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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 2: Vitoria-Gasteiz - Donostia/San Sebastián, 208.9k

The second stage in the Basque Country is also the longest in the entire race. While the finale isn't as hard as that of the previous stage, this is still anything but an easy day.
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Map
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The route
The stage starts from Vitoria-Gasteiz, capital of the Basque Country. Noted for its abundance of green space, it is the birthplace of, amongst others, shock 1999 Vuelta runner-up Igor González de Galdeano and newly-crowned Spanish champion Oier Lazkano. This is the higher, drier and less mountainous part of the Basque Country, and so the 40 kilometres to the intermediate sprint are quite flat indeed.
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After this, the riders head for Krutzeta, barely a climb from this side. It is the border between the provinces of Álava/Araba and Gipuzkoa/Guipúzcoa, the capitals of which are linked by this stage. Following a much more substantial descent and a valley section, it it time for the first climb of the day, Col d'Udana.

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It backs directly into the Côte d'Aztiria.
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The next part of the stage is characterised by uncategorised climbs, first the Alto de Larraitz...
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...and then the easier Alto de Altzo (profile stolen from a very old Itzulia roadbook).
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The next climb is categorised once more, and therefore it's time to switch back to the silly Frenchified names - this is labeled as Côte d'Alkiza.
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By the time the descent of this climb is over, the urban area of Donostia/San Sebastián is within sight. However, there is still a considerable loop through the easternmost part of the province to be made until the finish line is reached. The first half of this section is rolling, with one categorised climb in the shape of Côte de Gurutze.
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Then, right before the French border, the riders turn back on themselves for the main course, Jaizkibel. This is the side that is usually descended. It consists of a first step through the woods, a brief flat section, then a second, much more exposed ascent along the ridge to the summit - in other words, not too different from the classic side. As per the current forecasts, there should be a headwind for the first part, but a crosswind or a cross-tailwind for the more exposed half.
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The moderately technical descent ends at 8 kilometres from the line and the remainder of the stage is spent on wide, often straight roads. There is a 900-metre ramp that lasts into the final 3 kilometres.
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From there, it's a short trek to the finish line, in the part of the city that developed when Donostia/San Sebastián became a popular seaside resort in the late 19th century. The finish is next to the Kursaal, a more recent addition which hosts the country's largest film festival.

Final kilometres
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The eastern part of Donostia/San Sebastián, with the Kursaal in the centre.
 
Don't think a break will get to go the first 40 K, too many teams are interested in the full points for the intermediate sprint.

After that, it seems like a clear day for a breakaway for the "climby" break away artists that dropped 4+ minutes today, like Chaves, Geschke, Asgreen, Campenaerts, Kwiatkowski, Paret-Peintre, Costa, Fraile, Vermaerke, Houle, Craddock, Kragh, Cort, etc.

Some may see UAE keeping the break in line all day, for the bonus seconds on the last climb, but I'd think that was too much energy spent for a fairly small upside.
 
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I actually suspect UAE will try to line up a sprint for Pog.

JV will have to count on WVA then. Vinge realizes he will leak some seconds but his tactic is pretty simple - stay safe and wait patiently until it's time to go thermonuclear (afterwards there won't be many survivors left, if any). If Pogacar is strong enough to stick to his wheel good for him, then he will likely win the race.
 
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Van Aert, MVDP or Pog. Given it's a flat sprint van Aert has the upper hand.
UAE want bonus seconds for Pog so the break is probably doomed.
Since Bini dropped on Vivero today I doubt he will be there in the end tomorrow.
 
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VDP doesn't believe so. He says there's no shot tomorrow.
Which is a bit odd, because if he's the 20th-25th rider over the climb again he has a real shot this time. Yes, he's more likely to be the 20th-25th over a climb that's too steep for him than one that's too long for him, but it's weird that he's writing it off completely before the stage has even started considering that he probably has only three chances after tomorrow.
 
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