Tour de France 2020 | Stage 9 (Pau - Laruns, 153 km)

The second half of the Pyrenees. This stage is harder than it looks, but the 8k of flat at the end might neuter action.

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Timetable

Start: 12:15
Côte d'Artiguelouve: 12:49/12:50/12:50
Col de la Hourcère: 14:17/14:23/14:28
Col de Soudet: 14:31/14:37/14:44
Intermediate sprint: 14:54/15:02/15:09
Col d'Ichère: 15:20/15:29/15:39
Col de Marie Blanque: 15:53/16:05/16:16
Finish: 16:15/16:27/16:40

Climbs
The opening third of the stage is mostly flat, with only the cat. 4 Côte d'Artiguelouve early on. Things become very serious after that, with the Col de la Hourcère making its debut in the race. I'm amazed it hasn't been rated HC, it's harder than many other 'new' HC climbs of recent years.

It's immediately followed by the final 3.9k of Col de Soudet. How this isn't a cat. 2 is beyond me, and the Col d'Ichère is also hard for a cat. 3. The final climb of Col de Marie Blanque follows shortly after. There was a time when ASO used it very frequently, but it's been ignored by the Tour since 2010, although the queen stage of the 2016 Vuelta did use it. It's a fairly similar climb to Mur de Péguère, but it's closer to Laruns than Péguère is to Foix. The final 4k average 11.6%, definitely hard enough to break up the GC group if anyone wants to turn the screw.


General classification after Stage 8
  1. Adam Yates
  2. Primoz Roglic + 0.03
  3. Guillaume Martin + 0.09
  4. Romain Bardet + 0.11
  5. Egan Bernal + 0.13
  6. Nairo Quintana s.t.
  7. Miguel Ángel López s.t.
  8. Rigoberto Uran s.t.
  9. Tadej Pogacar + 0.48
  10. Enric Mas (spa) + 1.00
Points classification after Stage 8
  1. Peter Sagan 138
  2. Sam Bennett 131
  3. Wout van Aert 106
  4. Bryan Coquard 106
  5. Alexander Kristoff 93
Mountains classification after Stage 8
  1. Benoît Cosnefroy 35
  2. Nans Peters 31
  3. Ilnur Zakarin 25
  4. Toms Skujins 24
  5. Quentin Pacher 20
Young riders classification after Stage 8
  1. Egan Bernal
  2. Tadej Pogacar + 0.35
  3. Enric Mas + 0.47
  4. Sergio Higuita + 2.35
  5. Neilson Powless + 31.36
 
Why is the finish so early? Don't they know it's F1 in Monza tomorrow? Bad move I think. It would've worked much better had they started it at around 13:00 like today.

I think Formolo is targeting this stage. He was with the sprinters today. If it doesn't go right in the break he can always help Pogačar in the end.
 
What will neuter the action is not the flat at the end, but the flat in between: too many domestiques at the foot of Marie Blanque. We need another ridiculous attack from someone to blow up the race. If everyone is on their own with no teammates, the flat at the end is irrelevant. It's all down to chasing group dynamics. Ask Carapaz for details.
 
Jul 10, 2016
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2,710
Well, im going for Nairo this time.
Arkea should go full gas on Hourcere and create havoc, then, everyone is by his own. Team Arkea would not serve for the last climb. they are never there and cant match JV or Ineos, so best chance is use the matches when you can. Burn them fast and unpredictable. Anacona, Dayer, full gas from the botom.
 
Reactions: Nairo's Elbow Flick
What will neuter the action is not the flat at the end, but the flat in between: too many domestiques at the foot of Marie Blanque. We need another ridiculous attack from someone to blow up the race. If everyone is on their own with no teammates, the flat at the end is irrelevant. It's all down to chasing group dynamics. Ask Carapaz for details.
Just use your own domestiques to nuke the false flat of the Marie Blanque, then gaps should be big enough to the domestiques at least for them to not really matter.
 
col de la Hourcere could have isolated team leaders away from their doms, with those gradients.

but there's way too much valley after.

steep part of marie-blanque the GCers will have at it.

look for pog to attack. this time rog will do everything to stay with him.

no idea who wins the stage if it is won by the break -- crap shoot.

but pog, rog and nairo make the break they failed to finish today.

uran may surprise. he looked pretty spritely and was the one to close to those three today. or am i just dreaming...?
 
i am intrigued...

such mystery.

what's the reason?
There may be something from la Vuelta. Roglic has worked with others before, but it was obvious he didn't want to deal with that group and preferred to let Pogacar go up the road than work with that specific group. My guess is due to Quintana being quick to ask for relief when he's on the front and Roglic and Pogacar not being willing to risk that.
 
If raced hard, the time gaps will be massive. See the 1986 route when Hinault attacked early on an easier route, then LeMond dropped the hammer on an uncategoried climb near the finish.

Of course, today's peloton will likely soft pedal, like they did in 2011 when Thor won (yes, Thor Hushovd won a high Pyrenian stage. Maybe Sagan could keep in contact with the main bunch if he were so inclined
 
The last climb looks hard enough, for Adam Yates to have troubles defending the maillot jaune. Especially if JV decides they want it. In that case it could very likely happen, another potential GC favorite, from the ones that remained, could lost time tomorrow.

P.S. I doubt Pogačar will attack again tomorrow. If he will be able to cope with the favorites, then he already did a great job.
 
If raced hard, the time gaps will be massive. See the 1986 route when Hinault attacked early on an easier route, then LeMond dropped the hammer on an uncategoried climb near the finish.

Of course, today's peloton will likely soft pedal, like they did in 2011 when Thor won (yes, Thor Hushovd won a high Pyrenian stage. Maybe Sagan could keep in contact with the main bunch if he were so inclined
Don’t laugh, but with the Hourcere being 50km from the Marie Blanque, I can definitely see Sagan getting into the break to make sure he gets maximum points at the intermediate while Bennett gets nothing. And the break will be happy to have an engine like him along that will definitely drop back before the M-B.
 

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