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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 12: Roanne - Belleville-en-Beaujolais, 168.8k

Another mid-mountain kind of day in the Massif Central, perhaps slightly tougher than Tuesday’s stage. Will this one be equally hectic?

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Map
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The route
Today’s start is in Roanne, hosting the Tour for the first time since a start in 2008 (Sylvain Chavanel’s maiden stage victory) and a professional race for the first time since the 2019 Dauphiné TT where Froome suffered his effectively career-ending crash during the recon. The first 38 kilometres are quite heavy on the climbing: after an uncategorised drag up to Montagny, there’s the Côte de Thizy-les-Bourgs…
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…which backs into the Col des Écorbans, which is quite a bit longer than the categorised part.
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After some easier climbing, there’s a longer descent into the Saône valley, where the riders turn south for a rolling section through the foothills to the intermediate sprint.
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The finish line is a stone’s throw away from here, but there is still a long loop through the Beaujolais mountains before it is reached. This loop takes the riders over three climbs in ascending order of difficulty with very little flat in between them. First up is Col de la Casse Froide, very hard for a cat. 3.
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It is followed by Col de la Croix Montmain, as consistent a climb as you’ll find anywhere.
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The trifecta concludes with the hardest climb of the day, Col de la Croix Rosier, with bonus seconds at its summit.
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The summit of this climb is at 28k to go. After the descent, the riders make for Mont Brouilly, start heading up the easy bit towards the col… then, rather than turning onto the steep section, are diverted round it. This leaves the first 1.8k of the profile below.
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The final section into Belleville-en-Beaujolais is unremarkable.

Final kilometres
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Nice work Devil, as always!

I reckon Jonas and Pogi will stay vigilent again, but be a bit more concervative with their efforts than Tuesday. They have a big day coming up tomorrow. UAE could maybe try to get those bonus seconds, but that will be tough on their team, so I don't think they will care about 8 seconds.

Another chance for Wout to Wout thing up. But there are about 30 riders that all think their ticket into the break is to follow Wout when he launches, so who knows if he ends up being in the break.


If Powless is in the break, should he go for the KoM points, or conserve energy for the stage win battle?
Keeping those polka dots is going be tough, so if he could nip a stage that would be awesome. Both is really tough of cause and requires more than a bit of luck if you are not Pogi.

Mads Pedersen could maybe try to get into the break and help Ciccone or Skjeldmose and grab some bonus points, being second in points GC doesn't really matter, but bike riders sometimes DNF so might as well be in a position to benefit.

I think Kwiatkowski will win this one in the end. He has looked pretty good.
 
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Sometimes the expectations are so high that this could be an absolute nothingburger but if you are going by what we witnessed Tuesday this stage has huge potential.

Climbing right out the gate makes it difficult to block the road.

The first 35ish kms are harder then on tuesday. I would be really nervous if I'm Gaudu or Bardet
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The three climbs in the second half of the day are hard enough that if the race is on and you are in trouble you are dropped for good.

I know tomorrow could be a big gc day but I think everyone from place 8 on downwards wants to make the break and as seen with Bilbao there's not much you can do if the break creation is delyed 40-50 kms in the stage. Lot of teams will be cooked by then and Jumbo/UAE are not burning their teams to hunt meintjes and Landa.

Hope we see a few of the guys from Tuesday in the break. Neilands was flying and the harder course should be even better for him. Zimmermann already said publicly that he has an eye on this stage. I think we all know that alaphilippe, Barguil, Pinot and Martin want to be there. My bet for the stage is Jorgensen.
 
Best case scenario would be a crazy start. A long and hard fight to be in the breakaway, with someone decent ending up in it. Forcing Jumbo to work and keep the group on a tight leash. Those three last climbs later in the stage coming back-to-back-to-back, with almost zero flat km in between them, invites for some exciting racing.

However, if the break goes with no one important in it... the break could easily get +10 minutes and the peloton going at snail pace towards the final. Jumbo controlling those climbs quite easily in the end.