Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 12: Aurillac > Villenueve-sur-Lot, 203.6km

Oct 13, 2021
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OP by @Devil's Elbow here:
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/tour-de-france-2024-stage-by-stage-analysis.39775/post-3032426

The last 200k+ stage of the race is the westward half of the transition from Massif Central to Pyrenees.
The Route
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The start is in Aurillac, capital of and only place even remotely resembling a city in the Cantal. It sits at the point where the higher ranges of the Massif Central give way to the lower plateaus in the western part, where mountainous stages give way to sprintier ones. The southwestern half of the Massif Central has always one of the more remote and less populous French reasons, so while Aurillac has been the regional centre since the Middle Ages, it also never played much of a role beyond the region. Its location at the base of the ‘high’ Massif Central means the Tour has often passed here on either the way in or the way out, for the last time in 2011 when Mark Cavendish won a comparable sort of stage.

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For the second time this race, the Tour starts a stage by skirting around the hometown of a former winner, this time that of 1931 and 1934 champion Antonin Magne. Instead, it’s a rolling start, before a longer descent into the Dordogne valley. The way out of said valley is the first KOM of the day, Côte d’Autoire.

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After passing by the Gouffre de Padirac, France’s most-visited cave, and a short section on the furthest extent of the causses (the plateaus of the Massif Central), we pass the famous pilgrimage site of Rocamadour and do the final section of the 2022 TT in reverse. This includes the second KOM, Côte de Rocamadour (no profile available, in the TT it was the descent where Vingegaard nearly crashed). Following some uncategorised climbing, there is an intermediate sprint in Gourdon.

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From here, the hills become lower, but the flatter roads remain mostly unexposed. There is one last KOM at the Côte de Montcléra, then join the Lot in the town of Fumet. From here, there were two options to go to the finish: cross the Lot to take in some decent hills, or stick to the northern side of the river where there aren’t any. Take a guess which option ASO went for. It’s the fourth sprint stage that they could have done something more interesting with – in fact, there’s a 1k at almost 10% hill overlooking the town…

Instead, it’s a finale littered with road furniture if the roadbook is to be believed. They’ve even marked a traffic island at 200 metres from the line, which I think will be removed anyway but if not, then heads should roll, because the riders certainly would…

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Villeneuve-sur-Lot was among the largest of the many bastides founded to replace a town destroyed by the Albigensian Crusade (or, as we would put it had it happened today, the Albigensian genocide), hence the regular road pattern in the city centre. The bridge over the Lot was first built when southwestern France was under English control. It served as a river port on the Lot, which flows into the Garonne not too far from. here, for places as far away as the Auvergne, where the stage started. Its location was far less suitable upon the development of the railway and industrialization, and thus it has declined relative to the wider region. This will be its third time hosting, after two breakaway stages in 1996 and 2000.

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What to expect?

Fairly sheltered and heading west all day – even with the elevation gain, that’s a bad scenario for anyone hoping for something other than a full bunch sprint. Still, we definitely can’t rule out the breakaway here.
 
May 6, 2021
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Stage should be better than the usual sprints at least.

Today was incredibly difficult even before the proper mountains started, lots of tired legs and the opening looks really good for a proper break to form.
 
May 10, 2015
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Everyone but Alpecin, Intermarché (well honestly they too to protect green jersey) and Jayco should go for a break. Maybe Lotto with De Lie as last km is slightly uphill and it's probably his last chance, but Arkea, UNO X, DSM, Israel, Cofidis, Total, EF, ... should go ham from the start. It's not that easy to control.
 
Mar 20, 2022
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Another borefest... can we have two consecutive days of good racing for once? Active rest day for GC riders.
 
Feb 18, 2015
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I don't get why they didn't use a stage like this to make the start really tough, giving the break a chance. There are just way too many pure sprint stages in this part of the Tour.
 
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May 29, 2019
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A lot of tired legs so likely resting and avoiding crashes to be the main goal. For people saying on why aren't they again made to ride some hard stage. And how much vertical elevation meters are you going to do tomorrow? 10? Moving your ass on and off the chair.

Show some respect you have nothing to complain about at this Tour edition. If you are complaining it's you.
 
Aug 3, 2015
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A lot of tired legs so likely resting and avoiding crashes to be the main goal. For people saying on why aren't they again made to ride some hard stage. And how much vertical elevation meters are you going to do tomorrow? 10? Moving your ass on and off the chair.

Show some respect you have nothing to complain about at this Tour edition. If you are complaining it's you.
You make no sense as per usual. Whats your point?
 
Mar 4, 2011
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Really gorgeous region—we should get some good heli views particularly of Rocamadour. Stayed in St.Cere just last summer to explore the region, including Gouffre de Padirac, which is just wild to visit. You come up to like the biggest f&cking hole in the ground you can imagine, into which you clamber down a series of metal staircases to get to the bottom, then starting walking through a beautiful limestone cavern until reaching a subterranean lake, THEN getting into boats to cross the large lake, and then getting out to keep walking through the cavern and up toward the cave roof. Then do all the same in reverse. It’s like a self-propelled Disney ride made (mostly) by nature.
 
Apr 3, 2009
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Stage should be better than the usual sprints at least.

Today was incredibly difficult even before the proper mountains started, lots of tired legs and the opening looks really good for a proper break to form.
Today had more vertical than stage 14! And it was raced hard. For sure there are gonna be some tired legs with 7223 feet of climbing on offer. Tough day. Agreed this looks really good for the break.
 
May 14, 2017
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I really hope for a proper breakaway. If not at least the intermediate sprint could be interesting. Can/should Intermarche copy Trek's approach and push hard on the minor climbs leading up to it? Are three ~2km/6% climbs and a slightly longer 3-4% climb enough to drop or at least tire out Philipsen?
 
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Dec 2, 2020
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Good day for Van der Poel to go in the break, he said he wants a stage win in 2nd half of the race and only 18 is the other good option.
 
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Aug 5, 2009
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Another opportunity for the break but they will need a decent time gap unlike yesterday when the gap was never going to be big enough.
 
Jan 31, 2021
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Good day for Van der Poel to go in the break, he said he wants a stage win in 2nd half of the race and only 18 is the other good option.
Would Alpecin be cool with MVDP going 1 vs 15 (or whatever) in a break vs a pretty good chance of another Philipsen win (I'd say 40% or better)?
 
Jul 2, 2019
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Today is a day where I actually like the parcours. The GC days have been spread a bit thin but with the exception of the ITT they've all been exciting enough that I'm happy for a few days to cool down and relax.
 
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Oct 30, 2023
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Would Alpecin be cool with MVDP going 1 vs 15 (or whatever) in a break vs a pretty good chance of another Philipsen win (I'd say 40% or better)?
I would think they are interested in points classification jersey
 
May 29, 2019
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