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Tour de France 2018 stage 9: Arras > Roubaix 156,5 km

The long awaited and mostly feared stage 9 of the Tour starts at Arras Citadelle and ends in Roubaix in the North-Eastern France.

"It's the most feared stage for the GC contenders. This time around, there aren't just a few cobblestones to animate the race, but 22 kilometres of the pavés of Paris-Roubaix divided in 15 sectors from km 47.5 to 8km to go, the finish being located on the avenue Maxence Van der Meersch near the legendary velodrome on its indoor version "Le Stab" (in memory of the 1962 world champion Jean Stablinski who was also the first rider to test positive at the Tour de France fifty years ago)."

Map:
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Profile:
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In this decade, cobbles have featured in 2010, 2014 and 2015.

In 2010, Cancellara paced the young Andy Schleck (2nd in TdF 2009) in a bid to take time from Lance Armstrong (3rd 2009) and Alberto Contador (1st 2009). That mission succeded by taking almost a minute from Contador and 2 minutes from Armstrong.

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The only GC contender managing to hang on was Cadel Evans. Unfortunately this strategic victory brought with sorrow and pain with it, since Fränk Schleck crashed on the cobbles and had to abandon with a broken collarbone. Thor Hushovd won the sprint between the first six.

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When talking about cobble stages in the Tour de France, the year 2014 was perhaps the most dramatic.
Nibali was the protagonist in this epic stage, that is still remembered for its drama and its gruesome weather:
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He rode away from almost everything and everyone except for Lars Boom, who took the stage win in front of the shark and his lieutenant, Fuglsang.
In this weather, slippery cobbles were a given. Unfortunately Froome was one of the victims that day.
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Where as other contenders, such as Nibali, Pinot, Valverde and Contador, managed to stay on the bike, even though especially Nibali was frightfully close to be taken down by his team mate Iglinskiy, who fell in front of his captain. With one of the Big 4 out (and another, Quintana, absent), there was only two left. Contador lost approx. 2 minutes and 40 seconds to Nibali that day:
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and the big debate whether Contador could pull those 3 minutes back. Some said he could, some said it would be difficult, a viewpoint backed up by Nibali's absolute dominance in the race, he won. Since Contador crashed out in stage 10, we will never know the answer. And it doesn't really matter now anyway, does it? Whoever you support of the two, this stage will be remembered for a long, long time.

A year later, 2015, the cobbles were introduced again, although not as difficult as 2014. Unfortunately that showed, since no the favorites kept each other in check, despite Nibali trying his best to repeat his ride from last year
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At least none of the big 4, Froome, Quintana, Contador and Nibali, crashed. Furthermore, the stage and the cobbles were dry, which might have made riding on the cobbles easier (perhaps "less difficult" is more fitting in this context).
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Tony Martin won the stage and took the yellow jersey as well, until he crashed out of the race two stages later.
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Will we get a repeat of 2010 with dry weather and crashes, 2015 with a stalemate or 2014 with drama?

Either way, we won't get a repeat of 2014 on the weather front unfortunately...
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Cobble sectors:

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Mons-de-Pévèle and Champin-de-Pévèle are 5 and 4 star rated in Paris-Roubaix, respectively. (The roadbook doesn't mention difficulty, so if you know anything, please share!)

General classification before tomorrow, top 10:
Note: GC contenders outside top 10 underlined

1. Greg Van AVERMAET (BMC)
2. Geraint THOMAS (SKY) + 7''
3. Tejay VAN GARDEREN (BMC) + 9''
4. Philippe GILBERT (Quickstep) + 16''
5. Bob JUNGELS (Quickstep) + 22''
6. Rigoberto URAN (EF-ED) + 49''
7. Alejandro VALVERDE (Movistar) + 55''
8. Rafal MAJKA (Bora) + 56''
9. Jakob FUGLSANG (Astana) + 57''
10. Richie PORTE (BMC) + 57''
11. Mikel LANDA (Movistar) + 59''
12. Chris FROOME (SKY) + 1' 06''
13. Adam YATES (MS) + 1' 06''
15. Vincenzo NIBALI (Merida) + 1' 12''
17. Bauke MOLLEMA (Trek) + 1' 22''
19. Tom DUMOULIN (Sunweb) + 1' 27''
20. Steven KRUIJSWIJK (NL-Jumbo) + 1' 30''
22. Romain BARDET (AG2R) + 1' 49''
24. Ilnur ZAKARIN (Katusha) + 2' 06''
26. Nairo QUINTANA (Movistar) + 2' 14''
30. Dan MARTIN (UAE) + 2' 47''

Polka-dot jersey competition before tomorrow:

1. Toms SKUIJNS (Trek) 6
2. Sylvain CHAVANEL (Direct Energie) 4
3. Dion SMITH (Wanty) 4

Points jersey competition before tomorrow:

1. Peter SAGAN (Bora) 265
2. Fernando GAVIRIA (Quickstep) 234
3. Dylan GROENEWEGEN (NL-Jumbo) 132
4. André GREIPEL (Lotto-Soudal) 125
5. Alexander KRISTOFF (UAE) 119
 
I hope we will have total carnage!
Wishing anybody a crash is not allowed, so let's hope it will be raining.. a lot of mud.. almost everybody with mechanical problems.......!
 
Re:

Carols said:
Finally a stage to salivate over :). GVA for the win, Nibali to get time on the other GC contenders![/quote]
Yes, maybe.
The questions (maybe for adittional thread) are:
- who of GC contenders will lose some time;
- who of them will get it?
First question: Bardet, Quintana, maybe Landa@Porte, Zakarin, Bernal, Majka;
Second: yes, Nibali, Froome@Thomas, Dumoulin.
 
The cobbles sectors aren't very long but there are a lot of them which means as long as we have a big peloton there will be frantic fights for positions. As bad as it sounds, that's the main reason why I don't think a Buch sprint is likely as I can't see a big peloton going through so many hectic situations without crashes.
 
How will this be raced as opposed to a true classic? I'm worried this will be a disappointment (i.e strongman battling it out while G.C riders roll in together.)

Weather appears clement :-(

Aside from Nibali, who from the G.C has the temerity to launch an attack or ride risky lines on the cobbles? Which G.C rider has the weakest team for the stage parcours?

Previous Tour excursions onto the cobbles were much shorter; how will the inclusion of 4 and 5 star sections and the additional length of pave impact lightweight riders from a fatigue standpoint?
 
Feb 17, 2017
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This stage is significantly more difficult than 2010, 2014 and 2015. There is little chance of a bunch sprint. GVA, Sagan and Terpstra will go for the win dragging Nibali, Fuglsang, Dumoulin and Thomas with. GC riders will be distanced. The question is who will they be.
 
The overall length of the sectors should, by itself, be selective enough.
Add to it everything else that follows racing on the cobbles, and tactical differences between a GT stage on the pavement and Paris - Roubaix, and you get a whole new ballgame consisting of several races inside a single stage.
 
Some teams would love for nothing to happen, but there will be action. Small roads will lead to gaps anyway and if a team wants to race a gap will be made, if a gc rider is dropped others will join. I expect gaps.
 
Gigs_98 said:
The cobbles sectors aren't very long but there are a lot of them which means as long as we have a big peloton there will be frantic fights for positions. As bad as it sounds, that's the main reason why I don't think a Buch sprint is likely as I can't see a big peloton going through so many hectic situations without crashes.

This. And the gaps that are created will only instigate harder racing.
 
Apr 18, 2017
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Peloton had relative easy 2 days in saddle. I think Quickstep will go really hard and broke the race in pieces. If Bahrain and Astana smell some chance to steal seconds and minutes, they definitely won´t hesitate. Thomas and Bala to gain a lot of time to Froome and QuinLanda. Zakarin, Kruijswijk and Dan Martin will lose all GC hopes. Not sure how Bardet, Majka and Mollema will cope with the cobbles and i wonder which of cobble specialists like Stuyven, Degenkolb, Kristoff and GVA will help their GC leaders and which will chase stage victory.
 

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