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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 13: Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne - Grand Colombier, 137.8k

The main mountain block opens with a short unipuerto stage to an MTF that was awful in 2020 on a stage with a much harder run-in. And yet, with this Tour, awful racing is the last thing you’d expect here. Will Pogacar and Vingegaard continue their run of never finishing together in the mountain stages?

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The route
After the start in Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne, it’s a flat start through the lake-rich plains of the Dombes, then a flat continuation through the valleys of the southern Jura mountains. Only once before the MTF did ASO see fit to leave the valleys, in favour of an intermediate sprint in Hauteville-Lompnes, birthplace of 1967 Tour and 1969 Vuelta winner Roger Pingeon. After reaching the village, the road continues to rise slightly until the actual summit at Col de la Lèbe.
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Following the descent, the riders head directly for Culoz, where the MTF starts. This is not the hardest side of Grand Colombier and the easier final kilometres necessitate attacks from greater range if it’s going to open up major gaps. In 2020, Jumbo strangled this climb before Pogacar outkicked Roglic for the stage win. Can the Slovenian remain the only one to win a Tour stage here?
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Final kilometres
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This is Sepp's chance at a start towards real redemption.

If he destroys this stage to right the wrong of 2020, then they bring back Col de la Lusette and he rips it from the bottom and destroys the field, especially if he then gives an interview afterwards about how important it is for your team leader to gain time on their rivals wherever possible, his spirit will be saved and his soul will be cleansed of the blight that has afflicted it for the last three years.
 
This is Sepp's chance at a start towards real redemption.

If he destroys this stage to right the wrong of 2020, then they bring back Col de la Lusette and he rips it from the bottom and destroys the field, especially if he then gives an interview afterwards about how important it is for your team leader to gain time on their rivals wherever possible, his spirit will be saved and his soul will be cleansed of the blight that has afflicted it for the last three years.
Are we not forgiving Kuss just yet? Marie Blanque and Tourmalet was quite decent.
 
This is Sepp's chance at a start towards real redemption.

If he destroys this stage to right the wrong of 2020, then they bring back Col de la Lusette and he rips it from the bottom and destroys the field, especially if he then gives an interview afterwards about how important it is for your team leader to gain time on their rivals wherever possible, his spirit will be saved and his soul will be cleansed of the blight that has afflicted it for the last three years.
No, setting up Pogi would not be redemptive.
 
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I don't know. Grand Colombier could be a great mtf but with the tiny gaps between Vingegaard and Pogacar I'm wondering whether one of them will actually be willing to make a full on attack before the final 5 km which are a bit shallow for attacks. So far I have consistently underestimated how aggressively they raced so I don't want to make the same mistake again. But would I be surprised if they only test each other tomorrow before properly attacking on saturday and sunday? Certainly not.
 
I don't know. Grand Colombier could be a great mtf but with the tiny gaps between Vingegaard and Pogacar I'm wondering whether one of them will actually be willing to make a full on attack before the final 5 km which are a bit shallow for attacks. So far I have consistently underestimated how aggressively they raced so I don't want to make the same mistake again. But would I be surprised if they only test each other tomorrow before properly attacking on saturday and sunday? Certainly not.
Pog attacks final steep part then motodrafts away
 
I think both Vinge and Pog will not decide for a big attack. It's because they seem to respect each others power (as Vinge showed on the volcano, where he wasn't as over-confident as before) and also because of a big day on Saturday. Pog will perform a small attack at the end but we will see if he snatches some seconds or not.
 
I don't know. Grand Colombier could be a great mtf but with the tiny gaps between Vingegaard and Pogacar I'm wondering whether one of them will actually be willing to make a full on attack before the final 5 km which are a bit shallow for attacks. So far I have consistently underestimated how aggressively they raced so I don't want to make the same mistake again. But would I be surprised if they only test each other tomorrow before properly attacking on saturday and sunday? Certainly not.
I think a break of 15-20 riders will go in the beginning.

They will get time on the flat in the first 80km. No team will want to push it here, shouldnt push it. Peloton will go slow.

Then it depends on what Pog or Vinge wants to do on the last climb, but I think it will be similar to Puy de Dome. Maybe just something happens at the end but small gaps. Bigger things happening this weekend.

Maybe JV pushed it or dragged the start out on purpose today. Hoping that these days will tire Pog and UAE out, soften the blow of a big attack this weekend. Vinge comes out on top in the end or doesnt lose much over these stages and in the ITT, saving himself for a big performance on Col de Loze. Hoping he cracks Pog there and wins the Tour. Defending his lead on stage 20.
 
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this is the Bastille Day stage which makes me curious as to why Pinot went on the attack yesterday, but maybe he's just not feeling his mountain legs from the Giro, or maybe the level of that race just made him look better


anyway expect a big break of Frenchmen on this one
 
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