Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Devil's Elbow]

The only TT of the race is really more of an MTT. It's also perhaps the biggest question mark for both Pogacar and Vingegaard. Who will earn themselves a buffer for the two remaining mountain stages?

Profile

Map

The route
A short, but mountainous trek between two small, little-heralded towns in the Arve valley, neither of which has hosted the Tour before. The start is flat, but that lasts less than 3 kilometres as the road heads a short distance up the northern slope of the valley to the Côte de la Cascade de Cœur.

The descent is wide, gradual and entirely untechnical. After it ends, there are about 6 kilometres of flat through the larger town of Sallanches, best known for hosting the brutal 1980 World Championships. 20 ascents of Côte de Domancy was more than enough for Hinault to demolish the competition here. Today, it's only the one ascent, but instead of heading back into the valley, the road continues to rise all the way to the finish. This makes for an overall climb of 6.0k at 6.8%. I've stitched together two Cyclingcols profiles to clarify what we're looking at here.

Final kilometres

 

[topcat]

Pog by 11 seconds

 

[Pantani_lives]

If they finish together again that would be good news for Vingegaard.

 

[danielovichdk2]

Wout wins this. Vinge take 20 seconds on pog.

 

[Peyroteo94]

How is the weather?
Yates waiting for Pogacar so Pogacar will have a target in front of him.

 

[The Clogger]

I think Pogacar will have a bigger chance here than if it was more of a flat aero ITT, my best guess is Vingegaard by 5 seconds

 

[BigCoward]

I think pog stomps it, but JV is no slouch so the gap will remain about 10 seconds, but in the other direction.

 

[Red Rick]

1. Pog
2. Vingegaard +15s

Nobody else within 1'30

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Carlos Rodrigues will be close to the top 2

 

[Trofonios]

Wout wins this. Vinge take 20 seconds on pog.

I think Vinge and Pog might just take back too much time on the last climb, it contains a steep section that won't suit Wout. And he couldn't match the best on the hilly TT in Tour de Suisse recently.

 

[wansteadimp]

What is the expected winning time?

 

[Trofonios]

1. Pog
2. Vingegaard +15s

Nobody else within 1'30

Something like this with one exception: Adam Yates will just be 1 minute behind.

 

[Red Rick]

How much of this TT is identical to the 2016 Megeve ITT?

 

[Lequack]

Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

How much of this TT is identical to the 2016 Megeve ITT?

The final 9.5 kilometres here are the 9.5 kilometres into the second time check in 2016 (which came after 10 kilometres, so it's roughly the first half of that TT being the final half of this).

 

[Trofonios]

What is the expected winning time?

My guess is 30 minutes. That would mean an average of 45 kph.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

It's right on the border. The 2017 TT Worlds ended with 3.4k at 9.1%, this ends with 6k at 6.8% of which the first 2.6k average 8.6% so decently comparable, and that one had a mixture of bike changes and staying on the TT bike.

 

[Poursuivant]

Pog to beat Vin by 7 seconds.
Simon Yates to top 5

 

[Peyroteo94]

My guess is 30 minutes. That would mean an average of 45 kph.

That seems too fast. We are going to have a lot of climbing in the TT.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

My guess is 30 minutes. That would mean an average of 45 kph.

No shot. Bergen 2017 was 41.6kph for Dumoulin on a route with relatively less climbing and more flat (D+ is nearly identical but it's compacted into 3/4 of the distance here).

Conversely, Chorges 2013 was 37.2kph for Froome and this TT is slightly closer to Bergen than that IMO, so 40kph seems a decent shout. 40kph exactly is 33:36.

 

[Red Rick]

The final 9.5 kilometres here are the 9.5 kilometres into the second time check in 2016 (which came after 10 kilometres, so it's roughly the first half of that TT being the final half of this).

Do we have the time splits of that one?

 

[Red Rick]

No shot. Bergen 2017 was 41.6kph for Dumoulin on a route with relatively less climbing and more flat (D+ is nearly identical but it's compacted into 3/4 of the distance here).

Conversely, Chorges 2013 was 37.2kph for Froome and this TT is slightly closer to Bergen than that IMO, so 40kph seems a decent shout. 40kph exactly is 33:36.

What does the 2021 Vuelta average look like if you substract 11km at 50kph?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Do we have the time splits of that one?

Yes, but the first time check was atop Côte de Domancy so no way of splitting the flat and the climb. 18:49 for Dumoulin from Sallanches to Combloux, 7:07 of which on the section from Domancy to Combloux.

 

[Volderke]

This TT is tailormade for Pogacar and Vingegaard.
WvA is not even allowed to get this stage.

 

[Ulle97]

I hope it will be dry..... the last thing I'd like to see is riders taking risks and falling on a slippery surface.

Is there any word on the forecast?