Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 5: Pau - Laruns, 162.7k

[Devil's Elbow]

The first mountain stage is a near copy of the stage Hirschi almost won after a two-hour solo attack in 2020, the only difference being that they approach Soudet from the west rather than via Hourcère. Yes, it’s a descent finish, but the final climb is very steep and saw solid action last time round, so it’s time for Pogacar and Vingegaard to find out how closely matched they are, and for everyone else to learn whether they have any hope against these two.

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The route
After the start in ASO’s favourite place in the world, we start with a long flat section that should be the scene of the first proper battle to get into the breakaway. In 2020, it even lasted until part way up the first climb. A little over halfway through this section, there’s the intermediate sprint, which could therefore well offer full points to the sprinters.

When the flat gives way, it does so with a bang, as it’s time for the first HC climb of this Tour - Col de Soudet, from its west side, last seen in full in the 2016 Vuelta. With this being one of only two HC climbs that aren’t the final one of the day in the whole race, it’s doubly important for the KOM battle.

After a long descent down the side of the climb where Froome destroyed everyone in 2015 and some more flat, the easiest climb (by far) of the day, Col d’Ichère, follows.

After that, it’s time for the main course. Marie-Blanque is a slightly easier version of Fedaia, minus the scenery. The final 4 kilometres average 11.6% and should shatter both most of the GC group and some hopes and dreams.

The descent is also like that of Fedaia, in that it’s preceded by a bit of a plateau, much less steep than the climb and unremarkable in terms of technical demands. It ends just over 8 kilometres to the line, to keep Adam Hansen the mayor of Laruns, finish town for the third time in six years, happy.

Final kilometres

 

[Izzyeviel]

shame they made the course 18k too long.

 

[Netserk]

Pogi will set up a Yates attack, Vingegaard will be glued to the wheel of Pogi. The two of them will finish in a group of 10 riders.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

shame they made the course 18k too long.

Why start at Lasseube?

 

[Netserk]

Teuns to take yellow, Pinot the stage.

 

[DNP-Old]

UAE should drop a bomb on Marie Blanque, Yates should attack. Force Vingegaard to make a decision.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Would have liked a Spandelles east - Soudet north - Aubisque descent finish as that's the only of the three ways to get to Laruns they hadn't done yet, but this will still be a solid stage.

Pogacar and Vingegaard to drop everyone, Vingegaard then refuses to pull leading to a second group catching them, only for Pogacar to win the sprint with Vingegaard getting 0 instead of 6 bonus seconds, so it will be a fun day on the forum.

 

[Netserk]

UAE should drop a bomb on Marie Blanque, Yates should attack. Force Vingegaard to make a decision.

Easy decision. Wait for Kelderman to set pace.

 

[DNP-Old]

Easy decision. Wait for Kelderman to set pace.

I would like that battle, as I think Yates would win it. Jumbo otoh should absolutely put a Benoot in the break.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Pog sprint win or Adam breakaway win. Preferably Adam gaining more time for Vinge to get a taste of the 1-2 punch.

 

[Netserk]

I would like that battle, as I think Yates would win it. Jumbo otoh should absolutely put a Benoot in the break.

Yes, Benoot and Van Baarle should cover breaks. Maybe Van Aert as well. It's more important to have a good rider in the break tomorrow than the day after.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Fwiw Jack Haig has dropped almost four minutes in the past two stages after looking good in the Basque Country so that's definitely one to keep an eye on here.

 

[sam6]

This is the day Pogi will finally drop Vingegaard. He will win solo and put a minute into him

 

[zlev11]

all out gc warfare on the marie blanque

 

[Gigs_98]

I have the suspicion that not much will happen tomorrow. Our low expectations for opening days of gts have kinda overshadowed the fact that while two days in a row Pogacar and Vingegaard were in a 1v1 situation, neither dared to really attack. Yes, this climb is significantly harder but I don't know if I expect that to change. I have the feeling Pogacar went into this Tour trying not to make unnecessary attacks but rather focus on gaining a few seconds here and there, while I'm not sure this is the place where Vingegaard wants to make his big attack.

I think Vingegaard will really try to drop Pogacar for the first time on stage 9, until then I suspect them to both be willing to play the waiting game.

 

[ashhutch1997]

Unfortunately these Pyrenees stages are in the wrong order, I fear riders will be saving themselves for Thursdays stage...
Hope I'm proven wrong!

 

[sam6]

I think tomorrow is going to be a big day. The final climb looks actually hard. Plus I think it's going to rain. I think we have enough evidence now to say Pogi is better when it rains or at least when it is not quite so hot. Think back to 2021 when he attacked on the weekend in the Alps, even though the stages there were not the hardest of the route, and put in so much time and then didn't manage to drop Vingegaard and Carapaz in the rest of the route when it was much hotter and then struggle in Tokyo which was mega hot even though it was perfect route for him. Then last year he struggled because it was the biggest heat wave ever, and he looked a lot better on the cobbles and opening TT in Denmark when it was not so hot. Plus how he's always so good in the spring when it's not so hot. I think he knows that he will not get many rainy mountain stages and so he will go all-out beast mode. I reckon tomorrow and Thursday will be like stage 8/9 from the 2021 Tour and then Jonas will maybe take some time back in the rest of the Tour, especially on Col de la Loze he will drop Pogi big time but I think Pogi will just cling on to the overall

 

[hfer07]

stage win hunters should seize the opportunity, otherwise Poga & Yates will play hard alongside Jumbo.

 

[ontheroad]

Very tentative prediction. I think UAE will drill it on Soudet in an attempt to drop some of the Jumbo doms which could make it difficult for the break to succeed. Keep Maijka and Yates with Pog before he launches his attack on the steep part of Marie Blanque. Vingegaard will just stick to Pogs back wheel like glue again and he won't drop him and the 2 of them will finish together. We could even see the reduced peloton come back together if Vingegaard refuses to ride.

 

[Red Rick]

No way it goes 1v1 and Vingegaard refuses to pull. Van Aert isn't gonna be around.

Vingegaard to drop everyone on Marie Blanque and win solo. I don't think it makes sense to wait.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So finally time for serious climbs in the Pyrenees! This is the first stage when Pogacar or Vingegaard may actually decide for a serious attack as the second part of MB is very hard and the stage overall is challenging as well. Whoever of the two favourites attack he will not be able to drop the other IMO. But they will drop the rest of guys, who should like the fact that top dogs are not willing to cooperate with each other (I think Pog may not want to do it if Vinge attacks due to Vinge's previous refusals) so maybe the rest can still catch up. No matter if the top2 make it to the finish or not Pogacar (given his explosivity) remains the favourite for tomorrow (and for stage 6 as well).

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Why would Pogačar attack here? I think just taking the bonus seconds should be enough, unless you think he has some sort of giant disadvantage compared to here on even bigger climbs, which I think is an exaggeration.

 

[Pantani_lives]

UAE might give the yellow jersey away. I can hardly believe they want to defend it for the whole three weeks.

Some candidates for the breakaway: Powless, Chaves, Pinot, Martin, Barguil, Mohoric, Jungels, Aranburu, Jorgensen, Martinez...

 

[Mayomaniac]

No way it goes 1v1 and Vingegaard refuses to pull. Van Aert isn't gonna be around.

Vingegaard to drop everyone on Marie Blanque and win solo. I don't think it makes sense to wait.

If Kuss isn't there on Marie Blanque/has a bad day UAE should send Adam Yates on the attack while Pogacar sits on Vingegaard's wheel.

 

[Potomac]

A more fun looking profile than these last two days.