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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 11: Clermont-Ferrand - Moulins, 179.8k

The second-longest stage after the first rest day (yes, really) is also the only sprint opportunity in week 2.

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Map
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The route
The stage starts from Clermont-Ferrand, which the riders already passed through on Sunday and the host of the grand départ of the upcoming women's race. Following a flat first half hour, the riders take on the only hilly part of the stage, climbing first the Côte de Chaptuzat-Haut...
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...and then the long, gradual climb up to La Bosse, only the first 2.9 kilometres of which are categorised as Côte de Mercurol.
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After this, the roads become flatter again, with the next point of interest being the intermediate sprint in Lapeyrouse.
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The second half of the stage contains a cat. 4 as well, the Côte de la Croix Blanche.
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From there, the riders turn east into a cross-tailwind that shouldn't be strong enough to cause any splits, and head directly for Moulins, once the seat of the Dukes of Bourbon (a lesser branch of which would later sit the French throne).

Final kilometres
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Slightly downhill until about 4k from the line. The road stays completely straight until this roundabout at just over 3k to go, the left side is much shorter here.
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The next roundabout comes at 2.5k to go, just before the river is crossed. This time, the right side seems a little shorter.
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The curve after the bridge is marked, but the actual narrowing only comes about 100 metres after it.
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The last tricky curve comes at about 1.6k to go, the traffic islands should be removed but it's still a somewhat tight right-hander into the slightest of left-handers.
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After an easy curve at 1.3k to go, it's an easy shot to the line. There are some slight changes of direction, but none of them close enough to the finish to affect the actual sprint.
 
It's time for a big boy break with Küng, Teunissen, Pedersen, Politt, Frison, Degenkolb,Dewulf and co

I can understand Alpecina, Lotto-Dstny and Jayco pulling all others should hedge their bets. Even QS and Bahrain. Uno-X, Total, Arkea, Israel, DSM, Bora - who are you kidding? You're sprinter doesn't win it against Philipsen it is worth trying from the break!
 
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It's time for a big boy break with Küng, Teunissen, Pedersen, Politt, Frison, Degenkolb,Dewulf and co

I can understand Alpecina, Lotto-Dstny and Jayco pulling all others should hedge their bets. Even QS and Bahrain. Uno-X, Total, Arkea, Israel, DSM, Bora - who are you kidding? You're sprinter doesn't win it against Philipsen it is worth trying from the break!
I just don't think the other teams want to go in the break. I definitely would becaue I think Alpecin won't put more then 1-2 riders at the front. Bahrain, Bora, Jayco are GC teams. Lotto will pull. Quick-Step perhaps, but Jakobsen isn't fit after his crash.
Why don't try? EF, Movistar, Isreal, Trek (Perdersen doesn't win an easy sprint), Uno-X, Arkea, AG2R, Cofidis, TotalEnergie, Astana ... Just try against Roadblock FC :D.
 
At least some posters are optimistic. To me this looks like a slow, boring day with a 3 to 4 rider break. Riders who want to win from a break will rest up to fight in Stage 12.

Edit to add... Stages like this will be much more interesting in 20 years after all trees in the area die of from desertification and the ASO induces echelon racing with artificial wind machines. 2043 can't come soon enough IMHO.
 
The big day for Tadej came. He still has nightmares with stage 11 so he needs to stay calm and be safe. If he don't lose time and crash he is going to win the Tour. I can feel the blood on his pedals when he will hurt Vingegaard with his big attack from far out (+4 km to go).