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Tour de France 2017 stage 4: Mondorf-les-Bains-Vittel 207 km

Who is going to win the stage?

  • Marcel Kittel

    Votes: 50 50.0%
  • André Greipel

    Votes: 5 5.0%
  • Mark Cavendish

    Votes: 6 6.0%
  • Sonny Colbrelli

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Arnaud Demare

    Votes: 15 15.0%
  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 14 14.0%
  • Dylan Groenewegen

    Votes: 4 4.0%
  • Michael Matthews

    Votes: 2 2.0%
  • None of the above

    Votes: 4 4.0%
  • Vino-option

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    100
  • Poll closed .
Prudhomme's thoughts about the stage:

Passing through Schengen and before returning to French territory, the peloton will have confirmation it can go around freely… Without major difficulties, this stage should offer a second opportunity to the sprinters. Beware however, the roads of Meurthe-et-Moselle could be swept by the wind and that could represent a menace for the title contenders.

Another flat stage awaits the peloton and us, followers of this 3 week event, starting in the spa town Mondorf-les-Bains (Bad Mondorf) in Luxembourg. Shortly after the start, the Tour enters France yet again, going roughly south all day, and just passing the outskirts of the city Metz. The finish line is located in the town of Vittel, a town famous for its bottled water carrying the same name. Vittel was hosting a stage finish in 2009 where the latest Danish stage victory in the Tour is to be found. Nicki Sørensen with the joy screaming in his eyes so to speak, pictured below..

2lastnq.jpg


..won the stage, attacking and leaving first his breakaway companions behind and 5 kilometers from the finish, his only follower Sylvain Calzati from Agritubel. That stage caused nothing to the GC standings at the time, where Nocentini (AG2R) was leading with 6 seconds down to Alberto Contador and 8 seconds to Lance Armstrong Astana had actually 4 guys in the top 10 at the end of the stage; the two aforementioned, Levi Leipheimer (4th) and Andreas Klöden (6th). Alberto Contador did his best in trying to destroy the doubts of the hierarchy in Astana by crushing every competitor the final victory with the legendary and record-breaking (in terms of VAM) ride up the Verbier a couple of days later.

Vittel was also the start of a 200 km long hilly stage to Colmar the day after the last truly euphoric Tour moment for Denmark, where Heinrich Haussler won from a breakaway.

Now, have a look at the profile of the stage

ox97S.png


And zoom in on the last kilometers..

wFxiA.png


Slightly, barely noticable uphill, except if you are one of my size and fitness. It won't have any significance at all for these riders. Bunch sprint is to be expected, since the unlikelihood of letting a break go as in 2009, the year of the Verbier ;) .

Weather forecast:

149bdaf.png


GC after stage 3:

1. Geraint THOMAS
2. Christopher FROOME + 12''
3. Michael MATTHEWS + 12''
4. Peter SAGAN + 13''
5. Edvald BOASSON HAGEN + 16''
6. Pierre Roger LATOUR + 25''
7. Phillipe GILBERT + 30''
8. Michal KWIATKOWSKI + 32''
9. Tim WELLENS + 32''
10. Nikias ARNDT + 34''

Points jersey classification top 5:

Marcel KITTEL 66
Arnaud DEMARE 57
Peter SAGAN 50
Michael MATTHEWS 44
Sonny COLBRELLI 32


Will be updated (with poll) as soon more info (and time) is available.
 
Yep, surely another for Kittel. That last km averages 1.7% according to the profile. Approaching it at 60km/h, they will hardley even feel it I think. Just maybe will make the timing of the sprint slightly more important, but no more so than with a light headwind.
 
Re:

klintE said:
Michael Mathews from Australia will win this bike race stage.
I hope you´re joking. He can´t even win on a finish that suits him. How is he going to beat Kittel in a flat sprint? Even Sagan doesn´t come close to Kittel´s speed and Sagan is a bigger guy than Matthews.
 
Hey OP, you give that extremely average breakaway win of Sørensen two fat paragraphs, while Haussler's absolutely epic breakaway the day after is not even given the honour of a full sentence! For me, Vittel will always be known for bottled water and as the start of that extraterrestrial stage through the Vosges.
 
Re:

Squire said:
Hey OP, you give that extremely average breakaway win of Sørensen two fat paragraphs, while Haussler's absolutely epic breakaway the day after is not even given the honour of a full sentence! For me, Vittel will always be known for bottled water and as the start of that extraterrestrial stage through the Vosges.

I'm a Dane myself (Rising right-wing rhetoric partly causing an identity crisis though, coupled with my foreign roots lol), so I would argue that I am somewhat excused ;) - I remember Nicki's victory, Verbier and the "Schlecks and Contador cooperating and distancing everyone in an epic mountain stage" stage only :Neutral:
 
Re: Re:

Screecher said:
klintE said:
Michael Mathews from Australia will win this bike race stage.
I hope you´re joking.
He can´t even win on a finish that suits him.
I'm not sure if I'm joking, really.
Suits him but not only him. It was even more suited with Sagan abilities.
He was second strong.

Screecher said:
How is he going to beat Kittel in a flat sprint? Even Sagan doesn´t come close to Kittel´s speed and Sagan is a bigger guy than Matthews.
QSF generally fails in this Tour - like today not much helping Martin.
They didn't show they are able to properly speed up their guy and get him up to the front in the crucial moment.Kittel had to do this by himself on stage 2.
But still, Kittel is favorite but I predict surprise.
 
If it were deeper into the race I'd go for Demare or Greipel (possibly Sagan), but a fresh Kittel should be able to deal with a false flat sprint.

With no wind, no real prizes in the first 4 hours, and a number of sprinters' teams williing to control the pace, I'm expecting a weaker break than on the first road race stage.
 
Re: Tour de France 2017 stage 4: Mondorf-les-Bains-Vittel 20

Sprint finish .... but! Will it be the stage for Tommy V's tounge wagging breakaway show? He's a man who knows where the TV cameras are! :)