them on the climbs.
I don't think the ASO will think about this the logical way
 
BullsFan22 said:
For Dumoulin to think about the yellow in Paris, what would he have to bring the gap down to after today's stage to upend both Sky boys? How far behind could he be prior to the ITT to have a chance at overtaking them?
Don't think he'll pull more back than 40s on either of them.
 
Red Rick said:
BullsFan22 said:
For Dumoulin to think about the yellow in Paris, what would he have to bring the gap down to after today's stage to upend both Sky boys? How far behind could he be prior to the ITT to have a chance at overtaking them?
Don't think he'll pull more back than 40s on either of them.
Because this is the third week I would be surprised if he gains more than 30 seconds. And I see Roglic being much closer.
 

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