Tour de France 2020 Rest Day 1 Poll: Who is going to win?

[Escarabajo]

So who is going to win the Tour after rest day 1?

 

[Red Rick]

Not gonna vote just laugh at those who get it wrong huehuehue

Spoiler

Roglic

 

[Luthor]

Tier 1 favs : Roglic, Bernal
Tier 2 favs: Pogacar, Quintana

From these four I think we are gonna see the podium as well.
My pick for now is Roglic but Bernal is close. TJV needs to recover their climbers.

 

[Escarabajo]

Just Head: Roglic
Head & Heart: Bernal
Just Heart: Quintana

 

[Gigs_98]

Idk, I think nobody except Pogacar and I'm just not sure if he has the top level climbing (yet) to gain enough time in the Alps to win it all. So Roglic is probably the rational option although I'm still not 100% convinced about how well peak Roglic is actually climbing and I can still see him fading in the 3rd week.
That said I didn't really want to vote for the boring option Roglic so instead I voted Bernal. I expect his shape to get quite a lot better and I still think peak Bernal drops peak Roglic on a HC mtf quite substantially. Whether he hits that peak, well that's the big question but I don't think it's all that unlikely.

 

[Luthor]

No love for the french

 

[Red Rick]

Okay had to reset poll to make results visible without voting

 

[Anderis]

I feel like it's going to be Pogacar. He's looked the strongest so far. I can see him cracking Roglic at some point (I presume he needs to have some advantage ahead of the final ITT). The rest doesn't even look that strong.

 

[Red Rick]

Idk, I think nobody except Pogacar and I'm just not sure if he has the top level climbing (yet) to gain enough time in the Alps to win it all. So Roglic is probably the rational option although I'm still not 100% convinced about how well peak Roglic is actually climbing and I can still see him fading in the 3rd week.
That said I didn't really want to vote for the boring option Roglic so instead I voted Bernal. I expect his shape to get quite a lot better and I still think peak Bernal drops peak Roglic on a HC mtf quite substantially. Whether he hits that peak, well that's the big question but I don't think it's all that unlikely.

Bernal and Pogacar are obviousy gonna destroy each other for the white jersey. Dumoulin is there to bring Roglic the popcorn.

But yeah I think Roglic is gonna be too solid. I don't really think Grand Colombier is that great anymore. Col de la Loze alone is probably not enough. Tons of climbs you can put next to Col de la Loze, and I don't think the super long climbs have the massive differences at the front. Typical Ineos one climb blowouts are just having the strongest climber in the race, the strongest team in the race and then just drilling it till everyone's dead. I don't see how they have the team to isolate Jumbo and then beat Roglic for a really big amount of time.

Pogacar definitely makes a better impression on me, but he has no team.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Voted Bernal. He's calm, growing into form, has done very little and burnt very little energy, yet he's only 20 seconds behind Roglic, who's had his team do a lot of work for very little advantage. I think Pogacar has burnt a few matches and i think he'll pay the price in week 3.

 

[mrgmyers]

If mindless fools keep encroaching on the riders without masks NO ONE as the TdF will be cancelled.

 

[Red Rick]

How much of the Dauphine did Bernal do again?

Pogacar was growing inthe Dauphine. I don't think he's peaking too soon.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

How much of the Dauphine did Bernal do again?

Pogacar was growing inthe Dauphine. I don't think he's peaking too soon.

I'm not saying Pog is peaking too soon. I'm saying he's already had to dig deeper than Bernal, for instance.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I think Bernal takes it, but I'm hoping Bardet or Pogačar.

 

[spalco]

No love for the french

Love doesn't win races I'm afraid.

And Egan Bernal wins this bike race.

 

[Koronin]

Gotta go with Roglic at this point. However, I think the podium is Roglic, Pogacar, Bernal is some order.

 

[SafeBet]

Pogacar and it's not gonna be close.

 

[Eclipse]

Roglic because until he looks like being droppable I see no reason to doubt him. He's basically completely impervious.

That said I think JV have made some real mistakes with not punishing those who were struggling and Bernal could punish them in turn if he's survived through his struggles.

 

[42x16ss]

Top 6 is looking fairly set already IMO:

Roglic
Bernal/Pogacar fighting for 2nd and 3rd
4th to 6th between Landa, Quintana and Martin, in that order.

Only potential partycrashers I'm seeing are Bardet and Uran.

Porte, Mas, Yates and the others will continue to drift down the GC as the race goes on.

 

[red_flanders]

Seems like Roglič and Pogačar to me. Head says Roglič because form, experience, team. Heart says Pogačar because...special. Go with the heart.

 

[BlueRoads]

I don't who will win but it would be so amazing if it was Bardet or Urán. Even Quintana. Three guys who everyone (well, I) thought were past it.
But it's going to be between Roglic, Pogacar and Bernal for sure.

 

[Breezy1985]

Anyone but Ineos please

 

[Cookster15]

Very hard to predict. My heart wants Nairo or Bernal. I wouldn't mind Roglic either. But my head can't decide. . So I didn't vote.

 

[Fergoose]

Bernal with one attack, one knockout blow will complete the route in the shortest time but lose to Roglic on bonuses (which is completely fair). Pogicar to lose his competitive advantage over the field but get a clear third.

 

[Cookster15]

The OP should have included COVID-19 in the poll. That is sadly my tip. If we get to Paris it will be a miracle.