Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 4 (Dunkerque – Calais, 171.5k)

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Letting WVA wait for Vingegaard would have been a bad team decision. It is true that, if WVA waits, you slightly increase the chance that Vingegaard and Yates gain a few seconds on Pogacar and some other contenders.

However, it is also true that:
  • it is very unlikely that those few seconds will make any difference in the end;
  • it is a lot more likely that they would have been caught because both the sprinter and GT teams would've chased, meaning that the chance to take the stage win drops;
  • on top of that, a stage win such as this one is gold for the sponsors, especially Jumbo who is targetting the Belgian market.
Nonsense. Sky and Jumbo don't chase, UAE was nonexsistant, the sprinters were dropped or nearly so. Ineos was KO for Chrissake. Hell, Catano worked for Jakobson to no avial to show how desperate things were for the sprintes. No Wout, Vingegaard and Yates together would have gained more time.
 
I'm thinking out loud whether WVA should have waited for JV.

WVA won the stage by 8 seconds over Jasper Philipsen and a disorganized peloton.

First question: Would the trio of WVA, JV, and Yates have been faster to the line? It's hard to say. Yates could be persuaded to help pull if he felt they would put time into Pocagar, but it's also possible that JV and Yates would slow WVA down. They could not keep up with him on the jump.

Second question: If two GC contenders joined the break, would the peloton have been more efficient in reeling them in? As Pogacar stated, he was not animated when WVA left JV, but would he (and other teams/contenders) have been more animated if JV went with WVA?

Third question: If the trio broke away, and if they held on all the way to the line, how much time would they have actually put into Pogacar or the other GC contenders? 10 seconds? Less?
 
Letting WVA wait for Vingegaard would have been a bad team decision. It is true that, if WVA waits, you slightly increase the chance that Vingegaard and Yates gain a few seconds on Pogacar and some other contenders.

However, it is also true that:
  • it is very unlikely that those few seconds will make any difference in the end;
  • it is a lot more likely that they would have been caught because both the sprinter and GT teams would've chased, meaning that the chance to take the stage win drops;
  • on top of that, a stage win such as this one is gold for the sponsors, especially Jumbo who is targetting the Belgian market.
We think alike.
 
Which ones? Look with Jumbo and Sky up the road who takes up the chase? No, with Wout, Adam and Jonas up the road the chase actually relents and the trio gains 30 secs.

Totally guessing game that. Bora, Movi (if they had riders), Bahrain even. GC teams are acting strange sometimes. See, Haig and Mas beat Yates in the last GT.

And even without any GC team they would get 20 seconds at most if any.
 
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I'm thinking out loud whether WVA should have waited for JV.

WVA won the stage by 8 seconds over Jasper Philipsen and a disorganized peloton.

First question: Would the trio of WVA, JV, and Yates have been faster to the line? It's hard to say. Yates could be persuaded to help pull if he felt they would put time into Pocagar, but it's also possible that JV and Yates would slow WVA down. They could not keep up with him on the jump.

Second question: If two GC contenders joined the break, would the peloton have been more efficient in reeling them in? As Pogacar stated, he was not animated when WVA left JV, but would he (and other teams/contenders) have been more animated if JV went with WVA and closed the break down?

Third question: If the trio broke away, and if they held on all the way to the line, how much time would they have actually put into Pogacar or the other GC contenders? 10 seconds? Less?
30
 
Letting WVA wait for Vingegaard would have been a bad team decision. It is true that, if WVA waits, you slightly increase the chance that Vingegaard and Yates gain a few seconds on Pogacar and some other contenders.

However, it is also true that:
  • it is very unlikely that those few seconds will make any difference in the end;
  • it is a lot more likely that they would have been caught because both the sprinter and GT teams would've chased, meaning that the chance to take the stage win drops;
  • on top of that, a stage win such as this one is gold for the sponsors, especially Jumbo who is targetting the Belgian market.
This. Not sure why it's confusing for people.
 
5 or 6 J-V and INEOS riders would have been plenty to stick it to the other teams. Especially when considering that some of the best TTers would have been in that group.

Not saying WVA had to wait. Makes no difference to me ...but I think it would have worked.
 
Wout post-race interview:


‎"It's finally the right one! Did you specially tick this step? ‎
‎Yes, it was ticked even before the start of the Tour. With the team, we had specially observed the course. We knew that he was particularly demanding with climbs and descents. The plan was to play both the general classification and the green jersey, knowing that there were 50 points to take on the finish line. We also planned that, if there was wind, we could try something for Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard. That's why we tackled the last climb thoroughly and especially in front, with two objectives in mind. Van Hooydonck did a big number to impose a very big train and the takeover of Benoot was crucial. The only thing that wasn't planned was that I found myself alone at the top of the coast. I turned my head, I heard on the headset that everything was ok for my leaders, so I gave everything to go for the stage victory.‎
 
Well any GC intersted team should have or else they are stupid.
The sprintteams would have chased regardless. They don't care if Pogacar loses 10 seconds or not.
Outside of JV and Ineos, every other GC team knows they are riding for a top 3 or 5 at most since before the Tour. Vingegaard and Yates are way more rivals for those places than Pogacar. Of course they would have chased.
 

Jns

Feb 25, 2018
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Nonsense. Sky and Jumbo don't chase, UAE was nonexsistant, the sprinters were dropped or nearly so. Ineos was KO for Chrissake. Hell, Catano worked for Jakobson to no avial to show how desperate things were for the sprintes. No Wout, Vingegaard and Yates together would have gained more time.
It's extremely unlikely that they would have gained even more time. Besides the sprinters' teams, Bahrain, AG2R, Bora, UAE and Movistar would all have had a good reason to chase and they had sufficient time to organise (even if they weren't organised yet immediately after the climb). Weighing all the pros and cons, letting WVA wait just wasn't worth it.
 
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F
Could be, but I think everybody would have stuck it to Pogacar or should have if GC is in mind.

Like they did last year when Carapaz attacked?
I mean, do you really think this would happen? Tour de France doesn't work like that. You get top 5 (pre Tour) contender goes ahead, every team with top 10 contender works Amongst some teams with sprinters.

The more I think, the more I realize you make Vae Aert wait, you doom the whole move.
 
Reactions: Stelvio and Jns
So people are discussing whether Wout should have waited. I already told you guys last year that Wout won't wait was already a big hit in the 90s and you should have known. Anyway, why do you think Wout signed a new contract with Jumbo? Most likely he was told he'd get his own chances. So, the team owes it to an insanely good rider to give him these chances. Now imagine on a day like today there simply is no van Aert for Jumbo, what happens? Option one: it's a bunch sprint and Philipsen wins. Option two: Van Aert wins, but for Quickstep or Ineos or whoever. You think that's better for the team?
 
Brilliant move by jumbo bagging a win and in a great move. Wout will be happy to help his leaders through the stage tomorrow and still wear the yellow after the stage.

Team showed great tactics today and happy both jumbo and Ineos expose the weaknesses UAE possess.

Now. I think Pog wants to prove a point tomorrow on stage 5, and let us remember how well he rode the cobbles in Flanders. He does not take losing lightly so he is fired up now
 

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